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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Moo

  1. Why am I having visions of GB topping the "seasonally adjusted" medal tables?
  2. Surely all we can actually deduce from this is that he hasn't called an election yet today. Must admit, if I were Drongo, I'd be going to the country as soon as I could. As things stand, he'll absolutely pulp Cameron, and the LibDems are pretty much nowhere. If he can get back in before the end of the year, then he's got the maximum time to sort out the results of the current financial market "fun". My guess is he'll wait and see how the markets play in September, and if they're not looking too unhealthy (or, more to the point, if the bulk of the electorate haven't noticed what's up) by the time of the conference (23rd Sept), he'll use that as the launchpad.
  3. IMHO, house prices won't "magically" come down, but I find it beyond the bounds of possibility to believe that either "nothing will ever go wrong again, global economic shocks are a thing of the past, and the roses will bloom forever", or that when something truely major happens* the exceptionally inflated UK housing market will be able to ride it out untouched. Boom and bust is with us to stay, and to pretend otherwise is nothing but the purest folly. * Despite all the wild predictions, the current credit situation may well not be it. For what it's worth, my money's on something with the words "oil" and "Iran" in the title, and like the vaste majority of posters on here, I'll be wrong. But it'll be something...
  4. Yes, I fully accept that CPI tracks a relatively narrow area of inflation as a whole, but I also find it remarkably difficult to believe that sustained and significant countrywide wage inflation can be pulled off without shifting CPI upwards or, more to the point, the rate committee getting worried about the prospect of rising CPI in the longer term.
  5. To the OP... Would it be fair to say that your predicted scenario relies on the abandonment of the BoE's current inflation target? It seems to me that the inflationary route out of the current situation has been effectively barred by the hardwiring of interest rates to inflation (and preceived inflationary pressures) when the BoE was made independentish. Unless Gordon's planning to chuck most of that away and tell Merv to "give it some gas matey!", interest rate rises will have killed off the housing market (along with the rest of the economy) long before the required inflation takes hold.
  6. Very, very true. The pressure has either been relieved by general recession, or a bout of serious inflation. Whilst I can't stand the phrase "it's different this time"... it's different this time, in that there is almost direct, almost apolitical link between inflation and interest rates, so it's difficult to see how the possibility of inflation going for even a light jog will be allowed without Mr. King pushing interest rates up.
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