gdrifter

I bought in Berlin 3 years ago and just sold at 30% profit. In general Germany did not have a housing bubble and Berlin's market was the most depressed of all in the 10 years pre 2005 (high unemployment, poor economy, low home-ownership), but things have changed. Berlin has become a desirable location, initially for bohemian artist types, now for middle class yuppies. The Germans themselves are very conservative but even they are beginning to wake up to the possibilities of home ownership (some time after the flock of foreign investors that started about 4 years ago). I think Berlin is still undervalued and I plan to buy again, but it helps that I live here and know my areas of town, since the market is very localised.

Yes I see your point. But I tend to think it would be in everyone's interest for credit availability to be less, house prices to be lower and more stable, and for FTBs to save up for longer before getting into the market.

What I find worrying about that article is that it equates decent FTB opportunity with high LTV mortgage availability. Surely high LTV mortgage availability this is one of the main reasons why property is so overvalued in the first place. Which is the real problem for FTBs.

It's in the story about the IFS report "According to the IFS it will take until February 27, 2032, before Britain's debt will again meet Gordon Brown's golden rule, that it is less than 40% of GDP." from http://www.key103.co.uk/Article.asp?id=128...&spid=25211

Do people think then that the Pound will go much lower against the Euro? I bought a flat in Germany with a UK loan (2006) and have been planning to sell and pay the loan off to capitalise on the better exchange rate. But I have been of the opinion that I should do it sooner rather than later in expectation of the Pound actually gaining back against the Euro..

Interesting. i hadn't considered that people can resent you for giving them good advice which they didn't follow. Very true though.

I don't think you have to avoid these topics, just not badger your friends with 'I know better than you and you should take my advice' style comments. In summer 2007 around the time one friend was ignoring my suggestion that it was a crazy time to buy his first house, I also had another conversation on the same topic over dinner with some other friends. One couple among them was thinking of buying. The general consensus was that 'prices always go up'. I suggested they were now going to drop a long way, and was laughed out of the restaurant. The couple didn't buy though. Probably nothing to do with me, but I'm glad I said what I thought.

You may also be wrong, and it can be a bit of a burden to feel responsible for other people's financial decisions if they were the wrong ones. I did tell friends of mine who were first time buyers in 2007 that I thought they were crazy, but it was all a bit more clear cut at the time. Now I'm not so sure - advising someone to sell once halfway down the slope is a bit of a tougher call. I had this recently with family stock investments. In the end you sometimes have to just let people get on with it...

Hello. Could people give me their opinion on where the Pound/Euro exchange rate is going to go during the next few months? I live in Germany and have a Sterling loan that I want to pay off with Euros, but I need to sell my flat first to do it. I feel that the Pound will not go much lower against the Euro and fear it will actually start rising pretty soon, being undervalued. But maybe I know nothing... What do other people think? If the Pound is going to rise again, how long have I got / and how quickly is it expected to rise?

I think there's a decent chance that Europe's problems will become more apparent in the next months (while most of the UK's have already been uncovered). So I think the Euro will fall. There's a lot of talk about Eastern Europe boom-to-bust in the German papers right now.. Lots of bad debts etc.. I have money in pounds that I need to change to Euros and I'm waiting.

Hi I recommend you post on www.toytowngermany.com/forum . I think you'll get more replies on this particular topic.

From what I understand the 1929 crash involved a sharp 50% drop over a month (similar to what we have now seen), but then a further decline over 3 years to a price about 10% of the peak. If we are in a repeat of that, this is not a good time to buy. But in any normal cycle I would say we are close to the bottom. The question is, which is it???

I'd also be interested to know more about these mortgage lenders. I almost got a mortgage with a bank on these kinds of terms a few years back, but found them generally reluctant (and also found the whole process incredibly slow - so much so i lost the property I wanted to buy)... I am self-employed, now been in Germany 3 years, tax resident here. Thanks.

Hi. Where can I see this report? Thanks.

I bought in Berlin about 2 years ago. I spoke to Estate Agents in the autumn and they said that prices hadn't really moved, but were beginning to follow the rental price rise which has been going on for a couple of years now. Scanning the adverts I would definitely say asking prices have risen (maybe about 10% in the last year or two).. But that is just subjective. Cost of buying with Agents fees and taxes is a bit of a pain, so short term turnaround is not going to be that profitable. Having said that I'm now thinking of selling my 1 bed and upgrading while the prices are still incredibly low...

http://business.guardian.co.uk/markets/sto...2170892,00.html

I agree that the German market is a bit hard to read right now. It has had a lot of positive press abroad but the Germans themselves seem less excited. I bought a flat here beginning 2006, also in Kreuzberg, and spoke recently to some estate agents when deciding whether to have a balcony fitted (am also thinking about turning it around in a year or so to buy something bigger). Everyone agrees that rents are going up. But on sales they seem to divide into two groups - one is firmly embedded in a the outlook of the last ten years (prices haven't risen and shouldn't be expected to much), the other seems more optimistic (the demand for purchases has gone up, as have prices somewhat, these ones are also more keyed into the foreign buyers market, which seems lively). I bought my flat at around €1300 per sq m, I noticed the same sellers are advertising a slightly worse flat in the building at the moment for €1500 per sq m, so they must think something has improved.