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Methinkshe

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Everything posted by Methinkshe

  1. You said: "As another "oldie" I think you're wrong here; we don't have to adapt because we're fairly near to retirement (in my case certainly)." Your latest post, quoted above, does not satisfactorily explain why I was wrong in my initial response. It's a woolly bed-socks answer that may be your lot, but not one to which I have yet succumbed.
  2. Know what, I don't think they've even been thinking that for the last 5 years. I think people have become so convinced of HPI that it's almost a done deal to extract equity and allow HPI to make up the deficiency.
  3. I'm in my mid-fifties, so maybe my situation is slightly different from yours. Also, my youngest child is still only 12 yrs of age, so I am still very much in contact with the up and coming generation. I have been FORCED to adapt in so many ways that may not have been the case had I not still got young children. In any event, I'm not sure how to reconcile your statement "we don't have to adapt because we're fairly near to retirement" with current reality. Why, because you/we are fairly near to retirement, are we absolved from a need to adapt?
  4. Judging by your well articulated response, you are not a product of the latest generation, very few of whom could ever put together such a reasoned reply. My guess is that you are probably about 30 yrs of age and were one of the last to benefit from a state education that hadn't gone down the plughole, yet one of the first to let rip on the new paradigm of full employment, job for life, easy come, easy go, etc etc....
  5. Yeah! The bugger was, we lost the case at the Appeal Court. Still, we have the dubious distinction of having made case law - all to do with shorthold tenancies. I am not a landlord's favourite person after that little episode! But it was quite an experience going to the Court of Appeal in London - even if we did lose the case! Lost at Magistrates, won at County Court, lost at Appeal court. Interesting little exercise.....
  6. I'm not very good at keeping the names and addresses of all the articles I read, but yes, there has been talk about suspending capital adequacy requirements. However, one wonders how much governments are being leant on by big banks. The more I read, the more I begin to realise that governments are controlled by bankers and not vice versa, which is what we muppets are meant to believe.
  7. Interesting question. I reckon a small independent company could produce such a programme in under a month. I once got involved in a small scale documentary that was commissioned for English Language teaching concerning the incorrect use of the apostrophe. Long story but someone had picked up on a court case I was involved in that in part rested on the incorrect use of an apostrophe and telephoned me to see whether I would be interested in appearing on this programme. I agreed, spent one day in London filming and the whole episode was completed within a day and edited within a week.
  8. Speaking as one of the older generation, I rather think that it will be the youngsters who will find it difficult to accept the "new reality" as you put it, and that the old 'uns like me will simply relate it back to post-war doldrums and rationing which even if we didn't experience firsthand, our parents certainly did. For instance, my mother used to tell me how when she was a child in the war, they gathered stinging nettles to eat, dug up the garden and planted vegetables, and learnt how to obey their mother without question because when the doodlebugs were flying over Britiain, as a 10 year old on a walk you had to respond instantly when your mother told you to dive for the ditches. My father, who was born in 1910 used to tell me about how his parents lost everything in the 1929 depression - they owned a timber business in Kingston which went bust. My grandfather was reduced from being Mayor of Godalming and very wealthy to living in a rented flat over a bank, until my father managed to buy his parents a house after 20 years hard work and saving. No, I think we oldies will adapt much better than this generation that has never understood deprivation or hardship except third or fourth hand. Edited for typo
  9. It occurs to me that if recent monetary policy has been based on allowing a little bit of inflation offset by constant growth, when growth stops as it inevitably must without access to new funds, the "little bit of inflation" that heretofore has been considered acceptable, will all of a sudden become very obvious and very damaging.
  10. Except that there's been talk of suspending Basel 2 and capital adequacy requirements. That's the problem with any enterprise dictated by government; it's impossible to forecast anything when those that have the power to do so, can move the goalposts to suit their own ends at any time they choose.
  11. Posted my query same time as you posted this reply which sort of answers my question - thanks.
  12. I'm with you......seems unlikely that all those worthless derivatives have been taken back onto balance sheets and everything is now hunky dorey......unless, unless.... could they have been taken back at face value instead of market value (on the basis that there is no current market for them) although everyone knows that if there were, the value would be near as dammit zilch? I'm not understanding this.....perhaps someone with a better brain than mine could explain .....
  13. I'm sure he has - one of his fellow columnists on the Telegraph has frequently written how he has managed to afford to pay school fees for his 4 kids through equity withdrawal. Perhaps he hasn't realised how widespread the phenomenon became, though. Also, does anyone know where second charges on property show up in statistics? Plenty of people have secured second, third and fourth loans against property.
  14. But if it is just another speculative bubble, what about the risk of the bubble bursting? And sooner rather than later? Supposing this commodity bubble represents the dying gasps of the credit-fuelled boom and as such will crash as spectacularly as we expect property to crash? This is where I find myself torn - I believe that gold is caught up in a speculative commodity bubble, but I also believe that there is an underlying flight to safety that is unerpinning its value - but at what price? How much of today's price is speculative froth and likely to be blown away when the bubble bursts?
  15. Lowering base rates will do f**k all because the banks are screwed and cannot afford to pass it on. They HAVE to hoard cash to keep within the capital requirements of Basel 2 (never mind Basle 1). LIBOR is the only rate worth watching for the next few months (or could that be years?). Base rates set by CBs are no more than wishful thinking, the condom after the act. Edited for typo.
  16. Thanks, but I think I'll stick with my rented detached property with 5-beds, 2 very large recep, 3 bathrooms, fitted kitchen with oil-fired range, large laundry room and pantry, plus 2 workshops, woodshed, parking space for 12 or more cars, private drive, and all for £650 pcm. The only downside is that when the cows come in to the adjacent barn for winter, they will moo just outside my bedroom window until they have adjusted! Oh, yes, one other downside - low ceilings and doorways mixed with 6' plus kids tends to equal permanent headaches!
  17. I don't think that the obvious sub-prime loans are the problem for banks - they have always catered for a percentage of defaults. Their real problem is that their supposedly AAA investments/assets - those things that assure the likes of you and me that our money is safe - turn out to be nothing more than spliced and diced sub-prime mortgage crap, wrapped and re-wrapped until it emerges as AAA. Now that there is doubt as to the value of this "best thing since sliced bread" crap, no-one will accept these so-called assets as anything more than they ever were - a load of toxic waste. This is why the banks have a solvency problem - their so-called assets turn out to be as good as worthless.
  18. My personal opinion is that there is a certain amount of speculation that is causing the gold price to rise - short-term speculators in for a fast buck on a rising market, in other words. These represent the herd. However, underlying that short-term speculation, I believe that there is a growing underswell of "gold is money, gold is a safe haven" sentiment. They appear to be with the herd at the moment, but actually, they acted before herd opinion had any effect on the gold market and will still be in there when the short-termists have taken their profits (or losses) and run. Difficult to tell when the latter takes over from the former, but I think that they soon will. When it once again penetrates the global psyche that gold is money, the price of gold will go through the roof. I think that the concept is just about impinging on the fringes of the more financially aware and that therefore gold prices are still low relative to what they could be if the global population catches on. However, don't take too much notice of my opinions - economics and finance has only ever been a hobby, albeit a longstanding one - I have no other credentials than personal interest. Edit for typo.
  19. I find it fascinating to read the type of comments that speak of "self-fulfilling prophecies" or "the media are talking us into a HPC/recession." My personal belief is that the media are always BEHIND widespread sentiment, but are very good at attaching themselves to a rolling snowball and adding to mass and velocity. In other words, the media cannot turn the tide but it sure can whip up a storm surge on an already advancing tide. I think we're going to hear a lot of "blame the media" type comments coming from our politicians, even to the extent that freedom of the press could be challenged under a D-notice (at least, that's what they used to be called.) Watch out for government-in-a-corner protesting that any crisis is media invented and media driven and justifying censure on the basis that the media are causing panic which is detrimental to the economic well-being of the country. Those who appreciate freedom, and recognise when it is under attack, need to be very watchful in these coming months. Edited for clarity
  20. Although I share a certain contempt for the get-rich-quick type of BTLer who jumped on the easy-money bandwagon, I retain huge sympathy for those who, seeing how Gordon decimated pensions and hearing about the poor sods who had relied on Equitable Life to fund their retirement, took it into their own hands to invest in property - many from a position of cash and not debt. I just hope that they invested wisely - one or two properties with lots of equity - and didn't go for leverage and spread their cash so thinly that they'll be wiped out by a 10% downturn. Not all BTLers are greedy sods....spare a thought for the genuine self-helper, squeezed into a corner by Gordon's corrupt, retrospective pension raid.
  21. Cunobelinus, I understand where you are coming from, and your caution, but I think it would do you no harm to reconsider. I work on the basis that markets are primarily driven by sentiment. Yes, fundamentals matter but they won't give you the timing. I wrongly called a financial meltdown in 1992 because although the fundamentals were in place - excessive debt, easy money etc - general sentiment was still undecided to the extent that more easy money convinced the herd that the good times were still rolling. I now trust more to my instinct and observation of people's behaviour - what is being said and done on the global high street, and therefore wait until widespread sentiment begins to catch up with fundamentals, because it is only then that markets react in anything other than a minor way. It is still not too late to get into gold, but now that "gold is money" is TV news, it soon could be - except at a very high price; although even that could be worth paying.....
  22. That's what I've been waiting for - the time when it appears to have percolated through the global consciousness that "gold is money." I've always been a little wary of according the just-out-of-short-trousers City spivs with too much intelligence and therefore it has always seemed to me that it would take the bleedin' obvious to smack them on the nose before they woke up and smelled the coffee. If "gold is money" is being disseminated on TV then I think that time has now come. My problem is that I am not currently in a position to take advantage of my sentiment and won't be for at least another year......still, that's life, I guess.
  23. Lol! Very apt, but not the one I was looking for. It's something along the lines of "omnipotent director fallacy" but not quite so grand!
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