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IBlewItLastTime

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Everything posted by IBlewItLastTime

  1. Havent posted here for ages, I thought I would read what the wisdom on world financial markets was on HPC, which I have always respected. I though this podcast was cods. "England is a basket case" (UK actually); "whats gonna happen is....". Gloom-mongers and goldbug newsletter sellers. Easily done. Snake Oil. Interesting about Belgian walloons etc - we just never knew. It never turns out as forecasted. It can go a number of ways and I think we may have a further crunch as one or two Euro countries are unable to follow through on the internal devaluations they are having to make. The French people may not like their teutonic looking future. But we just don't know. "Whats gonna happen" my ar$e.
  2. This is a great "I'm really cross argument", but its completely wrong. The reason these ar$eholes get paid so much is either because its contractually agreed (ie quasi salary) or because they've made big profits. The way it works is "either you pay me pots of money, or I'm off", so you pay the obnoxious little prat. Their accountability has never been in your control more than it is now. Your government employs them and you have the power to lobby and vote. Your government also bailed them out and I will stick my head above the parapet and say that, in the interests of moral hazard, we should have let RBS collapse, let several London institutions follow, have a sterling crisis, and rebuild from the bottom up. I take it you agree?
  3. Stop worrying about bankers bonuses. I know its hard, bankers are usually over-inflated jerks. But if you tax their bonuses, they will just pay remuneration in another way. I don't see why they don't just pay higher salaries. And for every higher salary or bonus that gets paid, we get 50% of it back in tax - they can't dodge it except by emigrating Then they invest it and we get another load of tax, perhaps 20-40%, lets say 20% conservatively. On the plus side nearly every business ion London is loosely connected in one way or another with the financial sector. When you think about it, we get 60% of every bonus in tax, yes, we the taxpayers are main beneficiary of banker bonuses. Sobering thought! The only problem is that we have to endure a Porsche swaggering tw*t as the middle-man. Oh well, nothing comes free. And he does do a truly crap job where everyone hates him, he doesn't know what exactly he is working for, he ditches all integrity, he knows the value of nothing, and usually gets out asap only to realise that in the real world he/she is actually useless. Necessary evil in my book.
  4. +1 RB I was surprised to see it on the BBC, but it does look like capitulation.
  5. I find myself flip-flopping on this issue, and I will be very much affected. I hate the way I was actually paid to go to Uni but my kids are going to have to pay. I don't like the way its now a god-given right to go to Uni and to be honest is often an excuse for not getting a proper job. But we are where we are. They are all going to go to Uni and we need to drive up standards - I think actually standards are falling. The political divide is either that the state pays and recoups it in taxation - the model used for state education and the NHS. Or that the state gives the money to the student, who repays it later. Making the money follow the student will cause the biggest shake-up in universities we've ever seen, towards a brutal focus on results and quality teaching. The 'experience' is a goner in this scenario, it was a late 20th century bit of fun. Its either a step back into state control or we go into uncharted waters. Tricky.
  6. Well all that makes sense, but that was GB in pitching mode. Be very afraid!
  7. With Brown, you always have to look for the politics, not the wisdom. What he said was the bleeding obvious ie. its about deficits, bank debts and rigidity. I think he's after a top job, maybe head of IMF. I'll blame you if it happens, RB!
  8. Well I emigrated in 1982 and it was competely hopeless here - I mean no-one could really remember when the country had done anything good. Within 3 years it had all turned. Ever since then I would never write the UK off. It is capable of incredible change.
  9. +1 According to Peston tonight, the IMF is already making it a condition, in Ireland, that subordinated and senior debtholders of the banks take a haircut. So debt restructuring is already happening, to a degree.
  10. This is an age-old, rather pointless debate. The argument runs, I presume, that outside the EU we would only prosper if we had a larger manufacturing sector. Firstly, people will trade with us, or not, whether or not we are in the EU, whether it be services or manufacturing - if we are competitive. The Scandinavian countries dont have a problem trading. Second, there's nothing wrong with a service-based economy, and we couldn't change it if we tried. It is what it is. The sixties and seventies were not glory days of manufacturing prowess, they were declining competiveness that sapped national morale and featured the likes of British Leyland. Our current problems stem from the banking sector investing in property bubbles at home and abroad , this would have happened anyway. I'm not a banker, but I think we should realise that finance is a diverse and complex industry that makes a massive contribution to the UK.
  11. This is the end game for the Euro, the German people are waking up to the fact its daft, and the FIB PIGS don't want to have to take German bail-outs. Everyone knows that separate currencies would be the way out of this, its just a case of how you get to that goal. The Euro offers modest and debateable efficiency benefits, outweighed by catastrophic adjustment effects. All minds should be pondering on just how you get out of the Euro, because when Ireland comes back for more or when Spain hits the fan then it will time to think the unthinkable. If you default, then exit, your remaining debts ballon in domestic currency terms. If you exit, your debt balloons and you can then default. Either way, you spend several years in the financing wilderness. But you are there anyway. In the end there needs to be an international agreement to restructure (ie write down) debt so that the ex-Euro countries can recover. I just wonder whether we should be saving IMF money for the situation post Euro collapse, I am not sure the IMF should support a currency that is failing. They must be wondering this too.
  12. Fiscal union doesn't stand a prayer - Ireland tells you that. Peacemeal ejections from the Euro bankrupt the countries that choose to do so. North/South Euro sounds like putting all the bad eggs in one basket - great unless you are a bad egg. Going on as we are loads further Euro indebtedness on the weaker states, and years down the line, civil instability. Its got to be default.
  13. How can you say that the Pound doesnt work ands our government is anti-democratic - when our govt borrowing rates are the second lowest in Europe and we've just had an election which kicked out the overspenders and has installed a coaltion that works really well? Uh?
  14. The UK is OK because it can simply devalue. But France is a problem. Hence its FIBS PIG
  15. Nigel's manner is grating, to be sure (how about the jibe about Belgium to von Rumpy - ouch). But the basic logic is correct isn't it? The Euro doesn't work when the going gets rough, and the EU are rather anti-democratic and financially incompetent. I think the Germans would find it hard to disagree with what he says - god I hope he doesn't mention the war!
  16. I'm trying, really hard to think about what good can come of this. OK... Repeat of the 1930's - nope, dont want that. Our remaining solvent bank goes under, nope, dont want that. A few folk in retail banking lose jobs, nope, thats pointless. Govt guarantee for depositors gets called and taxes have to go up. IMF runs out of bail-out money. Hmmm. Civil unrest in poorer nations parks mass migration. France gets a bond run - interesting, but not really much fun. Centre-Right govt in France falls to be replaced by left wing - hilarious, poor Frenchies. Someone here will tell us all why its a good idea though...
  17. Interesting. My experience is that agents are always with the herd are 360 degrees wrong. So on that basis there won't be a rash of schemes that get started (because of lack of credit), there won't be an oversupply and anyone with balls who starts a scheme will do well in the long run. You need balls the size of footballs to do this however.
  18. OK, so he should have said most people with mortgages and jobs are better off. So its a mistake. I know what he meant - after all, there are a lot of people with mortgages and jobs. I like Cameron, but will he sack himself when he makes a similarly innaccurate statement over lunch?
  19. The EU is looking into the abyss. If they bail out Ireland, the markets will instantly focus on Spain, knowing that its too big to bail. They are going to have to make a stand in Ireland, with all manner of defaults that avoid an EU bail-out. That cabinet meeting would be interesting.
  20. Blimey the guys having his lunch and dropping a few comments that are factually correct but rather dramatically stated and suddenly its national news. If we this paranoid aboiut the odd comment we will end up with nonentities advising government.
  21. Yep. OK - sorry - got excited for a minute there. One of my mates has a business model which was buy - renovate (and therefore occupy as PPR) - let for a few years whilst you buy another one - sell the first - re-invest - etc. I think he went through a couple of houses like this before the property market stagnated. He's probably cr****ing himself right now.
  22. I've obviously had my head in the clouds, but I was amazed to see that you are CGT free if you have lived there for any length of time in the last 3 years. You just need to spend a weekend in your BTL property every 3 years and you're CGT free. Amazing!
  23. The miners was pretty simple really. In global terms the coal they produced was over-priced. A big factor in this was the geology. Leftists would argue that you should keep the industry going in order to keep people working and provide some energy security and diversity. Unfortunately they were doing a job that had litte economic worth - the times had moved on with giant pits overseas. It happens to all (us) miners in the end, whatever you are mining.
  24. OK Lord Young forgot that everything you say right now is taken down and used against you. But he was broadly correct - mortgage repayments are quite low (hence no HPC - yet), and the civil service job losses and cuts only t ake us back to 2007 levels. So we've lost a good man - but Cameron was right to let him go, because you cannot afford to play down the major shafting may well be coming down the line.
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