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House Price Crash Forum

hayder

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Everything posted by hayder

  1. it will have 0 workers. and UBI won't care either way. If the business served a useful purpose, someone else will come along and make a better alternative.
  2. all children all pensioners all the "disabled" adults all the "16hr tax credit" types all the furlough schemers all the ones in ******** jobs which really should be eliminated a vast number of people don't work. this is a positive outcome of being an advanced society that can produce surpluses in necessities with tiny amounts of labour. Let the proles live.
  3. Of course it would be much lower than furlough. This is about helping workers / self employed who are harmed. Its not about corporate support.
  4. what I don't understand is why didnt the government take this as an opportunity to introduce a complete review of the benefit system and move everyone to a UBI. They've had since March to review it and change. 1- people who don't get furlough don't feel left out 2- people on "normal" benefits dont feel left out 3- people who continue working don't feel left out 4- get rid of the entire means testing nonsense and admin 5- get rid of the tax free band for income tax 6- get rid of housing benefit and all the other "stealth" benefits. 7- roll the state pension into UBI
  5. Before covid there was nothing less than 6500/m2 Now offer prices down to 4666/m2 (I'm sure some desperate sellers will accept even less). So the fall is very substantial indeed. I'm seeing some new builds completing now with massively reduced asling prices... down to 5500/m2 . Before locking the new build flats were going for no less than 7500/m2 Houses are not being reduced much though.
  6. in the areas of noth london I'm looking at. flat prices have collapsed. (I am tracking the price / m2) and now seeing places come up for £4666/m2 House prices are kite flying. In June - August pretty much all junk houses sold reasonably well. Now they are just sitting around.
  7. its basically just aldgate high rise flats that went down 34% everywhere else about 10% down. Of course rents are not as massively overpriced vs house prices in London (due to the exceptionally high PE for London real estate). Honestly most of it would be almost 50x P/E by now.
  8. we could have barrows being pushed through the streets to collect the dead and the government would continue to obsessively protect house prices. The current falls in London will simply vitalise the central government to come up with more props.
  9. I suspect the concept of retirement and pensions will itself end.
  10. this is basically a job retention scheme aimed at protecting technicians and engineers working in High Tech companies that have seen orders fall due to COVID. e.g. Rolls Royce and its hundreds of small suppliers, automotive OEMs, Tier-1s and Tier-2s Agritech Companies Pharmaceuticals and their supply chains Those skilled jobs are worth protecting. HR drones, marketing "executives", PR "VPs", "Real Estate Executives", Barristas, pub staff and sandwich makers. not so much. If we want to emulate the German model. We have to make a 180 degree reassessment of what is the productive and worthwhile part of our economy.
  11. economics is modern day astrology. I recommend reading "Debt, the first 5000 years" by the sadly recently deceased David Graeber.
  12. gentlemanly agreement for unpaid overtime? wink and a nod.
  13. its early days yet. truth is there is so much cash sloshing around that nominal falls in equities are limited. this is not 1929.
  14. it would work if it was decently priced. but volvo are trying to price gouge on their shoddy legacy tech cars.
  15. Thatcher bravely bumped up unemployment to 12% without consequences. Bojo and Cummings will do it. Maybe announce an increase in UC, change in max savings for claimants? It'll be good for the pound as we navigate towards No Deal January.
  16. even if the properties halved and every single HTB sold up with a loss it would mean about £8Bn loss for HM Gov. Not nearly big enough to be a moral hazard.
  17. lots of people hanging on for a few months shows that there'll still be a lot of demand come the new year.... adding fuel to the fire. All that will do is reinforce the almost religious belief in house price inflation.
  18. just because something failed in the past... doesn't mean it will always fail. Israel was established in a "white colonial fashion" Liberia was simply setup as a dumping ground. Countries like Namibia or Libya could earn nice money from hosting such a state. Without anyone getting ethnically cleansed. The state would have real economic viability through free trade agreements. There of course is the issue of "warring refugees"... that's something that has to be solved by having pretty draconian laws on hate speech / hate crimes etc, and having initial arrivals in "reception centres" where all these things are taught to them before they are allowed to roam freely in the Refugee State. Imagine if all the money spent on refugees around hte world is channeled to this state and built up into a viable nation? It would solve all the issues and create a truly successful multi ethnic state.
  19. nm also means "nautical miles". 12 of which mark the maritime territorial borders.
  20. so an opportunity for Greek, Italian and Spanish governments to turn a blind eye to migrants being picked up offshore in the med and dropped off 12nm from the UK coast? They could even say "UK is their first port of call" (whilst giggling into the microphone).
  21. there are peaceful, holistic ways to solve international problems. And there are narrow tribalistic approaches which may seem rational in the short term but ultimately futile and counterproductive in the long term. There are a number of interconnected problems with world migration (whether refugees or economic migration). The solution can only be holistic and international. I suggest that a "refugee state" be established under the auspices of the UN. This would be on a large piece of leased land from a country with decent sea access and lots of empty land. E.g. maybe Namibia or Libya? The EU, ASEAN and NAFTA would give the refugee state free trade rights. People from around the world are taken there are given temporary residence for 1 year, renewed. They would live in proper houses, be offered jobs and training and have healthcare and schools so they can live "decent" lives (not Norway decent, but at least a median level). This would be funded from the industries and farms established there for both local demand and export to their EU /ASEAN / NAFTA free trade partners). This way refugees will no longer have to live in camps anywhere. They no longer have to endure smuggling gangs and deadly routes to new lives. The refugee state can be a UN member, be democratic and after 5 years residence the refugees have citizenship of the refugee state and have a passport so they can travel freely and with dignity around the world without moronic knuckle draggers calling them "ferile" and "parasites".
  22. a fluff opinion piece from the FT. Do read the comments https://www.ft.com/content/95e628f4-615c-40f8-9874-17bd9669cd15
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