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Everything posted by Errol
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UK furlough scheme now covers 8.4 million workers!
Errol replied to Warlord's topic in House prices and the economy
I think this means the UK has won! -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
Errol replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Sadly, the UK is not China or Korea. I don't think it will track or trace with anything like an equivalent efficiency or accuracy. -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
Errol replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Can't really see this helping. The virus can incubate for 20 days or more. By the time you realise there is a flare-up, it will be too late - and the people with the virus will already have travelled everywhere. Britain is too small to prevent this sort of travel. If someone gets the Virus in Kent, incubates for 20 days and is travelling up and down to London the whole time they could infect 100s or more (and those infected then go on in turn to infect more). So this would lead to a lock down of London (nobody commuting in or out, presumably) and Kent. And also other lockdowns of other places where people infected had travelled. As science has said, it is in large part the very long incubation phase of the virus which makes such tracking and tracing so difficult. By the time you realise there is a problem, it's already spread far and wide. -
It's already been shown that the more you lower interest rates, the more people save to make up for the lost interest (i.e. they feel they need to save even more to be safe or have the same amount as before).
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You will find this interesting - https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
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What will collapse next....
Errol replied to TheCountOfNowhere's topic in House prices and the economy
North Korea is akin to Crimea - in that if pushed, China will act to prevent it from becoming a Western outpost or base for US troops. -
Gold strategy in the current economy
Errol replied to Lepista's topic in House prices and the economy
Gold is going to $10,000 and probably much more. If that makes me a 'goldbug' then so be it. -
I don't ever carry a phone anyway.
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Gold strategy in the current economy
Errol replied to Lepista's topic in House prices and the economy
COVID-19 risks shut down U.S. Mint gold silver bullion production at West Point https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-04-15/COVID-19-risks-shut-down-U-S-Mint-gold-silver-bullion-production-at-West-Point.html -
Gold strategy in the current economy
Errol replied to Lepista's topic in House prices and the economy
Wait for prices to be well north of $5000 an ounce - minimum. -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
Errol replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
UK lockdown will likely be extended another 3 weeks. Beginning of May would be an ideal time for a review. -
Gold strategy in the current economy
Errol replied to Lepista's topic in House prices and the economy
This is a real book published by the German Central Bank. Something tells me they are very pro gold ... -
Roads going in to Cornwall every Summer show just how many people carry vast amounts of luggage and people on their way to a holiday. Obviously in the Volvo estate category, you also have to include all other estate cars, many SUVs, Range Rovers/Land Rovers, Pickups and some large saloons (which can also carry a lot and tow).
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Until there are mass-market electric cars that do what a petrol Volvo estate can they are just a waste of time for many. To really be any kind of replacement for Petrol, the EV would need to be able to: - Fit 4+ people in the car with a large boot full of heavy luggage and possibly a roof rack. With all of this also pull a caravan or trailer. - Run at least 250 miles minimum on a charge while carrying all of the above. - Run at 70mph+ for 250 miles minimum while carrying all the luggage already mentioned.
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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
Errol replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Agree. I was following the pandemic from early January (as were plenty of people on various news forums). It was clearly serious and yet no Western Government took any action at all. They could have ordered more PPE, prepared to hire more staff, set up Operations rooms, stopped flights from China etc etc. Nothing was done. And in places like the US they still aren't taking it seriously even today. -
Premium bonds are one of the least safe assets in the current situation. Look at the small print. The Chancellor can basically alter the terms at the drop of a hat - including halting redemptions, altering values, suspending etc etc.
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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
Errol replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Russia building 16 temporary hospitals to deal with virus: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8155247/Russia-building-SIXTEEN-new-coronavirus-hospitals.html -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
Errol replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
It's called international air travel. And it guarantees that pandemics are very easy to start - once nature throws up just the right sort of virus. -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
Errol replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Likely to be a US/UK Intelligence operation. -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
Errol replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
UK Government has admitted now to changing the way it calculates/announces the death figures. How convenient. -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
Errol replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Agree. Not sure why anyone would think Russia doesn't have nearly exactly the same problems we do. Putin has already declared a virtual state of emergency - with the army tasked to do all it can to fight the virus. Moscow is shut down for at least a week, all flights have been stopped, the borders nearly sealed etc etc. I would expect the Russian numbers in Moscow to rise in much the same way as our London ones are. Nobody will escape this, unfortunately. -
Gold strategy in the current economy
Errol replied to Lepista's topic in House prices and the economy
News from the front: Royal Canadian Mint closed for 2 weeks. U.S. Mint backordered a month in advance. Brinks JFK on half shifts (gold can't move). Brinks Utah recovering from earthquake. European refiners can't ship to U.S. (travel restrictions). -
Gold strategy in the current economy
Errol replied to Lepista's topic in House prices and the economy
It hasn't dropped much in GBP anyway. Still £1245, which isn't much off all time highs really. -
When you posted the comment gold was down an insignificant amount. It is down a bit more now, but still not that much (at least not for anyone who has been watching the gold market for a long while). Gold shares are not gold. But yes, as I said in my comment, they are an entirely different matter and have gone down with the market. In any event, a drop in gold is to be expected. Down to liquidation by people needing cash. The same thing happened in 2008.