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nineteentwentynine

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About nineteentwentynine

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    HPC Poster
  1. I am, at the moment, an unapologetic dollar bull. I think this run has a way to go but I would wait for a better opportunity to get in. If you have missed the run down from last week wait a little longer. For me the dollar strengthening is the ultimate HPC play. It is currently the best way to play the "deflation trade" (the opposite of the reflation trade ) In a nutshell it is the dollar v's commodities. Good luck with any speculation.
  2. Let's call this option 3. A deep recession that will become a depression (worldwide). Hopefully it will be over in less than a decade.
  3. No, Gilts and Bonds go up - natural market mechanism. The market prices the rate of borrowing. The BOE responds (lagging) and raises the rates. It pretends it knows something when, in fact, it following the market. as for inflation, The increase in money supply (debt) causes the value of money to decrease and therefore it appears as thought prices are increasing. More money is made which means that the money in existance loses its value. This is INFLATION. Add too much debt to the mix (NOW) and you get funny results. That's not to say that the market is ALWAYS rational. At time like thi
  4. As I predicted earlier in the year (when it was out of fashion ) the USD is about to mount a sizeable rally against MOST currencies. Looking for any particular reasons is too difficult!!! It could go some way still. This is consistant with a HPC The deficit and current account (CA) are not that important when it comes to currencies. Australia has an enormous CA (7% of GDP) which is greater than even the US. By this measure the AUD would have to be collapsing in value relative to even the USD. Please ignore these measures in the short term as this has been going on for a very long time. I agr
  5. Generally speaking the amount of savings that a country has determines the interest rate. If you have a large pool of savings then the interest rate should be lower (Continental europe, Japan). The US has the "global currentcy". The willingness of the rest of the world to finance them makes there interest rates low DESPITE their lack of domestic savings. The savings from the rest of the world are being used to hold down their rates. Does this make any sense? 1. Hard to say. In the long run they should go down if more people start saving BUT in the short term they could go up if people rush
  6. Excellent, the dominos are all falling into place... This should get real bumpy real soon. China bubble to pop soon Bond yields are now starting to perk up again. Looks like more interest rate increases to look forward to real soon
  7. Very little, New York has skyrocketed after the attacks. There must be something else which explains market behaviour
  8. Agreed! Try 90% even in some areas. The direction is certain and the timing is in question. I think we will have to see how it pans out. My feeling is that it many be quick (6 years) but this would mean a global crash. Some countries have been crashing slowly for years (Germany, Japan). When the Anglo countries start crashing I think it will drag everything down at a quickened pace. Low unemployment is a result of the massive debt bubble, many jobs in retail and the like. They can quickly disapear. A snowball on a global scale is how I would describe it. To be sure it will also have an en
  9. Essentially the UK is a financial economy based on the record movement of bonds from 1980 to 2005 (disinflation). It's about to "normalise" soon...
  10. I think we have to be very careful about what we mean by crash. They can crash very quickly and remain that way for many years. My take is that it wont be a case of things improving quickly like the stock market after the 87 crash. Crash and Long and drawn out.
  11. I would agree with you if the UK were the only market in question. The global nature of the problem lends itself to a synchronised fall. As an example of an asynchronous fall look at the asian economies (Japan, HK) and the way they avoided the initial downward spiral in the early nineties. No such luck now! Every market on earth is overheated and primed for downward movement.
  12. Amen, let nature run her course! It will happen give it time. Japan and Germany gone into recession, only US, UK and China to follow to make the "big 5".
  13. Dollar Recovery Begining... Hate to be a contrarian but I think the dollar is about to stage a modest recovery. Undoubtedly it is doomed long term. In the short run in may suprise some people. A rising USD means falling commodities... Why is it so? Nothing falls in a straight line...
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