Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

BlueColorSlave

New Members
  • Content Count

    23
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About BlueColorSlave

  • Rank
    HPC Newbie

Profile Information

  • Location
    down south
  1. I moved from a rental in Snaresbrook about 2 months ago. I observed see the number of properties up for sale on my 700 yard walk to the tube easily double between October and December. Contrary to my expectations where not just flats either, there is perhaps as significant a force behind down sizing as buy to letter’s selling up. I would accept that at face value house prices appear sticky on the way down. I would say I seen a modest 5% “advertised” drop on houses that fairly valued back in June. Yes the ridiculous 50K over valued houses’ have indeed come down more but they are not really figure in my assessment. Do bear in mind that although advertised prices have fallen only modestly nearly all sellers are prepared to cut you a good deal. Despite actually knowing I was catching a falling knife in terms of house prices I bought a 4 bed house in Oxted in December. I was pissed off renting and the wife was getting broody. The thing I observed regards this sticky house price syndrome was that on actually talking to agents they where all prepared to knock more off the advertised price, the smallest compromise out of half a dozen tentative discussions being 15K. I was focused solely in looking at Billericay, Wanstead, South Woodford, Carshalton Beeches and Oxted. The one thing that really made me make the jump to buy instead of waiting a year was a seller willing to meet me half way. My house had dropped from a cheeky 650K to 600K making it the best value house in the area by at least a 10K margin. That still was not enough for me considering that in my opinion by end of 2008 we will see a 10% to 20% drop in nominal terms. The seller’s dad was a builder and really went for the sale, no indecisiveness as would be expected from a typical family home sale. He knocked off a further 25K and left me all the white goods. I was lucky I got a seller in the trade. In your shoes I wouldn’t take my word on the sticky prices being an illusion, get out there, do some viewings, make some cheeky offers and satisfy yourself that wow the market really is dropping like a stone.
  2. Thanks wsn03, I haven’t completely walked away from this website however. I was going to being indignant and just never post again. However I’ve been really impressed with some the supportive comments made. Genuine, intelligent and considered opinions, exactly what I’d expect from users of one of my favourite sites as opposed to all that bitter fuelled written aggression. Those comments about misplaced anger etc were so accurate, really sums up a big flaw in our society. Anyway I just wanted to say “thanks people” and although I will not be posting in a hurry again I still look at this web site every day. It’s a gem of collated information and not just about house prices either. Ps. Don’t you just wish the market would wise up and knock 20% + off their prices now instead slowly slogging it out for another year or 2 and then going on to over correct for another year or 2 after that. The whole HPC just looks so inevitable now. These days I might have a bit of a deposit but I don’t have the determination to wait 4 years, another 2 years waiting after the past 5 or 6 will be tolerable however. Ps. ps. Yes Electric I did mean to spell it Collar, good spot.
  3. I took you advice the other night and posted on the ancedotals site, unfortunately i got severly slagged off, are these forums a bit on the agressive side by any chance?

  4. Well on my 2nd post on my first day on this web site i've been called scum. Thanks chaps. I thought the first 2 replies were abit vitrioloic but then the 3rd reply seems to bring some balance. Now however i'm just plain hurt. Myself and my wife graudated in 2001 and have been working like mad ever since. We want kids but don't want to bring into a world where there parents can't even gaurantee a roof over their head. We havn't taken a holiday in 5 years and are constantly saving. By 2005 i had saved a meager 22K, house prices had London were going up more in London per day than i was saving per month at one point. I took the decision to exploit what i could see was the same trend in N. Ireland, in a perfect world i wouldn't have had to. Your the 3rd person to completely ingore the thrust of my first post and just personally attack me. Well i'n not going to insult you but i will repeat my advice, if you are hovering on whether to buy or not then don't. If the N.Irelnad pattern repeats in London true to form you will see clear price drops by January, even with the upcoming panic cut in BOE interest rates.
  5. I agree with all 3 of you, I used the same BTL feedback loop that screwed me over in London to exploit the situation in Belfast. Yes I’m a bit hypocritical complaining but just because I participated in it does not mean I’m going rationalise it as a good thing. As for ripping people, the family in question had their own house double in value over the past 2 years and I expect their mortgage is roughly consistent in size with what I was previously. But come on chaps, just get over your desire to slag me off and appreciate the back ground evidence. I can see huge similarities between now and 5 or 6 months ago in Northern Ireland. I am in an unusual position of being comment on local knowledge from both areas. So to repeat my advice to those thinking of buying, don’t rush in when the BOE cuts rates but at the very least wait until January. Ps Your spot on, I don’t consider myself a real BTL Landlord, flipper is a much more accurate term.
  6. I have a few anecdotes for you: 1) I sold my buy to let in Belfast 2 weeks ago, i made 128K in just over 2 years (probably closer to 110K once all the overheads taken into account). Point is i missed the peak by about 2 to 3 months and it cost me about 25K. That’s how quick it can turn. N. Ireland is ahead of the curve, the stagnation London has seen over the past month is a mirror image of what happened in Northern Ireland 6 months ago. If the pattern holds true in 3 to 4 months time we'll see at least a 5% drop London. Modest yes, personally I'm hoping for more due to London's over exposure to the financial services market. 2) My old work colleague’s sister is a partner in conveyancing firm, in Essex, she states the work is drying up fast and they are encouraging their staff to take annual leave. Ironically she’s still buying a BTL apartment, but at a significant 20% discount. 3) My wife’s work colleague had his mortgage provider withdraw their offer under a very weak pretext, basically didn't want to lend the money at that rate any more because the credit markets had turned. He (and the whole chain) where upset. The 2 people in the chain above him each made 5K concessions to keep the deal alive. He called his cousin over the weekend; his cousin is an estate agent in Walton On Thames. Basically his cousin said business had just dropped off to nothing in the past 5 to 6 weeks. Note this behaviour predates N.Rock. He has now pulled out of the purchase altogether. My point is if you have been renting for years then do not buy now, hold out for 6 more months. No doubt the BOE will cut interest rates and no doubt the BBC news website will publish another dozen research papers sponsored by the CML (council of mortgage lenders) but just hold onto your deposit and wait. I also have a few opinions for you: 1) Ultimately I’m biased as I want to see a HPC and thus get a nicer family home that with luck does not entail a 2 to 4 hour commute into the city. That said I believe a HPC is good for our society. Northern Ireland starting its housing boom 2 to 3 years late may have saved my bacon but I know exactly how unfair it is on those left behind. There must be millions of hard working young couples who are putting off starting families later and later to avoid bringing their children into a poverty trap. The house price boom has been one amoral feedback loop that has fed the profits of greedy landlords at the expense of younger generations. 2) It would be poetic justice to see the BTL industry in UK unfold as exponentially worse than that of the US sub prime market. At least those Americans for the most part stretched their finances in an attempt to better their families. Conversely the UK’s BTL investors ruthlessly exploited the old saying “It takes money to make money” at the direct expense of others. I only wish I had sold my Buy To Let in Belfast to another investor and not a family as I fear Northern Ireland will be as badly hit as London in the long run.
  7. Wow there, Mr FP. Don't let the vested interest wind you up. That chap can't even answer a straight question never mind add value to this forum with those sheep like opinions. I however have a few antidotes for you: 1) I sold my buy to let in Belfast 2 weeks ago, i made 128K in just over 2 years (probably closer to 110K once all the overheads taken into account). Point is i missed the peak by about 2 to 3 months and it cost me about 25K. That’s how quick it can turn. N. Ireland is ahead of the curve, the stagnation London has seen over the past month is a mirror image of what happened in Northern Ireland 6 months ago. If the pattern holds true in 3 to 4 months time we'll see at least a 5% drop London. Modest yes, personally i'm hoping for more due to London's over exposure to the financial services market. 2) My old work colleague’s sister is a partner in conveyancing firm, in Essex, she states the work is drying up fast and they are encouraging their staff to take annual leave. Ironically she’s still buying a BTL apartment, but at a significant 20% discount. 3) My wife’s work colleague had his mortgage provider withdraw there offer under a very weak pretext, basically didn't want to lend the money at that rate any more because the credit markets had turned. He (and the whole chain) where upset. The 2 people in the chain above him each made 5K concessions to keep the deal alive. He called his cousin over the weekend; his cousin is an estate agent in Walton On Thames. Basically his cousin said business had just dropped off to nothing in the past 5 to 6 weeks. Note this behaviour predates N.Rock. My point is if you have been renting for years then do not buy now, hold out for 6 more months. No doubt the BOE will cut interest rates and no doubt the BBC news website will publish another dozen research papers sponsored by the CML (council of mortgage lenders) but just hold onto your deposit and wait. Above all ignore the sheep like opinions and blatant vested interests of individuals on blog sites who never answer direct questions
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.