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House Price Crash Forum


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About HedgeFundAnalyst

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    HPC Newbie
  1. Not to sound arrogant, but I beleive it is the U.S. that is keeping this house of cards from crashing globally. The U.S. can create so much liquidity that it is able to sustain world-wide markets through a massive carry-trade. That carry-trade is unwinding - fast - and a few more rate hikes by the US Central Bank should seal the deal for the global housing crash with Britain, the Aussies, and the "Blue States" leading the way down.
  2. Oh yeah, with regard to some of the subtle and not so subtle racism that seems to be pervading the board... The fact of the matter is that the world is globalizing and those who embrace it are the ones will survive. As there is wealth convergence between Asia and the west, I can guarantee you the countries who will be positioned to take advantage of it are the dynamic heterogenous nations such as the USA, UK and Australia. Do not take the path of some of your myopic European neighbors. I don't like blanket statements, but one striking difference between the USA and the UK is the level of i
  3. As an American and New Yorker, I truly sympathize with Londoners. But the truth of the matter is that this suicide attack will hurt London tourism and further depress High Street Sales and the local economy. It wasn't the first suicide bombing that was dicomforting. It was the 2nd attempt that I found really chilling and then the public execution of an innocent "brown" man was what put my wife and I over the top and we changed our Thanksgiving plans. As a person of Asian descent, it is quite simply damn scary to see that. It's straight out of something from Bradbury or Wells. The terr
  4. Thank you for the useful information, Dr. Bubb. It may be different this time in the U.K. due to the extent of the undervaluation in the 1990's. While relative to incomes, house prices seem over-valued in the U.K., relative to other investment options, they may be considered only mildly over-valued. Unlike the Federal Reserve, the BOE didn't cut interest rates as dramatically as compared to their levels in the late 90's. The U.K. has a much more balanced economy in my mind due to the extreme pain experienced in the early 90's caused by compliance with the ERM peg. My opinion is that t
  5. Calm down folks, everything will be fine. Hedge funds come and go but they are a permament fixture in finance, I guarantee that. The best way to invest in hedge funds is through an experienced advisor who can avoid the landmines out there. No doubt about it, this credit cycle will cause casualities. It always does, and I agree that it will be especially pronounced because of how long money has been free in the USA. Luckily my firm avoided synthetic CDO funds as we could not fully understand the risks and ultimately concluded regardless of how it was sliced and diced, it was a leveraged l
  6. Hi. Why would I, with the supposed 70k combined family income, buy a 1 bedroom flat and live with my lovebird wife when others with 70k combined income are living in nice 3 bed/2ba semi-detatched's they bought a few years earlier? Have I missed the boat? Is too late for me forever? Is my only course of action to lower my standard of living even though my peers who are but a few years older didn't have to lower their's? Is it because it is "different" this time? Is it because we are running out of space? Did life provide me with the short-end of the stick? Ah yes, it must be. Just like
  7. It's good that people are trying to think outside the box (even though the analysis is flawed). Stock traders like to use the 50% retracement rule. That is, upward movements in prices are often met with retracements of approximately 50%, give or take. Thus, if prices have risen from say 100 to 250, then expect 1/2 the gain to be given up; that would be 75. So the asset will probably fall to 175, meaning a 30% loss peak to trough. In the case of a 250% gain, expect a 36% loss peak to trough. Not that this is a scientific analysis either, but I find it a good rule of thumb.
  8. I would avoid stocks in general. The U.K. is almost assuredly headed for a recession which means lower earnings. In particular, avoid consumer/retail names. U.K. bonds look good here as interest rates fall.
  9. I for one am totally sick of hearing about how so and so is a bloody genius because he lives in some ghetto and his house has gone up from $100k to $270k in the last 5 years. Such is the extent of the bubble in many parts of the United States, particularly California and New York, where homeowners will spend 50%+ on housing payments and many don't deserve to own a home (based on income and credit history). I was recently in London and couldn't believe the number of for sale signs in the suburbs. To a savvy few it was apparent the bubble was bursting while others were nonchalant and ignorant
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