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Crash Buyer

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Everything posted by Crash Buyer

  1. That misrepresents what I meant. Much of the empire was built up initially under the guise of trade (Asia has a long and prosperous history of trade), but did not last that way - you should ask why the UK could not conform to an existing trading model. Also invading countries is no accident - again I would point to Iraq as a current example. Yes there were many interests and reasons. However, you can't have it both ways - your argument implies that empire was an accident, but the Iraq disaster was not (that the US deliberately abandoned an optimal option of supporting Saddam). The US model is arrogant, corrupt and incompetent - also witness the New Orleans response. The US underestimated the opposition to its aims in Iraq. I would say that Iraq displays the results of 'unintended consequences' (to the US at least). Oil is one reason, but a major reason, because controlling oil confers power (note that official records show that the US was prepared to invade Saudi during the Arab-Isreali war to ensure control of supplies). Another reason is that the US also wanted to order the region to conform to its capitalist shock therapy model (witness the laws passed by Bremer in Iraq), as the middle east defies US hegemony. I never said the US govt is a single entity - of course there are different interests. However I didn't want to write a long essay on the subject. I think you are emphasising the wrong part of the overall picture here. Also when you say "cannot keep hundreds of millions of people ... in an Empire they don't want to be part of anymore" I think you will find the vast majority never wanted to be in the empire and were not asked for their opinion. Empire was not a democracy. If you want more evidence, again I would point to Iraq - is the US interested in the opinions of Iraqis? Did Iraqis vote for the US occupation?
  2. I know how inflation is calculated, Paasche, Laspeyres indices etc. CPI is correct by definition (of the basket) but this is extremely misleading to the public. The basket should represent the main expenditures of consumers. A key problem is that its reported as the 'cost of living', but excludes many basic requirements for living such as the cost of shelter.
  3. Many do, actually. The ONS defines economically inactive as - Long term sick/disabled Looking after family/home Student Retired Other http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nscl.asp?id=6574
  4. A bit mercenary but fair enough If things turn out very badly for the US (although I'm not expecting a complete collapse), no doubt you will be laughing all the way to the bank, er, bullion vault! Conspiracy alert!
  5. In my earlier post I speculated that the UK was on its way to 2nd world rather than 3rd world status, so I agree with your view. A technical point, but I'd start around there (imperialist actions). I completely disagree. So the empire was not the result of greed? It was expensive to run but at least it kept rich boys busy? Rubbish. I'm sure the victims of Empire would also disagree - you need to look at it from both sides. The UK gained massively from transfers of wealth and the restructuring of the international economy to suit itself (including deindustrialisation abroad to support the industrial revolution). The powerful manipulate markets to suit themselves. Look at Iraq as a current example - nothing to do with dominating oil supplies is it? The elite, e.g. Haliburton (Cheney) has not benefitted? The US forced the end of the UK empire, when the UK was not in a financial position to resist, mostly due to the costs of successive wars (in addition to imperial overreach, or greed as I would call it). The timing was not a coincidence.
  6. Gold also does not oxidise, is an excellent conductor and therefore has many industrial and commercial uses (ignoring jewellery etc). It is not just an asset. I agree that gold is fine in the short term, but completely disagree with your outlook for gold prices in the medium term. However, to return to the original topic, the inflation prediction is a load of nonsense. Do all threads lead to gold (as outlined by the excellent analysis by Red Kharma)?
  7. I agree with your post but not with some of the others above - I agree there will be stagflation in the short term, which is the traditional path into recession, followed by deflation. Gold is fine in the short term and may also be useful as a currency hedge during that period. Therefore, in line with my views outlined above, I firmly believe that the article's prediction for GBP and USD is complete nonsense.
  8. The UK is already well on the path to 2nd world status and the US will follow in its footsteps. Empire is the key word here. The UK was OK whilst it was stealing the wealth of other nations, under the guise of the British Empire, for 500 years. Now the UK is more self reliant but still has the advantages of centuries of imperial plunder. Hence the UK has already gone from the world's largest economy at its peak to 6th (GDP at PPP). There is much further to go. The US is acting like the UK 200 years ago, but China and India are regaining their traditional role as the main world economic superpowers faster than the US and UK can comprehend. US hegemony won't last long, and will end with a massive shock to the US psyche which will confirm their diminished role in the NEW 'new world order'.
  9. Onlyme, agreed, working is an expensive business! (especially when "real" wages are falling) I speculated that "economically inactive" includes the following - not sure about which benefit recipients are included though.
  10. So you think 25% average (real) inflation over the next 10 years is likely? To me and many others this is nonsense, to us, deflation is a much more likely outcome. Of course others may disagree, hyperinflation here we come IMO gold is definitely not cheap, unless you believe in a "new paradigm". Let me put it another way. Do you believe a recession is coming? Commodity booms don't outlast a recession.
  11. The "rate of inflation" means the average change in prices for a particular basket of items, so they should refer to the index used (CPI, RPI etc). So one particular item can change in price at a different rate than the overall basket.
  12. Please refer to this definition I posted in an earlier discussion on this topic http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry797206
  13. This also on the BBC - more negative sentiment UK house prices 'at risk of fall'
  14. Well good luck with timing it. I'm sure there is some more growth left but IMO we are approaching the tricky bit of the cycle. The easy money has already been made. Now that even the Sunday paper Money supplements are increasingly mentioning gold, I'd be getting worried.
  15. Agreed, gold has had a good run and does have a role for investors (but only if you bought it cheap enough in the first place!). However I would be concerned now that the 20 year gold chart appears to be approaching the wrong end of the chart in Shedfish's sig. Kitco gold chart Shedfish sig chart
  16. Of course, in practice what has happened to gold during every recession since the end of Bretton Woods? They call it a commodity boom for a reason, followed by a bust. Unless its different this time, as is the case with houses. I'm sure we can all think of some 'new paradigm' reasons.
  17. I think we are concentrating too much on the three bull reasons - to put these into perspective, here is the full article. Overall, I'd say that the tone of the article is definitely designed to create doubt amongst the sheeple at this early stage. Sentiment appears to be turning rapidly.
  18. Agreed, this is good news for the bears. I was also expecting two or three votes for a reduction. Now that Idiot Blanchflower has been exposed as the lone voter for a cut, I am now expecting a hold next month. From the minutes -
  19. So this 'expert' is predicting inflation averaging at least 25% per year over the next decade and possibly much more?
  20. MV=PT but are V and T constant (in the short term)? Changes in money supply are a top-down approach, the opposite of the method above. The advantage of the method I posted is that it is completely transparent and doesn't involve any civil servants collecting data.
  21. The two issues are related. If your earnings increase by 3% and CPI increases by 2%, your disposable income should increase by 1%. However, if your actual expenses increase by 7%, your disposable income declines and you are worse off. Agreed, the 'cost of living' should at least try to reflect living costs, with shelter being a basic requirement! Agreed, the above data (obtained online with little effort) shows that even a simple example exposes the CPI and RPI data for their obvious faults and inaccuracies.
  22. Thanks for your comments. I deliberately included include taxes and interest, since I want an inflation measure that reflects the main expenses of UK consumers (CPI does not). As you point out, the ONS has a different issue of not wanting policy to affect the inflation outcome. However I agree with the point about saving - currently the savings ratio is about 3%. However, I totally disagree that the official stats don't have any obvious flaws - this issue has been discussed on many other inflation threads. Also, rather than measuring changes in disposable income, I am interested in changes in expenditures.
  23. Every month on HPC we complain about the inflation stats - can we come up with our own alternative estimate? To start off here are some (very) quick calculations. A quick attempt to measure real inflation - any additional/alternative data, comments or suggestions welcomed. I've concentrated on the main bills etc, over £1,000 each pa. and put everything else into 'Other' expenditure. Assumes married couple with two children and average mortgage Category - Spending - % inflation Food - 40 per week per person (8320pa) - 6% (food RPI is 4%) Mortgage - 7080pa - 15% (a quick online find from Woolwich report May 2007 - a bit out of date!) Gas/Elec - 1000pa est - 5% (http://stats.berr.gov.uk/energystats/qep213.xls) Council tax - 1200pa - 5% Petrol - 1000pa - 13% (previous post on this thread) Other - 10k pa (a quick guess) - assume 2% Weighted average inflation 7% I think we could refine this and come up with our own sensible guess at real inflation - suggestions please.
  24. Edit: moved to its own thread A quick attempt to measure real inflation - any additional/alternative data, comments or suggestions welcomed. I've concentrated on the main bills etc, over £1,000 each pa. Assumes married couple with two children and average mortgage Category - Spending - % inflation Food - 40 per week per person (8320pa) - 6% (food RPI is 4%) Mortgage - 7080pa - 15% (a quick online find from Woolwich report May 2007 - a bit out of date!) Gas/Elec - 1000pa est - 5% (http://stats.berr.gov.uk/energystats/qep213.xls) Council tax - 1200pa - 5% Petrol - 1000pa - 13% (previous post on this thread) Other - 10k pa (a quick guess) - assume 2% Weighted average inflation 7% I think we could refine this and come up with our own sensible guess at real inflation - suggestions please.
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