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Crash Buyer

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  1. Fiscal cliff seems to be playing havoc with this one this year. Or it was early etc.
  2. Bus companies have to pay for fuel too. In this scenario, public transport commuting fares would also go up from say £4 per day to £40 per day. Most jobs would not be viable for the average Joe and the economy would collapse. I still wouldn't use the bus. I'd be protecting my family and house from the starving chav hordes.
  3. I'd rather (and do) pay much more to drive to work by car than travel by bus. Main reasons are punctuality, time-savings, comfort, it's door to door and I don't have to share my commute with random nutters. I don't think there's any price level where I'd switch to public transport. In fact, bus fares have been rising faster than car running costs since 1997 according to the Department of Transport (i.e. depreciation, fuel, maintenance). There is no rail service anywhere near my house. Also I wouldn't consider cycling, it's far too dangerous and there's the unpredictable British weather.
  4. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-25/how-12th-century-mathematician-just-doomed-bernankes-wealth-effect I thought it was worth revisiting this one (even though it was on ZH). Actual high was 14 Sep (a few days earlier than expected). Assuming the bottom is now in, the next high is due around 45 days from the 16 Nov low (mid-Jan). The main problem is that they cheated on the 2010 correction, using the August higher low rather than the July low. This would put the whole sequence out of whack of course.
  5. Found myself in a similar situation - was looking to buy around 5600, which ended up around Friday's close. Missed that and now Monday +132 points, closed at the 200DMA. Surely now the 200DMA is support, Santa rally etc.
  6. I found it amusing (in an earlier article) when Adam Hamilton called Obama a Marxist. I hope he didn't learn trading at the same place he learned politics!
  7. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2006/mar/22/thejomooreawardforburying OK it's an old one but a good one; I just couldn't resist sticking the boot in to the useless c***. Might cheer you guys up a bit tonight, whilst these idiots are busy f***ing up the economy.
  8. Interesting that if you take out the WWII & Cold War period on the last 2 charts, you could pretty much say nothing's changed. Or to put it another way, normal business has been resumed now that we don't have to worry about the Soviets pushing their pesky communist equality agenda. There's just a bunch of Occupy protesters, rather than 5,000 nuclear warheads on the other side of the argument. IMO without the Cold War, income inequality would have bounced back straight after the war rather than 50 years later.
  9. It's not quite compulsory yet; the govt has changed private sector pensions to auto opt-in instead of auto opt-out, but you can still opt out. They wonder why private sector employees opt out when final salary pensions have virtually disappeared, annuity rates are a joke and all the risk is on the employee. I had a pension review at work with one of these "specialists", so I asked them to show me their historic fund performance. They could only show me the last 5 years and even then they managed to underperform the FTSE excluding dividends. From memory, the TR was under 20%, a truly crap performance. Gives you an idea how bad the fund management and how high the hidden fees are. So I'm investing my own money instead, taking responsibility for my own future rather than relying on a pension fund manager who is busy skimming off my returns.
  10. For the bulls (at least in the short term), see the chart below. Originally posted on Bespoke Invest during the summer but I couldn't find the link to the original article. What's interesting is that the SPX has also followed the average year 4 performance quite closely since this was posted. We've seen the usual summer rally followed by a September high. It suggests that an October correction (as we are experiencing now) is normal and that we should expect a post-election rally. Although the chart below suggests the last 3 of months of an election year are worse on average than during other years. Although probabilities of an increase are good - see table below. Edit: Quite obviously the returns on the 2nd chart don't tally with the 3rd table.
  11. How about a mining stock ETF to avoid stock-picking? Although you'll end up weighted towards the big stocks of course.
  12. Equities: I'm really tempted to go short (back to at least SPX 1420) but that would be going against the trend. Equally longs here just look crazy; no thanks. Do nothing when there's nothing to do, right?
  13. Some good advice. In a previous renting case, the letting agent scum had kept my deposit under the guise of disputing a couple of things (which were not my fault). In this instance, once I raised the threat of dispute, they backed down immediately (I had a strong case). I think the dispute service are used to dealing with cases where deposits are being unreasonably withheld (hence why the TDS was set up in the first place) and would be more likely to look favourably on the tenant. IMO, ignore their court threats, it's just the scum posturing.
  14. Sorry to hear about your LL problems. We were lucky and avoided the wide-boy BTL twats you are talking about. The UK renting system is far too biased towards the owner compared with most countries. I won't miss those ludicrous clauses in rental contracts regarding what you can and can't do etc. However, I've got used to not having to do any DIY and having my weekends free for recreation time, one of the advantages of renting. Now my weekends are being spent decorating!
  15. Back around 2008 this was even more favourable due to rapidly falling nominal house prices and higher savings rates (if you'd fixed before the recession). For me the percentage return is no longer enough to justify renting. As GeordieAndy says, more QE will be used to prop up nominal house prices, so I don't see things improving.
  16. There's always a reason to wait longer! Thanks! Correct, unfortunately. Although some of it was in savings accounts earning almost nothing. Thanks - sounds like you've done very well - may your good luck continue.
  17. I have finally bought a house. Found a relatively good deal (considering the current inflated market) and was prepared to walk away if I couldn't get it at an acceptable price (in fact when the vendors asked me if I could raise my offer, I did - they came back). Been looking for a while and previously been outbid on other houses. To put off buying for longer, I'd need the prospect of drastically lower prices in a relatively short period and I've concluded this is not going to happen. Although I think that real prices will continue to gradually drift down before stabilising. However since joining this site I've realised that not buying a house was a specific speculative bet and that there are many other speculative bets available in the markets. If house prices were to fall sharply, I could short house builders or banks. In short, my entire investment strategy no longer depends on house prices. Of course, this is not suitable for everyone and in any case a functioning society should be able to provide shelter for it's citizens at a reasonable cost. Meanwhile, in between DIY jobs, I'll continue to keep you company in the investment sub-forums.
  18. We can add the Facepalm debacle to the IPO blacklist. Insiders selling at the most opportune time to all-too-willing outsiders.
  19. Nice to see the market show a clear verdict on 200 P/E vapour-stocks. Good luck with that sh*t, Suckerberg! EDIT: Disclosure - I don't have a Facepalm membership, although nearly everyone I meet seems to.
  20. I see the gas price propaganda machine is starting early this year. Usually they wait until July or August, so they can announce price rises just before winter. Then take it in turns to be the first to announce price rises each year. Whose turn this year?
  21. Isn't it just. FWIW I favour a rally further well into the 1400s before we get another correction: - I agree with Tiho (as posted earlier by HAM) that long USD is a crowded trade - IMO the recent "shale oil = strong dollar" story is designed to get this trade even more crowded before it breaks, fuelling risk-on trades - We had the "sell in May" equity trade in 2010 and 2011 - on the surface it is appearing now too, which is a perfect opportunity to burn shorters So I think we'll run up higher. A QE3 rally would help Obama; to get QE3 by autumn would mean equity weakness during the summer, so let's say a June correction would be just perfect. Or we could get a little pre-election panic-inspired banking blackmail like 2008. EDIT: I remembered that Adam Hamilton wrote on this in Feb (this may be a re-post): http://zealllc.com/2012/spx2012.htm Well 2 months later we were only 10-20 pts higher on SPX so it looks like the second scenario is working out.
  22. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index seems about to decline into negative territory. Presumably the NFP data will be enough. Doesn't bode well for equities. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CESIUSD:IND/chart Note of caution - this article notes the poor predictive power of the index (against SPX) before the 2008 crash. http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-05/markets/31292553_1_stock-market-s-p-business-insider
  23. Cheers RK. I rather agree with Scepticus's point on Asian labour costs, than "its different this time". Anecdotally it's said that manufacturers are already looking for cheaper alternatives to China in Asia. I think I'm also repeating myself but FTSE100 is flat despite S&P above 1400. I was thinking the Bernanke comments on QE would be a nice catalyst to pull in the suckers before the inevitable occurs. But the action has been a bit muted since, so I'm struggling to make a foolcast myself.
  24. Whilst on the GMO site I found this article from the same author analysing the "record profits so quickly after a recession" conundrum. In short, the US fiscal deficit has been the main driver of this sharp profit growth, in contrast to historic norms where investment drives profits (as you'd expect). The report concludes that we can expect profits to mean revert based on some level of deficit reduction following the US elections this year. https://www.gmo.com/America/CMSAttachmentDownload.aspx?target=JUBRxi51IIBtbYEu0yy2D233Qql0krF9YIWDpyU9bC1DsIW9OxrQN38JW598obIegPVL5Vm43jTd74zJ0R1rY2lRRYvkFggPe%2bdZF4oUF%2bEun279ii1ThA%3d%3d
  25. I think if you have the trading skills (discipline, money management etc) then there are far easier ways to make money than an IPO with no price history. As you say, it's very difficult - I bet there aren't many Supergroup investors who bought in at 500p and sold at 1800p.
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