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ockham

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About ockham

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    Medieval theology
  1. Also I note that the Wikipedia Review thread is getting some attention of Wikipedia administrators (the more radical ones contribute there). So it may be OK.
  2. I'll second that. I was a contributor to HPC last year, but stopped after it became obvious the crash was going to happen (I never read the end of stories). I still read HPC every day, and it was I who spotted this thread, and posted about it on Wikipedia Review. I can recommend both WR and MyWikiBiz, and I contribute to both. As an ex-editor at Wikipedia I would have supported the HPC article at the deletion review, unfortunately have had a 'bust up' there, and have withdrawn my account for the time being. Best wishes to all at HPC - I remember Injun, for what it's worth.
  3. Funny you should mention that there is a piece I was just reading here http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/06/16/sub...ref=patrick.net on how the same thing is happening in the US. It's much worse there as they have built more suburban housing, a lot of which is now gangland. 10 families in a house sort of thing. Regards, Ockham
  4. Yes we did (see the date of November 2007 on the post you quoted). I revived it again because, after a few months of calm, we seem to be back where we were. The "3 month" theory seems to have been disproved. I have no explanation for this except that, ever since the crisis began last year, the market has been very bipolar. It gets into a panic, then the central banks intervene with some medicince. Shortly later, the market realises the medicine wasn't good enough, and gets into a panic. Then some more medicine, then further panic, and so on. This can't go on indefinitely of course, because the medicine of rate cuts is finite and limited. So is accepting collateral of progressively worse quality. All bets are off as far as I am concerned. I am close to several people in the markets and frankly no one has the faintest idea. The only difference between now and the last time (December) I posted is that the 'general public' mostly are bears. Not only that, they claim they have always been bears (I told you so). In the absence of any taped conversations or email evidence, I have to take them at their word.
  5. Bumping this as now have nice 3m libor vs sonia pic (see above)
  6. Sorry I haven't posted here for a bit (real life and work gets in the way doesn't it). Thought I would revive this old thread started by my friend across the river, Extradry. The spread between 3m libor and the overnight index is back to its old highs again. Can't load a chart because don't know how to! In layman's terms, there is a difference between what banks will lend to each other overnight, and the 3m rate, now approaching 1% again. A symptom of banks hoarding liquidity and not tying up their money for longer than the very short term. [edit] tried to upload the picture!
  7. Sure, but then it is a bit like a game of chicken. If you have the choice of funding now for 1m, or waiting for a week and trying again, you probably fund now. On Extradry's point, yes, it's a matter of hoarding liquidity for various reasons. On the other hand, some people will have to fund over year end.
  8. If you're suggesting some conspiracy, definitely not. Institutions are simply trying to avoid death before the year is out. Simple as that.
  9. In Q3 it did subside. Here people are just trying to get over year end so it is different. On your question about 1w, it's a year-end thing so people are scrambling around for any money they can find to get over into January. At the same time everyone is trying to hoard liquidity under the mattress, so no one is lending. Difficult.
  10. Extradry has just replied, and I second that. Also, it reflects the fact that a load of banks are borrowing just to get over year end. Once we get to there, everyone will have to roll over at the same time, and then it could keep going on. Plus all banks have to borrow, even the super-solvent ones. Think of your paycheck coming in at the end of the month but you have a large bill to pay 3 days before the money hits the a/c. Just the same with banks.
  11. From my original post. ------------------------------ Perhaps someone who has permission to do this can break this story: very big. The London interbank 1 month rate has soared from 6.09% to 6.72% as we cross over the new year period. That is a huge jump and reflects the fact banks aren't lending. Story on bloomberg plus here http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/...&id=7887211 I posted this quarter of an hour ago but some mod is sitting on it.
  12. Thanks for posting that. I tried to about an hour ago but not accepted. That's an extraordinary jump, it's higher than at the height of the crisis, and of course it makes any change in the official rate meaningless, at least for the moment.
  13. The bloomberg story is here http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...Eo&refer=uk Would be great if someone could post a chart. The rate is now higher than during the worst bits of the Q3 crisis. Amazing.
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