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Crash Buyer

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Everything posted by Crash Buyer

  1. Interesting how the "embarrasing" category of the DSS has been renamed "Social Protection". Why not rename health and education was well? I'm sure that they could divide the £159bn budget (the largest category by far) into more meaningful sub-sectors, but this would shed some light on to some inconvenient facts.
  2. Link below (using 2005 data) Wikipedia France 44.3% UK 37.2% Germany 34.7% This will soon exceed 40%, no doubt much faster than govt forecasts currently estimate. http://www.grant-thornton.co.uk/press/pres...ts-economy.aspx
  3. Wlad, I would agree with your comments above. I also looked up the Gini co-efficients for the UK and Germany (although some of the data is quite old). This could be regarded as complementary to GDP per capita as it measures relative inequality of incomes, rather than average levels. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...income_equality Gini co-efficient (UN data) UK 36 Germany 28.3 To put this into perspective here is the data for a few other OECD countries Japan 24.9 Canada 32.6 France 32.7 Spain 34.7 Australia 35.2 Italy 36 US 40.8 So the UK is near the bottom of the OECD table!
  4. During the last recession and recovery, many tax raising measures were introduced including those below - VAT increased to 17.5% VAT on fuel introduced Excise duties increased more than inflation (petrol, cigs, alcohol) "Stealth taxes" - Tax allowances frozen, Air passenger tax, Insurance premium tax etc Usually the boom years should have seen a significant reduction in tax, instead Large increases in council tax Excise duties increased more than inflation (petrol, cigs, alcohol) NI increases Pension tax credits abolished More "stealth taxes" The money that could have been used for tax cuts during the boom was spent instead. Effectively the UK has ratcheted up tax levels over the economic cycle. This will become especially apparent in the next recession, when NuLab and probably then the Tories have to address a massive budget deficit (I expect that NuLab will simply leave the mess to the Tories to sort out from 2009 or 2010). What new taxes can we expect? VAT on food, books, other exempt items? Frozen tax allowances? Further NI increases? A myriad of new "stealth taxes"? Even higher petrol taxes and other excise duties? (this would be "green") New "green" taxes?
  5. International comparisons are difficult due to different definitions, measures etc. GDP (PPP) measures current economic output (flows of income/output/expenditure). HDI is a better measure of living standards but still fairly simplistic (a simple composite of other social and economic indicators). German HDI is similar to the UK so it follows that the former West Germany has a higher HDI rating than the UK.
  6. Brown's budget deficit is top of flops in EU-15 rich list
  7. Agreed, PFI is kept suitably opaque to prevent deter analysis of the position. So you don't mind paying even higher taxes in the coming years? On the subject of Maastricht, there is also a 3% limit for deficits - the UK has already breached this repeatedly in recent years. www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/8/B/maastricht300307.pdf At £100bn, the deficit could easily be 7 or 8% GDP
  8. To summarise, you would expect the govt to balance the budget over the economic cycle. The Tories ran a surplus during the 1980s which turned to a deficit during the recession. Currently NuLab is overspending, to the extent that instead of running a surplus in the current "good times", we have a deficit of £38bn. What will happen dusing the bad times? Of course, as you indicate that you are a bull you may not expect bad times ahead for the economy, but this still leaves a massive deficit even under that scenario (govt forecasts of deficits have tended to be too optimistic).
  9. Living standards and GDP per capita are not the same. GDP per capita attempts to measure economic output per person during a specific period - it is not the same as living standards, which are the result of GDP, accumululated infrastructure, life expectancy etc. I think most people would agree that living standards are higher in the former West Germany than the UK. Obviously East Germany is a different issue.
  10. During the past ten years, the "Iron Chancellor" has been busy spending money that the government does not raise in taxes, to the extent that the PSNCR (the renamed PSBR) is forecast at £38bn this year. Historic data from the ONS (£m) RUUI General government Net Cash Requirement 1985 8609 1986 3562 1987 -494 1988 -8774 1989 -6947 1990 -641 1991 7708 1992 29467 1993 45007 1994 40549 1995 37768 1996 25217 1997 13355 1998 -6597 1999 -2017 2000 -38754 2001 -3743 2002 16763 2003 37847 2004 41592 2005 41722 2006 36293 Before the early 1990s recession , the public finances were in surplus and worsened by £54bn from peak to trough of the spending cycle (automatic stabilisers etc). Tax increases and controls on public spending, together with economic growth, had restored the budget to balance by around 1998. Under NuLab IMO the PSBR increase will be worse in real terms, as I expect that NuLab will try to maintain spending at higher levels during a recession than the Tories. The Tories were widely criticised for the forecast £50bn PSBR last time - with borrowing already at £38bn at the top of the cycle, will NuLab or the subsequent Tory govt soon face the £100bn PSBR (with its massive implications for the wider economy)? On the menu - Even higher taxes Public spending cuts Sterling crisis etc
  11. Its worth remembering that although the UK may have recorded relatively good GDP figures over this period, the UK is still a long way behind German living standards, i.e. the years of debt have not closed the gap, and the years of recession won't either.
  12. Read this topic, Ray Boulger is predicting 70,000 reposessions in 2008. Even the housing industry VIs are in reverse gear now. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=59230
  13. Were you looking for GlobalWarmingPanic.com by any chance?
  14. David Coleman's Oxford bio doesn't mention Migrationwatch either. http://www.apsoc.ox.ac.uk/oxpop/researchers.htm http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn41...09/ai_n18718872 Ah, Beveridge. Well, that's OK then. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugenics
  15. Wrong - I stated no cause and effect, simply association. The BBC does not mention this association (due to a lack of research). The UK has a long history of accepting and supporting Islamic extremists when it suits them. The UK provided arms and training to Islamic terrorists during the 1980s Afghan war (along with the US). UK born muslims were trained by the UK army to fight with the terrorist KLA against Yugoslavia. France has long complained that the UK harbours Algerian terrorists. This is the inconvenient truth (for you).
  16. I think we should put this article into context. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn41...09/ai_n18718872 Why doesn't Coleman promote his views through Migrationwatch rather than the university? (the answer is obvious)
  17. Agreed. This article is a pointless extrapolation of current trends, like "house prices to increase another 50% in three years" and other such nonsense.
  18. Good article. "NuLab - NuDanger" as the Tories once said. NuLab uniquely stands against liberty in UK politics - the other parties all have vocal libertarian wings. NuLab is the only major party to support ID cards - with the election due in 2009 a Tory majority should ensure this policy ends up in the bin where it belongs.
  19. Consumer durables are always hit hard in a recession, as are primary commodities. Don't forget that the commodity boom is not just a result of economic demand but also speculation. The commodity boom is cyclical - there is plenty of evidence for that.
  20. Personally I have noted a significant change in sentiment following the credit crisis and N Rock. I was expecting this change to be a slower process. The media are definitely reporting property news more negatively (the BBC used to be among the leaders of property ramping, now its becoming a bear-fest). This is already having an effect on sentiment.
  21. Exactly. These are the three main explanations of inflation and monetarism is just one of them. I had to make the same point on another thread earlier today. Yes, interest rates are a very blunt tool and will help cause a recession, but this is the main policy tool that is used nowadays. Fiscal policy can be used to target various sectors by taxes/subsidies but in the case of oil have only made the problem worse through higher taxes on petrol. Norman Lamont used to be described as a golfer with only one club, as he always used interest rates to control inflation, after the demise of credit controls and prices and incomes policies in the 1970s. Of course, NuLab are pursuing an incomes policy on the public sector as well.
  22. Housing Most household goods, consumer durables, clothing etc Primary commodities markets and dependent items (many items - wheat, petrol etc) Its fairly simple. In a recession, businesses have to increase efficiency to survive (often called x-inefficiency in a boom) to remain profitable and also pass on lower costs to consumers. Companies go bankrupt, people lose their jobs and have less money to spend, the demand for commodities falls.
  23. The M4 figures are interesting and informative, however I think its worth pointing (to those who don't already know) out that there are three major theories of inflation - money supply is not everything. 1. Demand pull 2. Cost push 3. Money supply I would say there are generally more people posting on the 3rd option on this forum, but there are other explanations (e.g. rising oil price fits into the 2nd option).
  24. Agreed, I think it was a good attempt to educate the sheeple. I'm not bothered about flashy editing and lighting, which as others point out is better suited to the frivolous property ramping programmes. I was interesting that the presenter had STRed and had disclosed his interests (unlike the rampers). Also it was filmed recently and did not seem out of date. A brief overview from the BBC. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/7027874.stm
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