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House Price Crash Forum

Bear not sheep

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About Bear not sheep

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  1. Houses last a pretty long time, so they are not a commodity that needs a constant supply. I know a few people with second homes. There are plenty of empty BTL & BTS properties and still plenty of empty properties that are too expensive to buy and do up.
  2. I have a mortgage with C&G. The other week they sent a circular with an invite to remortgage with a £100 discount on the fees if I borrow at least another 5K. I obviously ignored the damn thing. And then some bloke from C&G rings to give me a little nudge in the more debt direction, re the above circular. I felt oblidged to comment on Northen Rock's little problem and the folly of giving cash away to an indebted society, but the guy was unpreturbed. He wasn't one of those stupid telesales idiots who has just learned to read, he actually had some financial knowledge, which makes it mor
  3. We have created a situation where we have a FTB generation in flats wanting and unable to buy family homes, which is why family homes will be at a premium for sometime, but FTB's are the lifeblood of the housing market and when they go, there will be no money entering the system to shore it up. Wokingham is overpriced because no one wants to live in Bracknell. And it has a higher proportion of larger homes compared to the region. Nice resturants though.
  4. This is the crux of the matter. Credit is not money that we owe, but a debt paid ultimately with our labours, at the moment we owe years of work if not decades into a global system. Some of that debt will end up being defaulted, which is no great shame, but some of it will be paid with our pensions and years of low income and high inflation. The bears amoung us do not want to spoil the party, but want it to end long enough for a quick tidy up before it starts again, the longer this goes on the bigger the mess.
  5. Hey fruity boy. Short of housing. Why are there so many empty flats. BTS's and people with second homes. We have enough houses, it's just that this current bubble has put them out of reach of FTB's, if prices come down, and surely they can only do that now that there will be even fewer buyers. (Credit crunch and all) Then those empty properties will end up on the market and hey presto we have enough houses and no artificial demand. If you live outside of the SE, then it will feel like the HPC is slowly happening from what I understand with properties being sold off cheaper than they were befo
  6. It's been a long while, in fact a very long time since I last looked at the forum page, but the first thing that I saw were the adverts to get a mortgage, I have also just read that HPC was recently sold, albeit with the original founders still present, but I do remember that the purpose of the site (or at least it appeared), was to provide a counter argument against the EA's normal spiel. HPC's purpose seemed to be to inject some cool headedness in a time of heated property thinking, and to encourage a collective boycott of house purchase especially amoung FTBs, to help bring the property mar
  7. This should be a simple survey that anyone can do with 5 minutes to spare, and will give an indication, albeit unscientific, of how your local area is responding to the housing market. Most people recieve the property pages, when you do, look for one of the larger estate agents who do a broad spectrum of property sales including flats. Romans is a good one. Then count up the number of properties being sold with "No Ongoing Chain" If the EA bullet points the key features, this is easier still. (ignore auctions and commercial properties) Then count up the total number of property sales and make
  8. Exactly. It's just how long will that time be. I bought some shares 4 yrs ago, as a result of a good tip from a colleague, as did my wife, they went up a bit and then just crashed 6 months after we bought them, what I've taken from that experience, was that I was not informed enough to see what was obvious, the good days had been and gone and I was at the tail end of the boom, listening to the propaganda designed to prop a failing market.
  9. Stop the nicey nicey bullsh1t, with your there is never a good time take the plunge rubbish. 1993 Was a great time to buy 2005 Sucks! I've said that house prices won't crash in 2005, but they will crash. All you portentail FTB's, rent a room in a shared house, until the recession kicks in, if you still have a job and house prices have stopped fallling, that is the right time to buy. It might be 5 yrs away, but if you keep your rent low you will be better off. Remember interest on a 120k morgage is approx £500. This is the cost of servicing a mortgage. If you can rent at about that figure, t
  10. As much as I like a conspiracy theory. I am not in anyway linked with the Bull's on this forum. Who, for the most part, I see as being in denial. But I stand by my claim that despite all the signs, signs I add, that only we see, as we have been following the property market for years. Most people are too absorbed in other things to inform themselves to a level that we take an interest. I only knew there was a property crash last time because the media told me. It will be the same for many people who don't visit this site. Come October the EA's will tell us the crash was all a load of hot air
  11. Like most people on this forum, I keep my eyes peeled and my ears open, and I've come to the conclusion that 2005 won't see a crash. Three reasons Gordon Brown and his budget meddling with SIPP and Stamp Duty. The 18 yr boom bust cycle article in the Observer. Made a lot of sense. I spoke to someone who sells mortgages; Claims that 50% of transactions are MEW to pay unsecured debts (go figure) and BTL investors, (I thought they all disappeared) We should have had a crash in 2001 to restore some sanity, but I fear that it will be later than 2005 now, and then it will be a bloody big crash.
  12. I can wait five years for my fun, meanwhile I can say what a great time it is to buy, what with houses going up in value this summer and all. He will listen to what he wants to hear.
  13. One of my colleagues, became my boss, and has become an utter arsehole. He has been renting for years, and now at the age of 34 is taking the plunge and buying his first home. It's the best news I have had in a long time and could not happen to a more deserving person. He will be buying for the better part of 300k, which with a modest 35% drop in house prices over the next five years will mean he will be in negative equity to the tune of 105K by 2010. Fantastic! Tempted though I was, not to tell him about my doom predictions and HPC. Booming prices are not all bad news… Share your good new
  14. No they won't. What is going to push prices up from here. Sipps - given the borrowing rules I think not. Reits - not significant enough to make a real difference. The fact is that ftbs have already been priced out of the market, that is not going to change until prices fall. Unless you can actually give a convincing reason as to what will push the market higher, I think you should think again. How many times income can people still borrow to meet even higher prices? Will IRs fall. If they do, it will mean the economy is in a bloody mess. Will they rise? probably - and that will only p
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