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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Realistbear

  1. Looks like Spain after their collapse in property prices. It had to end--easy come and easier going.
  2. That's my point. If all the major currencies go down together a new level is set--China will have to follow suit or risk collapse. Relativity kicks in and status quo is mainatined. They are all in it together and none can break loose and crash without the others. The only things that will ease the tension are the things which they can afford to let crash: metals would be an easy one as a drop of 70% in gold would not cause too much of a ripple. But a 50% drop in the € would be seismic.
  3. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2066088/House-prices-rise-25-000-just-years-homes-shortage-takes-hold.html House prices will increase by 15 per cent over the next five years due to a shortage of available properties, according to economists. The price of the average three-bedroom home will rise by more than £25,000 from £176,184 to £202,068 by 2016. Despite the economic downturn, the upswing will be the result of a persistent shortage of housing and quantitative easing - when the Bank Of England injects cash into the economy making it easier to get a mortgage. Study: House prices will increase by 15 per cent over the next five years due to a shortage of available properties and it becoming easier to get a mortgage House prices will rise gradually, by 1.6 per cent next year, before reaching an annual increase of 4.3 per cent in 2016, according to the Centre For Economic And Business Research (CEBR). Douglas "Doug" McWilliams, chief executive of CEBR, said: 'It Is important to realise that the UK has a housing shortage, which is shown by the recent rises in rents. The governments have been quite adept at keeping the plates spinning and I believe immigration has been their chief weapon in this regard. We saw record numbers coming last year (250k officially) and the numbers far exceed houses being built. Certain ethnic groups are breeding like rabbits so there is "home grown" demand building also. The Banksters have pulled of the biggest heist in history and are keeping IR on savings at record lows as borrowing costs fuel bumper bonuses and other skimming bounty. I bought because rents are at ridiculous levels in my area and I got tired of waiting. I somehow doubt prices will rise 15% unless we get some seriosu inflation and any rises will be wiped out accordingly--in real terms that is.
  4. Yields on two-year bonds jumped above 8 per cent after an auction of this debt and six-month bills raised the full targeted €10bn but at the cost of sharply higher yields. FT today.
  5. This is the new norm. The moral compass has long since dissappeared and we are back in the Dickensian days where most were cutpurses, thieves and blaggards. It began in earnest after Maggie's BIG BANG when regulators were put away and amorality took over. Then the moral compass got lost among those who used to regulate (Parliament) because they want to be as rich as those who are no longer regulated. The whole lot has to come crashing down so we can start again.
  6. Its a BH in the US which may explain why the drops are moderate. At the moment I think many are wonderng when the € is going to go into freefall or whether it is too big to fail and will bring the rest down at the same rate in which case the staus quo remains as it has been for the last few months or years. China wont allow a 20%-50% crash in the $, £ and the € wihtout devaluing the Yuan by like amount. Globalism has put the brake on FOREX to a degree (at least for the majors) but the same may not hold true for commodities of whatever persuasion. The markets can afford a gold crash but not a € collapse.
  7. After QT last night and Sainsburies' Capo saying he gets paid £900k a year (plus another £1.5m or so in bonsues/pensions/cheap sausages not mentioned) it makes you wonder how these troughers can see the poorer classes are guitlty of a sense of entitlement. Little wonder revolutions occur from time to time. 1642/1688 anyone? Haven't heard how much the Banksters are skimming this Crimbo yet? Nearly all the banks are losing billions so perhaps they are keeping their hauls quiet?
  8. FOREX smelling the end too? http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/25/markets-forex-idUKL5E7MP0YJ20111125 FOREX-Euro at 7-week low on lack of crisis plan Fri Nov 25, 2011 10:44am GMT * Euro falls to 7-week low of $1.3249 versus dollar * Markets rattled by lack of cohesion on how to tackle crisis * Italian yields back under pressure, forcing ECB's hand * Sarkozy does a Basil Fawlty in front of Merkel while screaming Sieg Heil By Neal Armstrong LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - The euro fell to seven-week lows against a buoyant dollar on Friday and was set to weaken further as disagreement on how to tackle the debt crisis drove borrowing costs to new euro-era highs and boosted demand for liquid assets.
  9. A wise old man once told my Dad who was a bit of a wanderer after WW2 that your home is where your friends are. Lot of truth in that. Post WW2 we have become a wandering generation(s) with less roots, breakdown in family life, priced out of our towns and villages and overwhelmed with foreign cultures. We are finding it difficult to identify a "home" and feel comfortable in it. At least that is how I feel and I followed in my Dad's footsteps going back and forth between the US and here for a few years. Never felt at home in the US and I struggle here because England is changing so rapidly--and for the worse. Much worse.
  10. € Way-hay it worked on mine! I wonder what other gems lay hidden in my keyboard waiting to be discovered.
  11. QUOTE FROM ARTICLE Annual net migration to the UK in 2010 was 252,000 - the highest calendar year figure on record, figures show. The bottom line is that more people came here last year than any other year on record. I fail to see how you can spin that any other way than to say the levels of immigration were worse in 2010 than any other year we have records of. Its not time to bury our heads in the sand and try to say the gross figures offset the net because the numbers are still at record levels and there is no political will in government to do what is necessary to end it. The EU membership thing is problematic but we can easily end benefits for new arrivals which will turn the tap off slightly. End child benefit to migrant labour--much of it is remitted to EE. The marriages of "convenience" used by Pakistan and other Moslem nations can also be turned off by telling the Human Rights brigade where to go. The Asylum racket can be met with large camps where all asylum seekers can reside until the outcome of their case is known.
  12. The only words that come to my mind are these: It's good here isn't it?
  13. The American plan began in 1776 when they broke from Europe. They created a forward thinking cohesive society consisting of mostly Europeans (Germans being the largest single ethnic group) and have a world view that freedom with liberty and justice for all is a good thing. Globalism made the dream of splendid isolationism impossible (Europe kept coming to America) so to protect the world view America reversed gear and instead of being influenced by Europe it began to influence Europe and the rest of the world. The outcome of both World Wars was influenced by America. Strange that it turned on its largest single ethnic group and fought agaist Germany in both wars. Perhaps because the other ethnic groups together out numbered the Germans. So why the Marshall Plan post WW2? To prevent the spread of the Russian and Chinese Dream of a world under communism? Or to gain territory? But what territory as most of EE is no longer under Soviet or US control? The EU was, if anything, a rival USA but it lacked all of the essential ingredients and had almost no political consensus or common history of nation building. The only way the EU could become the USA was to force integration. Caesar was quite successful. Napoleon and Hitler both failed. I doubt Merkel and Sarkozy will be any more successful than their 19th and 20th century counterparts. If a new Caesar arises integration may be possible but it will take a strong, well discipled army controlled by a strong man. What makes America so successful? It must be the people more than the resources. Isreal has no resources other than its people and yet it is, poltically speaking, a super power because WW3 will be triggered by what goes on there. Perhaps the combination of, let's say for argument's sake, 32% German, 28% Irish, 25% English and a hodge podge of other Europeoples was a good recipe for success?
  14. He was seen in a Kensington High Street pet shop buying a puppy so something is up.
  15. Is the direction of gold being determined by the fate of the Euro and a possible flight to the US $ as the safety play? GOLD 11/25/2011 05:23 1678.70 -16.10
  16. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8913884/Death-of-a-currency-as-eurogeddon-approaches.html .../ This has caused remaining international confidence in the euro to evaporate, and even German bunds to lose their "risk free" status. The crisis is no longer confined to the sinners of the south. Suddenly, no-one wants to hold euro denominated assets of any variety, and that includes what had previously been thought the eurozone safe haven of German bunds. Investors have gone on strike. The Americans are getting their money out as fast as they decently can . British banks have stopped lending to all but their safest eurozone counterparts, and even those have been denied access to dollar funding. The UK hardly has anything to boast of; it's got its own legion of problems, many of them not so dissimilar to those of the eurozone periphery. But almost anything is going to look preferable to a currency which might soon be assigned to the dustbin of history. All of a sudden, the pound is the European default asset of choice.../ Contingency planning is in progress throughout Europe. From the UK Treasury on Whitehall to the architectural monstrosity of the Bundesbank in Frankfurt, everyone is desperately trying to figure out precisely how bad the consequences might be. What they are preparing for is the biggest mass default in history. There's no orderly way of doing this. European finance and trade is too far integrated to allow for an easy unwinding of contracts. It's going to be anarchy. Inevitable IMO. Nationalism, imbalances and Hegel's immutable laws of history. What's it gong to look like? $$$ anybody? I wish I could but I own a house now--in the UK. Oh well, roof over the head counts for summat I suppose.
  17. We often go out to Italian restaurants in the Brighton area--apart from Donatellos who seem to only employ authentic Italians (probably all family members) , the rest are all EE--Polish probably. Going up to Costco in Croydon and you would think you were in the ME or the Indian subcontinent.
  18. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15868793 Net migration to UK in 2010 at record highComments (286) Ministers have pledged to cut annual net migration to tens of thousands by the end of the Parliament. Continue reading the main story EU workers' restrictions extended Immigration petition tops 100,000 Annual net migration to the UK in 2010 was 252,000 - the highest calendar year figure on record, figures show. The data from the Office for National Statistics showed immigration remained steady at 591,000 but there was a drop in the number of people leaving the UK. E-petition stands at 123,873 Sign: http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/19658 UKIP propose closing the borders for 5 years to assess. Join here: http://www.ukip.org/helpukip At some stage the great middle classes will have to take to the streets because the Lib-Lab-Con block never listen.
  19. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204630904577055590007145230.html By EMESE BARTHA, ART PATNAUDE and NICK CAWLEY FRANKFURT—A surprisingly weak auction of German government bonds suggested that investors' worries about the euro zone are spreading to the core of the 17-nation bloc. . The German government sold just €3.644 billion ($4.92 billion) of the €6 billion in 10-year bunds on auction for an average yield of 1.98%. Traders and analysts said the result was the worst in recent memory for a German government-bond sale, and it pushed up yields on government debt across the euro zone. The beginning of the end for the Euro and the EU as a poltical entity--perhaops even as an economic entity as things may turn nasty when its everyone for themselves. Euro holding up well at 1.33 to the $ but how long is it going to last? If the bond markets see Germany as vulnerbale it will collapse very quickly and we will see some very black days ahead. Merry crimbo everybody.
  20. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5hde2ci-gP0qRxvI0uXT9C1dXXh2A?docId=N0016351321978029604A Home-owner levels 'may not recover' (UKPA) – 30 minutes ago The proportion of people owning their own home may never return to levels seen before the financial crisis, but this could create a more stable economy, a Bank of England policymaker says. David "Dave" Miles, external member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, told a property conference in York that fewer people buying homes, with larger average deposits than before the crisis struck, was not necessarily a matter of "regret". The housing market has undergone a "transformation" with the volume of transactions halving since mid 2007, Mr Miles said. Sellers have dropped their prices as buyers needing large deposits have struggled to get on the property ladder and remain trapped in the rental sector, which is seeing a boom. But Mr Miles, a visiting professor at Imperial College London, argued that in the longer term, a lower rate of people owning their own homes and a bigger rental sector may not be a bad outcome. Mr Miles said: "I do not believe that the housing market and the mortgage market will get back to where we were in the years leading up to the crisis. I also do not think we should regret that." The economist argued that in the longer run, it is possible that if fewer people own their own homes and have bigger deposits and less mortgage debt, fluctuations in house prices would have less impact on the stability of the economy. This could make it easier to set monetary policy. His speech, to the Northern Housing Consortium in York, was made the day after the Government outlined plans to underwrite mortgages for first-time buyers as part of efforts to "unstick" the housing market. Ministers hope to ease problems getting on the housing ladder with the new scheme, allowing people to purchase newly built homes with deposits of around 5% rather than the 20% now regularly demanded by commercial lenders. They have denied the move risks stoking another borrowing boom and potentially saddling the taxpayer with multimillion-pound losses. So, the banksters, BTLers and other VIs have pulled it off? Priced out millions and changed the market in their favour. BoEs Dave seems to have capitulated.
  21. I am wondering if gold is going to end up as a dissappointing investment this year for those who bought in over the last 12 months or so with higher expectations. With economies collapsing and demand starting to plummet it is hard to see inflation being a reason to buy gold. It is possible that the market psychology is "well, if it was going to it would have done so by now so maybe not now or for years to come?" That said, we are not seeing any significant sell offs with only minor drops with few triple figure drops. GOLD 11/21/2011 11:40 1686.90 -37.90 -2.20%
  22. Germany are isolated. They have everything to lose and nothing to gain by a Euro collapse. The DM will go ballistic and be the most valuable currency in the world forcing them to follow Japan and offshore everything causing their economy to go into decades of slow decline and stagnation. Merkel and Sarkozy have fallen out so its just a question of time--maybe this side of Crimbo? $ will do well, stocks will not but the DOW will outperform the rest in a bad market, sterling will follow the Euro down to an extent but be a better bet than the Euro and commodities will collapse--include the metally ones. We all need to start thinking about our CRIMBOCASTS for 2012 and compare notes for those that had the guts to do a CRIMBOCAST last Crimbo. Some got it 100% right, others 80% and others even less.
  23. Thanks for all the input. Bottom line: Owt for nowt. Technology is moving rapidly and panels will become better and cheaper in the next few years cancelling any gain to be had now in signing away your roof for 25 years with all the downsides noted. That leaves just one problemo--how to get rid of the seagulls that infest roofs around here. Heard that green laser pens are quite good if you can get the max legal 5Mw versions.
  24. Sssssssssssssssssssssssh! Don't draw attention to it and it will go away. Mum's the word, loose talk costs lives, you know the sort of thing.
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