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Realistbear

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Posts posted by Realistbear

  1. Our membership of the EU did nothing to address our housing shortage.  In fact, it did quite a lot of harm as it opened the doors to as many wanted to come whether to work as car washers or simply take benefits.  Not all were parasites, of course, but enough were to make a difference.  The so-called "freedom of movement" policy of the EU was a cover for exploitation of cheap labour.  The EU encouraged the richer countries robbing poorer ones of vital resource while homelands were left without any skilled workers.  The EU's globalist ethos only saw the cost benefit of cheap labour and had no regard for family life and social disruption.  The EU deserves to die and I hope it does so soon.  

  2. Tories have been full on globalist-liberals for decades, if not centuries with a brief conservative respite under Churchill and Thatcher.  Their de facto open door migration policy is at the heart of their ethos and world view.  Boris is a classic globalist and a liberal Tory more so than May but perhaps slightly less so than Dave.  They are doing nothing to stop the Channel invaders and the ONS data says they are importing as many non-EU as ever, if not more.  The thought of 3M Chinese from Hong Kong must have them throbbing with excitement just as the 1.4M from the Middle East rendered Merkel to a blob of trembling excitement.  They think the extra millions will boost GDP, keep wages suppressed, house prices high and rub conservative noses in diversity with no care for population density, the environment or most of us who keep voting for them.

  3. New build offices are just starting to open up and the sales force has undoubtedly been told to say demand is buoyant with months of pent up demand and a house shortage.  I am looking to sell my joint and buy in Surrey where prices are a bit dear.  I will gladly accept a 50% discount on mine if the builder offers the same on theirs.  Not yet, but when reality dawns that 2008 was just a warm up for what is to come.  The builders do not appear to have blinked quite yet with just a few mentioning stamp duty deals and one wit the offer of a big screen TV (worth £289?) if you pay full asking peoce and can complete in 30 days.  Sad thing is this next crash will take a lot with it making house proces somewhat irrelevant to many.  

  4. I am looking for a property in Somerset having bailed out of East Sussex in March.  I am finding almost 40% of properties on RM marked as "price reduced" and many new builds being offered with stamp duty paid and various "upgrades" added for no extra charge.  Some builders are going further and dropping top line prices despite earlier buyers having paid full whack.  It is hard to say if we are in crash mode and the shortage of supply would tend to say it can't happen unless supply increases.  Maybe the surge in new builds is causing prices to fall?  Or is is a crisis of confidence?  Perhaps a perfect storm is brewing--crisis of confidence, too many new builds no one will buy without huge discounts, threat of higher IR and a tired HPI bull needing a rest.  My gut says prices are down 10% from peak here in the SW.  

  5. May and the rest of the liberal left establishment have an insatiable thirst for mass immigration and you can't encourage 600,000+ a year to come here without mass building on green belt.  If May can make NIMBYISM illegal the builders will have the green light (pun not intended) to concrete over our once green and pleasant land to house the 10's of millions on their way. 

  6. 11 minutes ago, TulipsFromThreadneedle said:

    Are they still higher than last years sold prices.

    I dont think the crash is here yet, just needs something to come along and give it a gentle push to get it going down the hill.

    Agree but what is the trigger?  Inventories at an all time low, credit is cheap, unemployment is low what could possibly go wrong?  Black swans galore so perhaps one of those will emerge--but who wants WW3?  Not me.  

    IMO, we are in a crisis of confidence position in the market.  Values stretched too far and wages are stagnant or in decline in real terms.  No one wants to buy "at the top" so are beginning to wait it out and the longer the wait the more sellers join the "price reduced" trend.  My gut today is a 10% drop before Crimbo.  At least for the SW where I am now.  

     

  7. On 21/05/2017 at 2:58 PM, TulipsFromThreadneedle said:

    So your house made more than the average person takes home after tax every year for 6 year or the profit alone was approx 5 times times salary average salary, good of Gidiot and Dave to balance the economy.

    Tells me you may have got out just in time.

    Hope so--my timing has been good the last 4 or so moves!

  8. I am looking in North Somerset and note around 120 new properties listed on RM in the last 10 days.  Around 25% of which are price reduced.  Either the prices were silly or there is a correction/crash on the way.  25% is high for just a case of overpricing.  

  9. I recently sold in East Sussex having purchased in 2011 after renting for about 8 years (house went from £250k after a refurb to £377k in 6 years).  Moved to Somerset where I am staying with friends while looking for another joint to buy.  Very low inventories locally but a considerable number of "price reduced" which seems to be a contradiction in the way things usually go when supply is short and demand is "apparently" high.  

    Corrections usually occur every 7-10 years and we are now in the 8th or 9th year of the boom if we take 2008-09 as the low point.  Is the market going to correct again regardless of low inventories and if so, why?  Is it just a matter of "confidence" and uncertainty about the future given the Merkelisation of Europe, BREXIT, the liberal left's obsession with unseating the POTUS and the GE which everyone says is a dead cert for TM who will not cut immigration (the source of a great deal of demand pushed HPI).

    Where DO we go from here?  

     

     

  10. Have we ever been here before?  Chronic shortage of properties, not many buyers but a growing population due to irresponsible immigration policy and endless benefits for large families.  I have recently sold up in East Sussex and am staying with friends in North Somerset.  Looking on RM daily and very few properties.  Quiet a few price reduced but good ones go in hours due to lack of competition.  IR seem stuck for at least another year or so and BREXIT works itself out.  Things seem a bit too quiet and stable something must be about to happen.  

  11. I am looking into selling in East Sussex to move to Devon or even Warwickshire (have friends there) and have noted new builds are being offered with stamp duty paid. Not a great deal of inventory to choose from which suggests builders may have slowed down in anticipation of BREXIT which has not resulted in the end of civilisation as we know it. Looks like the EU is suffering badly which may end up sending even more our way to boost demand and keep the ponzi going for awhile. Houses are clearly incredibly overvalued based on earnings but I am not seeing any signs of a crash.

  12. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3096713/Blow-Cameron-Germans-French-plot-boost-EU-power-stealth.html

    • Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande agreed to tighten political union between the Eurozone countries without the need for treaty change
    • The move is a potential blow to PM, who believes treaty change will be needed to enact his key demands
    • Came as PM held talks with EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker at Chequers

    Its been an age since I have been on Hpc.com but thought I would have a look in as I believe we are about to enjoy a hum-dinger of an HPC starting this Autumn.

    In the meantime, I am actively engaged in the Referendum debate and have always held the view that it will take Europe to destory the monster in Brussels. The Eu is not Europe and Europe is not the Eu. The Eu is for the sole benefit of Germany and Eastern Europe and the West are waking up to that fact:

    http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR79_EUROSCEPTICISM_BRIEF_AW.pdf

  13. Time for the RB to look in and see if anyone is suggesting buying on the dips?

    Looks like everyone heard Bernanke say he is withdrawing liquidity rather than what he actually said: withdrawing liquidity IF the economy improves.

    The sell off in bonds will trigger some interesting IR hikes and financial chaos until the dusty settles. Medium to LT stocks may be best.

    Still no triple digit drops yet although today's $83 drop drew close. (Edit $85 drop)

    Crimbocasts for next year might be difficult.

  14. Very. It's shaping up to be Christmas day X 1000 if this continues - like walking into your favourite shop and finding everything half price for no apparent reason!

    It can be disconcerting if you paid more for those items that are now in a fire sale.

    This may be a good time to sell if you bought in at around $1200 as that looks likely soon if momentum keeps up.

    Hard to gauge where the money is going--Bill Gross seems to be in a panic.

  15. Wow! Realistbear's back and with a new set of predictions in the signature!

    How's the new place working out?

    Great to be settled! No regrets and locally prices do seem to be increasing--sheer madness.

    The petition is about to go on the front page of the E-petitions and has been trending as among the fastest growing. Over 25,000 now and a quarter of the way there.

    http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/33327' rel="external nofollow">
    We the undersigned petition for the resignation of David Cameron and George Osbourne.
    Number of signatures:25,957
  16. The alternative is millibad and balls, so I won't be signing for a police state with total euro integration.

    Come on you can't beat brown and his crew for incompetence.

    Dave's mentor and puppet master is Micky Heseltine, Maggie's Brutus and a hard core Europhile. A vote for CON is a vote for LIBLABCON who are one party with no core policies to set one apart from the other--and they are all pro EUSSR.

    UKIP are the only hope. They may take the locals next month and a few MPs may cross the floor at some point out of sheer disgust with Dave, Nick and Ed.

    Todays buried news: £450m for Pakistan to help pay for their rigged election. FFS--what about our cutbacks for the army and NHS?

  17. I wouldn't be rushing to sign that as there's no real policy attached to it.

    For all we know the alternative might be no cuts, more tax, more printing, more throwing money at property.

    I think the Tories have been awful (even before the latest property stuff).

    They've must have had more U-turns that things they've followed through.

    They also seem to be throwing most of the cuts onto local councils as they're too gutless to do it themselves.

    Not really about policy as such--just a petition to get rid of the worst PM we have ever had. And after Brown, that is really saying something.

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