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Methinkshe

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Everything posted by Methinkshe

  1. Anything prefixed by "global" is the new sheep-pen that the herd are rapidly being ushered towards. "New World Order" is the padlock.
  2. You're a better man than I am Gunga Din .............. How could you bear to watch it?
  3. Sorry - difficult to know how seriously to take these kind of comments - some are harmless fun and yet there are those that are malicious. I'm sure yours was in the first category and I was being over-sensitive. Regards.
  4. Selective quoting, eh? You're not a member of New Labour by any chance? Actually, I really appreciate ALL posters because the wider the views the better one is able to gauge sentiment. And it is sentiment that rules markets for the greater part, not fundamentals, however irrational that may be. Bring on the bulls, the bears and the Apocalypse Now brigade!
  5. Hate to even touch on conspiracy theory but I do wonder whether the Bilderbergers could engineer a global inflation so that the benefits that arise from competitive devaluation are negated. I kind of expect to see the dollar, euro and sterling, go down hand in hand.
  6. But in the initial instance, the info that will eventually cause the herd to panic trickles down very slowly and mostly anecdotally - a bit here and a bit there. For instance, a friend of a friend reporting that they have not been able to sell after 8 months on the market - that kind of thing. It is only when the media get a hold of the sentiment that the whole herd turns. It's still the leaders who are making the running at the moment, but not for much longer.
  7. Have a good trip! I've enjoyed many of your contributions - hope you will continue to post, even if a little less frequently, while you are enjoying your hols.
  8. I always visualise it as a stampede of, say, wildebeest - the herd rushes in one direction and then a couple of the leaders get wind of trouble and peel away and do a volte face and head back the way they came; to begin with the herd continues its headlong rush, but pretty soon the leaders are followed by more and more of the herd until in a very short time the whole herd has changed direction 180 degrees.
  9. Typical New Labour. I'm convinced that they really believe that if they say something often enough it will miraculously be so. They're brilliant at talking about policies but when it comes to implementation they haven't a clue.
  10. Which, of course, is what Gordon needs to keep his "miracle" economy afloat. Debt is going to have to be repriced, though. Thing is, can those CDO's be unwrapped and re-jigged surreptitiously and slowly enough not to cause another panic and yet fast enough to unfreeze interbank lending?
  11. Vulture funds must be backed, no matter how putrid Here's a flavour of the article but it's worth reading the whole. "Now the central bankers are finally aligned in their determination to pump the world full of money, we can be relatively confident they will keep going until some semblance of normality returns. The longer-term risks are bigger than ever: inflation; moral hazard, diminished credibility and so on. But in the short term, it seems likely that bigger commercial banks will at least begin lending to each other again – even if they're still not sure about anyone else. Of course this doesn't mean everything returns to the crazy days of before – far from it. Highly leveraged takeovers, self-certified mortgages and opaque credit derivatives have probably vanished from the scene for a long time. But it does mean that debt will start being priced again, rather than simply ignored. We are already beginning to see deals flow back slowly: the offer for J Sainsbury is one big example, but similar confidence is creeping back that companies like Emap and Saga will be able to attract debt-funding. So far, so good. The bigger worry is what happens when opportunistic investors come across assets that are still priced for the deep freeze. Revelations that a group of hedge funds are planning to swoop on Northern Rock, for example, could easily inflame critics who are already annoyed that short-sellers made so much money betting the shares would fall. Different hedge funds are involved, but the sight of hundreds of millions of pounds worth of profit being made at the (apparent) expense of pension funds, customers, employees and taxpayers could be a hard sell at Labour party conference this week. Nevertheless, it is vital that we do everything possible to encourage such opportunism. The trick is to make sure more than one brave consortium decides to have a go. So long as there is competitive pricing pressure, the rewards are likely to remain roughly commensurate with the risks. This process of restoring balance to financial markets is as natural as ice thawing. Most importantly, it is in nobody's interest to let Northern Rock fester for too long. The longer this semi-nationalised corpse hangs around, the greater the risk that the stink of failure spreads throughout the system."
  12. They also love their Parliamentary expenses. When government ministers are using expenses to pay mortgage interest (see this thread) they are not going to throw an election. They'll do anything, including bankrupting the country, to stay in power.
  13. Couldn't agree more. How many months are we lagging the U.S.? 12? 18?
  14. The blog you linked is seriously informative, OnlyMe. Thanks. I'm reading all past months, too.
  15. Impressive and prescient first post, Freetrader, and very informative, as is your follow-up. Thanks. Re inflation or deflation, thought you might find this excerpt from The Great Reckoning, published in 1992 interesting. It seems to me that this is where we are heading. "Structural defecits are unsustainable in a low nominal growth environment once markets realise that rapid recovery is unlikely. The promise of governments to bail out insolvent banking systems and finance unemployment benefits ultimately must be paid either from budget surpluses or by depreciation of the currency. With budgets chronically in defecit in most countries, the expectation of currency depreciation can lead rapidly to a crisis. Funds flow out of the currencies of the countries whose credit is in doubt, resulting in the highly contractionary phenomenon of interest rates rising as economies weaken. The effect is to take away much of the freedom that governments seem to have to finance their deficits through inflation. Governments facing the need to finance massive structural deficits due to the slowdown in economic activity may find that markets can set the price of funding high enough to offset any stimulative gains from inflation. If so, there will be no alternative to direct debt liquidation, and the second, deeper stage of depression." Edit: typo
  16. The commandments that you have dismissed which, in essence, pay heed to a higher authority, are the most important. Otherwise we have an every man for himself society. My morals are as good as yours. What I want is as good as what you want. There are no absolutes only personal opinions and preferences. That's what has got us into the present muddle. If every man does what is right in his own eyes, the eventual outcome has to be anarchy which = loss of civilisation. Help yourself if that's what you prefer.
  17. If you would just read the Ten Commandments (on which, btw, English common law is based, like it or not) you would recognise the exquisite beauty and comprehensiveness of a law that required minimal oversight and maximum personal responsibility, thus allowing maximum personal freedom.
  18. There are a few still alive in this country who actually believe that National Health INSURANCE is what it says on the tin, not just another tax. How do we explain it to them - and they are of the age who fought in WW2 and truly believed that the NH was an insurance based scheme, not a tax, and that if they paid their premiums, they could rightfully make a claim in times of need. Different comprehension as far as I can tell. These days, NHI contributions are just an additional income tax.
  19. Even in the Bible the concept of boom and bust was known. It was revealed to Joseph in a dream that seven good years would be followed by seven bad years and that therefore he should store up the fat from the good years so as to tide over the bad years. Boom and bust is a natural cycle and anyone who thinks they have cracked it - eg Gordon Brown - has been trying to convince you that there is only ever spring and he has, by diktak, cancelled autumn and thus winter, and henceforth no-one will die.
  20. central banks were powerless To my mind, this is the key phrase. Gordon has been trying to convince us that there is no more boom and bust because of his personal input. Fact is, he can no more control boom and bust than Canute could control the tides. If anyone out there still believes that intervention can change the natural cycles of boom and bust then they're even further away from reality than Greenspan admits: central banks were powerless . Gordon and New Labour are on the ultimate power trip - "All power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely."
  21. Perhaps you could concoct a politely worded email to Merv? "Are you holding mushy peas or fillet steak in your shit-bag?" Mind you, he wouldn't be able to answer because anything he knows is "market sensitive" and thus off bounds to the likes of you and me.
  22. Yeah, right, and that's the great unknown. What's in the bag? Until all banks, pension funds and other buyers of derivatives come clean and get this shit onto their balance sheets, no-one knows whether the bags are full of re-hashed fillet steak or re-hashed mushy peas.
  23. Would you be kind enough to phrase that more simply? I find it difficult to keep up with such complicated evaluations of markets. I understand flat - it's one of those BTL things I have in my portfolio, but I am having difficulty with the up and down bit.....
  24. Shoot! Anyone want to buy a 3.3 Grand Voyager? Top of the range - heated front seats to warm scumbums..... electrical boot opening......err....smokey windows so back-seat passengers remain anonymous....think Merv might be interested? Edited to qualify "passengers".
  25. Long may I continue to entertain you all! Although, I have to admit that I do need to curb my tendency to leap before I look. It's just that my computer is so damn slow - it's measured in troglobytes, not megabites - like 1 nanobite/min - so clicking on a link takes me out of the loop for hours (slight exaggeration, but you know what I mean!) Lesson learnt. Best regards.
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