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Crash Buyer

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  1. According to the AA the average is 97.7p/litre, compared to 86.6p a year ago (up 13%). I'm sure that the ONS version is perfectly clear, but unfortunately, they don't tell you how the civil service works. I previously posted this, which summarises the real method. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry795726 Excellent post!
  2. Exactly. Bootle is Mr 'Death of Inflation'. Bootle book A purely imaginary world? Yes. New and used copies from 1 cent - still overpriced
  3. Maybe Brown could engineer another fake election to encourage the Tories to outline some more policies. Then repeat the process every three months until the real election in 2009 or 2010. Actually, this is only part of the NuLab plan to copy the Tories - they are stealing some old Tory ideas as well. They have already copied the dumping a leader during the middle of a third term. They will shortly follow this by copying a recession and HPC.
  4. I agree with some of your sentiments but the Adam Curtis series 'The Trap' did address some of your points as follows - The programme argued that the theory does not work in practice. However there was the largest ever UK demo, against the Iraq war, before the war had even started. Could people ever control their govts? Curtis argued that by encouraging people to act in their own self interest, Game Theory had unintended consequences. People did not behave as expected and also came to regard politicans as self-interested bureaucrats. I agree with your comments about the merits of post office privatisation, however I think most people are totally indifferent to almost all political issues, even when they are affected by them. With regard to the housing bubble, the recession will cause the herd instinct to change but I don't think the sheeple will become activists or realise their mistakes. They will simply follow the new herd instinct, that housing is a bad investment.
  5. Exactly. When CPI was 3.1%, the BoE told us that lower energy bills would be the main driver for lower CPI in 2007. The price cuts never appeared to the extent that was forecast, but inflation somehow reached the 'required' level anyway.
  6. As Galloway said "Blair and Brown are two cheeks of the same ars*". Another day, another cynical spin attempt. Then Brown completely bottled it when faced with the weak nature of NuLab support in the polls. With reference to house prices, the BBC is suddenly turning bearish - will NuLab attempt to counter any move away from constant govt propaganda ("house prices always go up" etc) ?
  7. The regional data table is interesting. MoM% either zero or down in 6 of 10 regions. Supports other evidence that the market is being held up by London/SE.
  8. It has worked in the short term but inevitably lower real wages means lower economic demand and therefore recession (and probably deflation).
  9. A perfectly valid explanation of individual events, but what about the subtext of the media and political establishment? The Power of Nightmares - Adam Curtis
  10. Excellent programme (from the BBC as well !). I also highly recommend two other series by Adam Curtis, for those that haven't seen them. The Power of Nightmares (war on terror and the Neo-cons) BBC summary The Trap - What Happened to our Dream of Freedom (a good demolition of NuLab) Wikipedia summary
  11. Graph from CML (spit) showing the ridiculous increase in the number of BTL mortgages each year. BTL chart As I mentioned on the other thread on this story, the BBC news last night sounded very bearish on the RICS report. Who'd have thought it from the Brown Broadcasting Corporation?
  12. How the times have changed - they are using the B word. Last night on BBC News there was also very bearish reporting of the RICS survey, where the BBC reporter actually said prices are falling Sentiment has changed very rapidly since the credit crunch and Northern Rock fiasco.
  13. I suspect that once the recession hits, NuLab poll ratings will collapse and the party will descend into in-fighting. The Tories look set for an extended run in power - I agree it could easily be 15-20 years. Voters will again end up with a party that is used to power and runs the country like a private estate. The Tories will be no different to NuLab in this sense, but voters should learn that its better to have some competition between the parties rather than letting them stay in power for 15 years each.
  14. IMO this is not going to work for Brown. Just as the early election spin backfired spectacularly, I think most voters will see this as the cynical trick it is. Notably, the Brown Broadcasting Corporation website is almost silent on the Pre Budget Report today. Where are the usual big headlines on the subject? The BBC headline below is hardly positive. Brown set to face fresh attacks
  15. Some garbage Treasury data from the report - GDP growth 2008 2.25% 2009 2.75% 2010 2.75% CPI 2% (obviously) PSBR 2007-2008 £38bn Overall very optimistic - above trend growth for most of the period without generating an increase in inflation. What else should we expect? Household consumption 2006 2% 2007 3% 2008 2% 2009 2.5% 2010 2.5% RHDI (disposable income) 2006 1.25% 2007 1.5% 2008 2% 2009 2.5% 2010 2.5% Despite poor growth in disposable incomes over the past couple of years, they are expected to suddenly accelerate in the next couple of years. So an increase in wages (faster than taxes/bills) is expected to come to the rescue?
  16. Sure, but the sheeple must always have someone else to blame for their mistakes. Its always someone else's fault. Someone previously coined the term "Financial Darwinism" on HPC - we are now seeing the start of this process.
  17. The 18 year cycle can be viewed as one of several economic cycles, for example as explained by Joseph Schumpeter. I recently posted on this subject - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=790746
  18. How about the traditional NuLab trick of stealing some Tory policies (this time a cheaper version of the inheritance tax proposal)?
  19. No problem, fellow fool Indeed, but it helps to set out the weak current state of the market, from which we start. In a recession, an increase in unemployment will lead to leasing companies offloading large volumes of 1-3 yr old company cars into the auctions. This will depress residual values. LOL, like your suggestion of selling RHD cars into LHD markets I think you need to obviously need to start with the basics. I would suggest starting with the Wealth of Nations before moving on to the General Theory.
  20. It helps if you know something about the industry, or economics. As I posted earlier, there is massive over supply in the used market. Refer to this link for some data - BCA Sales of durable goods tend to decline in a recession. Also, educate yourself at the link below. Wikipedia
  21. IMO yes In the last crash, residual values for used cars did not drop dramatically in nominal terms, but did fall in real terms (due to high inflation). The used market is characterised by over supply (as there are around 2.5m new cars registered a year) and prices have been generally falling since 1999 (a good year is a gain of 2 or 3%, a bad year -10%). There was a boom in used values from 1994 to 1998. I would expect the used market to be hit hard by the imminent recession.
  22. This would fit into the historical pattern. UK nominal interest rates have tended to be higher than US/European rates. If this continues, driven by the pathetic underlying UK economic fundamentals (sick man of Europe etc), then Sterling may be protected relative to USD to an extent. Of course, PPP suggests Sterling is overvalued but this has been the case for over 10 years. I'm sure there have been many reports like this over the past 10 years predicting its imminent demise. Stagflation should lead the UK into recession and should also require the higher rates that could protect Sterling.
  23. We effectively have a presedential system in the UK, with the cabinet rubber-stamping the PM's decisions. This argument justifies a General Election. If the PM really was 'first amongst equals', then Brown could legitimately avoid an early election. However, as I posted previously on the 'Tories are floundering' thread, I don't expect an early election and if there was, Brown would probably lose his majority. In addition, the Tories have done exactly the same - Major did not call an early election either.
  24. I fully agree - lazy journalism at its worst. Even using ONS data their reporting is complete nonsense.
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