Marina

Not simple enough for the PropertyGourd apparently. He doesn't seem to understand it at all. Long term property ownership is a low risk, highly leveraged investment. And it is much less risky than other leveraged investments such as options trading. Which, for those of us capable of logical thought, makes one realise why so many people are 'into' an investment which is having disastrous social consequences.

I'd (not unexpectedly) argue with my post making me look foolish. What I think is foolish is someone posting a graph that they have put a ruler on and saying it predicts the future. I must admit I only argue the toss for the lack of something better to do (this site just about beats watching the telly). However, I would hate someone impressionable to come on this site and come away with the mistaken impression that certain people (no names, no packdrill) know what they are talking about. I'm not really bullish about the housing market - I am instintively bearish. But I keep observing things (continued growth of BTL, number of BTL mortgages, local housing market buoyant first half of this year, rising prices (after falling prices during 2004 and most of 2005) that make me question the received wisdom on here that we are about to have a big crash. I'd like one - having STRed - but even though I admit the signs look good for a crash - I think many of the arguments on here are way too simplistic so I like to put the other view.

Is this the under fives section?

You sound like you have bought into the idea the PropertyGourd has been putting around that he cleverly sold up a load of investment property. Be honest, if you were in the position he claims to be in, would you be hanging around on what he must consider a loser's web site? I wouldn't mind betting the only house he has ever owned was a Bako house - and that was probably a hand-me-down.

As a devout lapsed Catholic, I take offence at that remark. I bet you wouldn't dare to take the name of other religion's Gods in vain.

Yes it's nice to be in the hands of a professional landlord. One who wears a suit and knows his place i.e. knows that your place is his place, literally. One who regularly maintains his investment. I assume by professional landlord you lot mean someone who makes money at it? And an amateur is someone that loses? Bluudy amateurs eh! Going to run for the exits apparently when t'shit hits t'fan. Like that Saraya whateverhernameis on the BBC web site whose adventures as an 'amateur' landlord have been the subject of much scoffing and derision on here. Funny thing is - and this will upset the world view of many on here - times are hard for her but she isn't running for the exit. Her baby is 5 days old and she is out looking for a job - rather than selling her BTLs. She and her ilk are going to spoil the plan if they won't sell up.

Look the tosser even put a little scribbled note on it '... prepared for PropertyGuru ...' Yeah, you really fooled EVERYONE with that! Weren't you on about scams the other day? Seems you know all about them. Interesting if you extrapolate that chart to the next 'cycle' as the amplitude of each one is growing at an exponential rate. In the next boom a 3 bed semi will be 4 squillion, falling back to £74.25 in 23 years, 2 months and 4 days later. Even looking at this boom ... most people attribute it to interest rates at 50 year lows. What are you basing the correction on - 50 year interest rate highs? Or is it more scientific than that. Does it involve a piece of squared paper and a straight edge. Your understanding of economics knows no bounds.

Yes, his sense of humour matches his intellect nicely.

They don't like it up them.

You're a sad, lonely, 'no-mates' tosser. Just admit it. Go and join the British Legion or something.

Because ... because you lot have allowed yourselves to be priced out ... none of you can afford to have kids. Someone has to have them so the single mums who are prepared to sacrifice themselves need to be rewarded. That simple.

I didn't say that. I would be grateful if you could point out where I said we can all invest risklessly. You don't have the ability to response to points made, so you just assert that people said things they didn't. You really are a brain-dead pillock. Give it some thought before you exercise your fingers. I wonder why you are wasting your time arguing with a brain-dead pillock who cannot understand simple points and masks his stupidity by mis-representing what other people say. I am not going to waste any more of my time on the w@nker.

You should try putting your bits of text in a different colour so people can differentiate between my text and your ramblings.

What a bizarre reaction! Looks like the truth hurts. You know BTLs are not going to stampede and this woman's actions prove it. Frightening isn't it. They all hold on to their investments for grim death and you stay priced out. I'll buy a house when I am ready. As for my kids ... I am not buying BTLs for them - I don't believe in it.

If we get another rate rise, if we get another one after that ... you'll probably start to get your correction. Who knows? If you do, I hope you feel good standing in the wreckage of our economy wondering how on earth it got so bad. If you haven't lived through a recession before, you haven't lived. You'll be praying for HPI to put the economy back on track before this is over.

Yes indeed. Good question! Kind of backs-up my position that hell will freeze over before the BTL brigade head for the exits. She does not want to realise a loss. She knows if she can hang on she can recover. You're all living in cloud cuckoo land if you think people like her are suddenly going to capitulate and sell her BTLs for any price. She knows, in the long term, property will go up again and she will profit from being a BTL landlord. She gets it. Most of the country get it. You lot don't. You think you are smugly superior - not one of the sheeple. But, in fact, if she sees things through she'll be rolling in it in 20 years and you'll be renting one of her flats.

Yes, but not the sort you are thinking about. I viewed a 3 bed semi near me a few weeks ago for 275k. The agent's picture made it look like it had loads of potential to extend and it was in the best road in a village near me. But the agent had taken the picture cleverly and to extend would have meant a bloody expensive retaining wall and party wall agreement etc. So, not wishing to offend the owner, I went throught the motions of looking around. Wow, I had forgotten how small a typical 1930s semi is. Front room 12' x 11' - not enough room to swing a cat. Same sort of size dining room. 10' x 8' kitchen. I just walked out in a daze really. How the feck can that be worth 275 thousand pounds? But, if you are in the market at the moment selling a 2 bed terrace for 235k I guess it doesn't seem so mad. Being out of the market certainly gives you a different perspective.

I wonder what on earth you are talking about. My point was really 'be careful what you wish for'. By hoping and praying for high interest rates to trigger a crash everyone here seems to assume that they will be interested bystanders - watching contentedly as house prices plummet - deciding when and if to buy a property at a bargain price. The reality, as so well described by Serpico, is very different. You would be very lucky to be immune if a recession comes like the one in the early 90s. Even for people who stay in work - pay rises are out of the question, pay cuts are quite common ('if you don't like it, there are plenty queuing up who do') and the general feeling of job insecurity permeates everything. You daren't take a holiday in case you come back to redundancy. If you haven't lived through this sort of experience you will have no idea how it 'gets you' in ways you can't even imagine. None are immune.

How little you know! TTRTR is alive and well and posting on a web site that has the same name as this one but with the word 'global' before it.

Well for what it is worth (very, very little) I get the sense the market has definitely slowed in the last few weeks. It may just be the end of summer holiday lull but lots of stuff seems to have had For Sale up for a good number of weeks. Up until June the For Sale boards were turning to Sold in a couple of weeks. The downside is that there is now a huge new 'slice of bullishness' to be undone before any falls can happen. I have noticed price increases during the first 6 months of the year and, whenever you get a fast moving bull market, you soon get the nutty prices - people testing the market at an absurdly high price. If the 0.25% rise does have the effect of slowing the market again, you have at least a 6 month wait while all the absurdly priced stuff doesn't sell and eventually gets taken off the market.

You should read Serpico's story and think hard. My very short anecdote is that in 1991/2/3 out of ten houses in the cul-de-sac I lived in - 4 of the men were out of work for the first time in their lives. And this was not some town where all the blokes were out of work because of one factory shutting down. One was a building site manager, one an engineer who had worked for Marconi, another had run his own building business for 25 years which had gone broke and another was an accountant - laid off when his firm when broke. Yet this is what you are all wishing for. Because recession and house price crash go hand in hand. If you ever get your house price crash - you had better hope and pray you keep your job to take advantage of it. I think if we do get another crash/recession like the early 90s - it won't be like the early 90s. It will be much worse. Business is much more competitive and ruthless than it was then and the unions have even less power. We'll end up with half the country out of work and the other half working for the state.

Now think about living your whole life like this. One 6 month assured tenancy after another. Landlords selling up whenever they want and you kicked about like a bit of flotsam with no rights. As long as BTL carries on under current legislation, your generation are going to live out of suitcases.