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House Price Crash Forum


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About Strike_One

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  1. It may be the other side of the Pacific, but shows how quickly the craziness can come to an end. "As part of this inevitable outcome, one which presages the company's eventual disintegration and likely liquidation, Bloomberg reports that the non-binding rescue loan with an unnamed counterparty will be secured by a portfolio of mortgage loans originated by Home Trust, the Toronto-based firm said in a statement Wednesday. Home Capital shares dropped by 61% in Toronto to the lowest since 2003, dragging down other home lenders. Equitable Group Inc. fell 17 percent, Street Capital Group Inc. fell 13 percent, while First National Financial Corp. declined 7.6 percent. In short, the Canadian mortgage bubble has finally burst." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-26/canadas-housing-bubble-explodes-its-biggest-mortgage-lender-crashes-most-history
  2. I thought that it was received wisdom that US Treasuries were considered a bubble due to the Fed's insistence on holding IR's so low over there (as here). Not if, but when, I recall the likes of Mohamed el Erian of Pimco musing. Wouldn't an overnight lack of confidence force the central bankers' hands? Surely given the inverse relationship between price and yield some folks - including pension funds etc - are going to lose vast amounts of cash if/when this black swan materialises and prices collapse? Presumably with a great deal of contagion spilling over to other debt assets around the world, eg, gilts, eurozone debt, and of course corporate bonds which have been booming too for the last couple of years. On a similar vein, wouldn't a collapse in bond prices cause havoc for the planned eventual sterilisation of all the quantitative-easing money? (Not sure if I've got that bit right).
  3. Relative price levels are a bit of Aus inflation and a lot of sterling devaluation: - Pint of Carlton Draught, Melbourne airport (domestic), New Years Eve - A$10 = c. £6.50 !!! - Virtually every item on Tesco weekly shop is double in sterling terms in IGA supermarket, from bread to yoghurt to ketchup, and so on. - Average/modest brekkie for 3 in Surry Hills cafe (sydney) - scrambled eggs plus juice - c. A$70, call it £45 or £15/head - Copy of Economist magazine (UK £3.95) = A$11, call it £7.10 - don't get me started on property prices converted to sterling. Lots of marginal renovations taking/have taken place (on credit) - polishing turds - when starting from scratch would be a far better idea (and allow higher densities to reduce urban sprawl)... Barmy army peeps will have spent an absolute fortune this winter, particularly converting at tourist rates.
  4. Micropayments are the way forward, it's just a wonder why a Google has not stepped up to the mark....yet. News International's efforts to date have just been inept and clearly done on the cheap. The interesting thing is that News Corp / Murdoch only invested in these guys - http://www.mypressplus.com/Publishers/Platform - after launching their piss-poor DIY subscription model. When Press+ finally work out what works / gets seriously financed I think we will hear a lot more about them. The Times/NoTW's efforts are a classic example - much alike most modern political policy development - of why companies would be better following instinct rather than relying on subjective interpretations of focus groups and dumbed-down scenarios posed in quantitative market research (esp conducted online). Obviously, i spend a lot of time with modern corporate marketers...
  5. Withdrawl of products, and 'swarming' of Moneysupermaket-type good offers - it's supply and demand, innit? Prices go up!
  6. A very interesting precis of a period frequently referred to in general, but whose facts are rarely known in detail or contextualised - thank you for the link. For prospective readers, I strongly reccomend - it's only 6-7 pages long and very readable and accessible.
  7. It sounds ludicrous, but it works. I bought my parents for xmas a climate-controlled butter dish - they say it's it's worked smooth wonders through this cold-ish winter, & they can't wait to see if it can chill through the summer!
  8. Hello (first post!). They didn't by chance show the CML guy saying this like he did to the FT: "The housing and mortgage markets are facing their most challenging period since Labour came to power a decade ago. Luckily, the credit crunch occurred at a time when the UK economy was robust but even so the effects on the financial sectors are significant and the mortgage market is not immune from them," said CML director general, Michael Coogan. He added: "We now expect a slower mortgage market next year although by no means a stagnant one. Most borrowers will cope but not everyone will escape unharmed from the effects of a slower market so the government should make it a policy priority to overhaul the system of state support for home-owners which has lagged pitifully behind the times." http://ftadviser.com/?m=11173&amid=121572
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