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Realistbear

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  1. I am wondering if my Crimbocast of 2010 may turn out to be not far off target? About a year ago it was in the $1400 range and 1570's this evening. The Euro has broken down below 1.30 and it seemed highly likely a year ago that the EZ would start to wobble badly by about now. Was a significant downdraft ion gold prioces really inevitable given the plight of the EZ and the liklihood that the $ would be the safe haven? Add to the mix the slow turnaround in inflation which was also inevitable given the onset of recession and collapsing demand for commodities, especially in China. China now has a full on HPC which is a huge factor in metals prices.
  2. Not just the protection rackateers (insurance) but the Power Bandits and Banksters too! They are all at it in this unregulated shark pool and its us who are paying for it.
  3. Only off $50 or so today. It ony gets interesting with the 3 figure drops which may come if the Euro looks like a bust as money then starts to go into US $/bonds. One thing is for certain, no journey to the moon this year.
  4. The bottom feeders push the rest of the market up. No bottom feeders/FTBs and no move-up buyers. Not so sure immigrats are all poor either. E.g. quite a few EE immigrants set up criminal gangs and make a lot of money.
  5. 4 years on and I am still here. My get out if it gets appalling here (UKIP don't get enough seats to force the Lib-Lab-Con block to change their ways) I still have the US option but not feeling it yet. Wouldn't consider OZ (especially now that so many are returning because of the lack of any culture whatsoever--even bad culture, the Hogan factor wore off years ago). TFO for NZ and its too far away frm everyone and everything. I like Portugal A LOT--but itsd a bit foreign and don't know a soul there. The DM have a farticle in today's paper saying Portugal is a great buy at the moment. Fabulous country IMO and the Douro win is excellent.
  6. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/72308428-224c-11e1-acdc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1g2YdjOPt By Norma Stitz , Economics Correspondent Britain's trade deficit fell sharply in October to the lowest level in six months, aided by a surge in exports, particularly to countries outside the eurozone, official data on Friday show. The US are our single largest trading partner so we should do okay with the US + colonies and just let the EU sink in its own effluent.
  7. I am wondering if my CRIMBOCAST 2010 has been realised--at least as far as we are concerned? Collapsed Eurozone? I very much doubt Germany will, in the cold light of day, be willing to prop up the PIIGS (subsidize institutionalised corruption). Angela might be willing to flood the market with bonds (debt) but the people won't have it--they saw it all before.
  8. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100013737/housing-sales-surge-but-house-prices-remain-%E2%80%9825pc-too-expensive%E2%80%99/ ..../ But Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide Building Society, put seasonal good cheer in a sober long term perspective. He said: “House prices have remained surprisingly resilient over the past 12 months but housing still appears relatively expensive on a number of metrics. House prices are currently around five times average incomes, compared to the long-run average which is nearer four.” So house prices remain 25pc higher than their long-term price/earnings average. That looks unsustainable until you consider the imbalance between supply and demand. Fewer than 108,000 new homes were built in England over the last year, while an estimated 240,000 new households were created. ..../ Immigration is still unlimited and listening to a proggy recently where they were interviewing an Asian woman against arranged marriages. We know that net immigration hit a record in 2010 (somewhere around 240k). The Asian woman said that Asian gentlemen living in this country select young ladies from small Pakistani villages to import as brides and that most ended up needing psychological intervention due to depression--not so much because its miserable living here but because they end up maltreated. But the point is: the number of potential immigrants from non-EU countries remains unlimited and surely this must be a factor in keeping house prices inflated beyond economic sense for the ordinary purchaser? Is immigration now the chief culprit?
  9. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100013552/global-house-prices-hit-by-credit-crunch-and-eurozone-crisis-but-the-rich-are-ok/ ..../ At the other end of this year's global index, Ireland showed house prices falling furthest. The average was more than 14pc lower than a year ago, with some properties being offered for auction with asking prices of only £18,000. Russia was second from bottom of the table with prices nearly 11pc lower, following Ukraine (-8pc) and Cyprus (-7pc). The latter Mediterranean island is popular with many British pensioners because of low rates of income tax on retirement income. Britain ranked 30th in the table with an annual decline shown as just 0.5pc, despite this week’s figures from the Land Registry, based on tax paid by homebuyers, that show prices fell by 3.2pc. Britain’s sovereign status outside the eurozone has not protected it from global economic gloom. Ms Everett-Allen said: “With politicians seemingly helpless to get to grips with the eurozone debt crisis, this has reawakened fears of a double dip recession, not just in Europe but around the world. Unsurprisingly, this economic uncertainty has been reflected in the performance of the world’s housing markets.” America ranked 39th in the table with an average decline in American house prices shown at 3.9pc. Obviously, the average price changes conceal wide variations at either extreme. Knight Frank’s research suggests luxury property is holding its value better than more modest homes, as the global rich continue to regard property as a safe haven for capital preservation while the squeezed middle and poorer people bear the brunt of tax hikes and government spending cuts.
  10. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111130-709247.html The German 4.25% January 2013 bund yielded -0.04%, according to data from Tradeweb, 12 basis points lower on the day and down from a peak yield of 1.835% made at the start of May this year. Bid and offer yields on all bonds due in 2012 were also negative. A good deal there then, buy a €100.00 bond now and sell it for €99.96 a year later. Hyper deflationary.
  11. As goes houses so goes the banks. If the goverment had not stepped in in 2008 we would have had our mega crash. This nation stands or falls on houses prices we all know that. Its the reason they allow immigration without restriction--the demand side is all they have and masses of new people help keep the low end propped up which in turn keeps the bigger fish up the food chain alive. Sign here: http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/19658 125,081 already have. Join here: http://www.ukip.org/helpukip I think all will find there more than one policy manifesto appealing.
  12. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8924859/SandP-downgrades-British-and-US-banks.html S&P downgrades British and US banks Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and HSBC were among a slew of global banks that had their credit ratings cut by ratings agency Standard & Poor's late last night. This will no doubt have very little impact on the billions lined up for Crimbo bonuses. Thieving lot of sods.
  13. I would look at the Crimbo casts RB made and stand in awe! Contra bets would not have done well. BTW, we will need a thread to discuss all those Crimbocasts made by others to see who got closest to their guesstimates. For those that didn't made a Crimbocast--its a bit of a glass houses situation.
  14. My pension fund has not done much better. All rigged to pay banksters huge commissions. Some sort of enquiry is going to be let loose as some say commissions are about 50% over the life of an average pension. I have a bit in the US in IRA funds that are like a tax free ISA. Self-managed--these have fared better as the commissions are very low with Fidelity--but still rigged somewhat. I hate to say it but there is perhaps only one decent investment over the long haul and its the one that provides a roof over the head and protection against inflation. Other than that,, ST speculation and a lot of luck. I am disgusted with the LT returns of all my stocks and bonds because the banksters have creamed all the profits. Con of the century--if not longer.
  15. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8920369/Retail-sales-fall-at-fastest-pace-since-March-CBI.html Retail sales fall at fastest pace since March - CBI High street sales have fallen at their fastest rate in almost three years as the household squeeze continued to take its toll on retailers, raising fresh fears about the recovery, according to research by the CBI. When the spending slows jobs are lost and then prices come a tumblin down. Deflation cometh!!!
  16. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain. MODS: might want to hook this thread up with the 50/50 chnace of Euro ending threaD? Looks like they have indeed been busy working ion a plan for the inevuitable. Would the FO do this without a pre-warning from the EU bosses who will announce the end soon? MOnday at 11 am?
  17. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.
  18. http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions Top 4 E Petitions: Convicted London rioters should loose all benefits. View 252,582 09/02/2012 Full disclosure of all government documents relating to 1989 Hillsborough disaster View 141,489 09/08/2012 No to 70 million View 124,350 20/10/2012 CHEAPER PETROL AND DIESEL, BY ROBERT HALFON MP AND FAIRFUEL UK View 123,604 05/08/2012
  19. GOLD 11/25/2011 13:25 1679.60 -15.20 Sell at a profit at today's price and then buy back in after the collapse. The market seem to be accepting that the Euro could be finished by Crimbo and the ensuing turmoil will probably see the $ serve as the safe haven while things settle--which could be a long time. If gold goes the way of the Euro--or the alternative $ bet--the recovery timje might also be a long way off.
  20. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2066196/Eurozone-markets-fall-AGAIN-Italys-borrowing-rates-hit-record-high.html European single currency has a '50-50 chance' of collapsing by Christmas as Italy's borrowing rates soar to record high Hungary credit rating downgraded to 'junk status' By Ian "Ian" Sparks Last updated at 4:55 PM on 25th November 2011 Gloomy prediction: Jacques Attali says the euro has a 'one in two' chance of collapsing in the coming month The single European currency has a '50-50 chance' of collapsing by Christmas, one of France's most senior economists warned today. The extreme peril threatening the euro was highlighted by respected intellectual Jacques Attali, the former president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Jacques seems to be in agreement with my Crimbocast of last year. Hungary gone junk status--are they in the € zone?
  21. http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-24014364-now-even-the-bosses-admit-boardroom-pay-is-too-high.do Influential bosses' club the Institute of Directors today admitted that directors' pay is too high as the debate escalated over excessive remuneration. The IoD warned that "the current pace of executive pay is unsustainable". Business and financial groups have been rushing to make their views known as today was the deadline for submissions to Business Secretary Vince Cable's discussion paper on executive pay. Lets hope the ID tell those gweedy men how vewy cwoss we all are and that they are not to pay themselves millions and millions or we will get cwosser than ever.
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