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Crash Buyer

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Everything posted by Crash Buyer

  1. The main UK providers are ETF Securities (commodity ETFs), iShares, DBX trackers and Lyxor (equity ETFs). As HAM said any good online broker will allow you to trade them. My 2p regarding the issues you raised: - be very wary of any futures based commodity ETFs (the contango / option roll effect can wipe out the majority of any gains, trading is hard enough as it is). I'd go for an equity "style" ETF instead to avoid these issues (i.e. agri companies rather than agri commodity) - always go for physical if you can (precious & ind metals) - stick to the most liquid ETFs - you are exposed to exchange rates whether denominated in USD or GBP due to the underlying usually being priced in USD
  2. I can sympathise - its been a frustrating few weeks. I'm down to a few core positions having offloaded all my trading longs over the past couple of months. Sitting in cash waiting for the inevitable correction. Seemed like the right thing to do and it's hard to regret it having been caught out last April.
  3. Its hard to be bullish looking at that chart. Nice one CF. But there's always a reason to close up (chart from Bespoke).
  4. http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/2/9/market-breadth-check-up.html Well I don't know either. But I've been taking profits for the past few weeks. Cash looks quite good right now.
  5. Yes, can't be long now (not sure about the bus though). Although I thought the same last month. No point forecasting, only the P&L counts in this game.
  6. Thanks for posting this RK, much appreciated. All good reading but I found this bit particularly interesting (page 2) Edit: Formatting
  7. Although the piggys were the usual suspects and Egypt is not (the middle east is more scary than southern Europe, fear of the unknown, what "those extremists" might do etc), therefore maybe enough to justify an irrational panic and a correction. Say about 10%.
  8. Nadeem's latest update http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25805.html
  9. Some historical comparisons http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/bull-market-duration-and-strength/
  10. Nadeem did OK last year, the Dow forecast was pretty good. Only concern was a flip-flop in the short-term updates around the April top, but the annual forecast wasn't bad (a bit on the high side but the trajectory was broadly correct, with mid-year weakness and a late rally). Agree with you comments on tone, not exactly academic in style, but I don't mind. Its the forecast that counts.
  11. Agreed, who knows how far this can go? Not long ago, S&P 1300 looked like it was weeks away. IMO it's worth missing the first few points of a move if it results in improved risk/reward (rather than guessing, which is the alternative).
  12. Reading through various blogs last night it seems like everyone has just turned bullish. Can't be long now. USD creating a bit of headroom for the correction?
  13. I couldn't agree more - the 'internal battle'. Its interesting how many successful traders say they sleep at 9pm, wake at 5am and exercise for an hour, no alcohol or smoking etc. I suppose a bit of yoga would help too! I noted in a previous post you only speculate tax efficiently - this goes for LUK2 as well?
  14. I've only recently started looking at EW myself, but not really utilised it properly yet. Also, the article I posted a few days ago from Quantifiable Edges would reinforce your forecast (historic data suggests no upside edge to mid/late Jan).
  15. My own gut feeling is also that the 5 Jan top will be surpassed to draw in more 'dumb money' before the correction begins. Particularly as the general consensus amongst experts was that a correction was imminent following the Santa rally (so why not exploit the consensus - you know who). Reporting season (from Bespoke)
  16. S&P down just 2 points at the close. That's pretty bullish considering payrolls missed consensus by over 30%. Edit: Formatting
  17. My initial reaction is also fail, but then again, who made the consensus (and why ) and how bullish is it really? HAM usually posts these below, but here it is anyway. http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2011/01/tough-streak-after-positive-first-days.html Edit: Quote added
  18. Mine was too, but I've changed jobs since and have a bit more to do now. Anyone here lucky enough not to be a wage slave (I think there are one or two entrepreneurs out there)? http://www.kirkreport.com/category/freereports/page/18/ Edit: Post tidied up
  19. Happy New Year. As much for my benefit as anyone else's, I'm posting the following (kind of a new year's resolution), although these are aimed mainly at day traders. http://www.kirkreport.com/category/freereports/
  20. Your 71 year wave is longer than the orthodox 50 years, which doesn't really fit with the evidence nowadays anyway (although it fitted OK in the 1800s). So why not indeed? Personally I'm not making any predictions about the medium term as I was sure that the HPC was imminent for most of the past decade! In the short term, I do expect a minor correction in the next few weeks but I'm just going with the flow whilst the uptrend continues.
  21. I stand corrected (actually I'm sitting down).
  22. I agree, not exactly season's greetings and goodwill to all men but I found it a good pep talk from the coach. Up and at 'em! Here's to another year of learning and getting better at doing this. Thanks CF. For comparison, how do you see the medium term panning out? Adam has the following: http://www.zealllc.com/2010/ostrich2.htm Therefore a secular bear for 2000 to 2017, with the current cyclical bull top at some point during 2012 to 2014 around the previous high (S&P 1500).
  23. IMO sentiment will revert once the seasonal December rally is complete.
  24. OK well you all seem to be off for Christmas but I've been reviewing some predictions in 2010 and found the following. Suggests we may be some way from the top (2013?) if history repeats. Also From the Zeal essay http://www.zealllc.com/2010/spxlevi.htm
  25. Christmas message from Adam Hamilton. http://www.zealllc.com/2010/tradeall.htm
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