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Quiet Guy

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  1. So what's all this then: somebody wants to start selling gold to the sheeple. A sign that gold has reached mania phase or just the next logical step? http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/21/gold-bullion-vending-machines
  2. Let's ignore conspiracy theories that the gold has gone or it's just plated tungsten etc. Assume that the USA has all 261.5m ounces of gold and offers them for sale with the intention of raising $15bn annually. That would be insane. The American people should revolt at this prospect. In the long run, the dollar looks doomed. China could easily buy everything in Fort Knox at that price leaving America nothing if their currency implodes. I don't think this will happen.
  3. Personally, I've bought all mine from reputable sources and never bothered to even weigh them, much less try the Archimedes test. I have noticed that circulated coins have a completely different appearance to uncirculated because the copper starts reacting to the fat, moisture etc caused by physical contact. According to one report I've heard, even leaving a new uncirculated coin in the sun for a long time will change its appearance! Some of my coins have a yellow, pale hue and others (particularly Victorian soversigns) seem to be very prone to red spot hence they look as if they've been stained with tomatoe sauce or something, even after cleaning. The thickness of the rim does vary. Generally, the harder the coin is stamped by the die the thicker the rim will be. My George IV has a visibly thicker rim than the rest. Lastly, the quality of the imprint on my new 2009 sovereigns is much worse than my pre decimal QE II and earlier coins - they seem to have manufactured bullion coins to a noticeably better standard in the past. If you want to buy new sovereigns, it might be best to get an order in early (while the dies have been less used and might have sharper edges.)
  4. Zero Hedge point out an (alleged) link between central bankers promising honest money and a recent lurch in the price of the shiny stuff. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-swoons-after-central-banks-promise-never-debase-currencies-again If it's that simple, we only have to wait for the next QE for gold to start performing again. How long do you think that will take?
  5. In the short term, a nasty slump could happen at any time. I plan to hold for years. Good luck with your trading - you'll need it!
  6. Apologies for drifting a bit off topic but who/what was the recommendation? I've tried searching the forum for positive feedback about Elm Investments without success. I'd be interested to hear from anybody who has bought or sold with them.
  7. I've never worried about this question. If it's wrong then it's wrong. If it's right then thanks for the cheap gold fellas! Since you ask, however, I'll point you to this often quoted alleged statement by Eddie George: "55. The fifth wave of preemptive selling in excess of two standard deviations occurred in response to this rally as the Fed, the Bank of England and the BIS struggled to halt and reverse it. According to reliable reports received by the plaintiff, this effort was later described by Edward A. J. George, Governor of the Bank of England and a director of the BIS, to Nicholas J. Morrell, Chief Executive of Lonmin Plc: We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it. It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded. The U.S. Fed was very active in getting the gold price down. So was the U.K." http://www.goldensextant.com/Complaint.html#anchor3130 (search for 'abyss')
  8. Sorry, I don't understand that bit. Shedlock's point is that during typical inflationary periods, gold did not perform very well which seems to be supported by the point you're making or am I missing something? (bear in mind that Shedlock considers the current environment to be deflationary.)
  9. They're just wrong. That's all. Mish has repeatedly made the case that gold will be OK in times of (credit) deflation but doesn't have a good record in times of high inflation (barring hyperinflation of course.) As long as credit is hard to acquire, gold should be an acceptable investment and also acts as insurance against hyperinflation.
  10. Jim Sinclair has restated his prediction that gold will hit $1650 in January 2011 - very bold IMO. http://jsmineset.com/2010/09/07/strapping-in-for-the-big-move/
  11. Food for thought. Gold is a currency that has literally thousands of years of history yet there is still a huge range of bullish and bearish opinions about its value today. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e9378c6c-b0b8-11df-8c04-00144feabdc0.html
  12. Mike Shedlock wrote some words about the performance of gold in times of deflation. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/09/is-gold-safe-place-to-hide.html Shedlock agrees that gold tends to do well in deflationary times.
  13. Have you bought or sold through Elm Investments? I've never come across any recommendations but quite a few people seem sceptical about them?
  14. Hmm. OK, that's a bit harder. Let's assume for sake of argument that you mix up your coins and don't know what was bought when. I've had a look at the IR site and asked google without success. There are 'LIFO' rules (last in first out) regarding the disposal of shares - maybe that's a good way to go when submitting your tax return i.e. your calculate tax on the asumption that the first half of the sale is based on the oldest buy price and the rest on the later buy price. I think you'll need an accountant to take this question much further.
  15. Here's a quote from http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/worksheets/sa108-notes.pdf 'Then, prepare your computation of gain or loss. You will have to do this separately for each asset sold. We require your computations and the completed Capital gains summary pages with your tax return.' It seems that you need those receipts.
  16. I'm not an accountant but I don't understand why you think this is so difficult. I don't think the taxman cares when you bought your gold - only how much money you made whe you sold it (i.e. inflation gains are taxable.) So all you have to do is add up the profit (if any) from each item sold in any tax year and tot up a total for that tax year. Deduct your CGT personal allowance and what's left (if anything) is taxable. Also, remember that sovereigns and brittanias aren't liable to CGT. I don't see how the tax man could know how much you gained if you don't declare it but remember that in a fight with the tax man you will lose. Not worth the risk IMO.
  17. I've gone off buying anything except .999 pure bars or coins for silver because these can easily be used for industrial purposes if there is that type of demand in the future. Just get the cheapest .999 bars or coins you can find is my advice. P.S. I wouldn't buy anything from China on eBay - I've heard far too many stories about rip offs from there.
  18. That doesn't sound good. Overwieght virtually always means fake. Will you tell us where you bought from? Pics would be nice.
  19. If you are bringing investment gold from Europe into the UK, there should not be a problem or any VAT payable. Here is a list of investment gold coins: http://customs.hmrc.gov.uk/channelsPortalWebApp/channelsPortalWebApp.portal?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=pageVAT_ShowContent&id=HMCE_CL_000108&propertyType=document#P57_5912 If you are bringing silver into the UK, then VAT is payable. If you want to smuggle silver into the UK (not recommended), perhaps it's worth comparing prices here first: http://www.silvercoinsbullion.co.uk/ Why bother with the risk of smuggling if you can get VAT free silver from Guernsey? Generally speaking, I'd have the receipts with me while carrying the metal across the border and don't forget that sovereigns and brittanias are CGT exempt in the UK.
  20. Hi RealistBear I'm intrigued by your persistent warnings about gold. Would you mind explaining the reason you expect gold to crash? Jim Sinclair has predicted ever wilder volatility in the price of gold as it rises (according to his predictions) but his case for holding gold as insurance against another fiat currency failure looks pretty reasonable to me.
  21. The Jesse's Café Américain website has issued a commentary downplaying the significance of the 1099 Reporting Requirements in Section 9066 of the Healthcare Bill "The change in the law does NOT 'target the sale of gold and silver.' I don't like the provision and think it was written badly, generating senseless paperwork for small businesses in a desire to make more business to business transactions subject to 1099 MISC for purposes of income reporting. I suspect and would hope that the interpretation of this law and its requirements will clarify the issues. If this change in the requirements includes what are essentially retail transactions then it is very badly written indeed."
  22. "provision to the law that puts gold coin buyers and sellers under closer government scrutiny." The issue is that the US government seems to be intent on building up a detailed database of everybody who buys or sells gold. "This provision, intended to mine what the IRS deems a vast reservoir of uncollected income tax, was included in the health care legislation ostensibly as a way to pay for it. The tax code tweak is expected to raise $17 billion over the next 10 years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation." Unless the gold dealers are accused of tax dodging, I interpret this as a plan to extract extra income tax from private individuals who sell gold or I am missing something? The idea is that if another 1933 style consfication is too difficult, then just put a tax on gold sales profits. Of course this new tax would be more effective if the government knew who has gold.
  23. ABC News have reported a curious development: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/gold-coin-dealers-decry-tax-law/story?id=11211611&page=1 "Section 9006 of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will amend the Internal Revenue Code to expand the scope of Form 1099. Currently, 1099 forms are used to track and report the miscellaneous income associated with services rendered by independent contractors or self-employed individuals. Starting Jan. 1, 2012, Form 1099s will become a means of reporting to the Internal Revenue Service the purchases of all goods and services by small businesses and self-employed people that exceed $600 during a calendar year. Precious metals such as coins and bullion fall into this category and coin dealers have been among those most rankled by the change." Not surprisingly, this is not welcomed by precious metal investors in the USSA. I find it amazing that a law like this can be sneaked into health care legislation. Could something like that happen here?
  24. Nobody knows. It all depends upon what our governments do. I don't pay much attention to any predictions going forward more than a couple of years. A better question might be what will $15,000 be worth in five years?
  25. Maybe you should be loking out for the next plunge before the next breakout. http://www.gold-speculator.com/clive-maund/33918-dont-get-fleeced-get-rich-crash-update.html "So let’s make this as clear as possible - if there is another market crash soon as expected, investors are going to do what they always do, which is go into blind panic and toss almost everything overboard, and that can be expected to include gold, silver and PM stocks. Yes, we fully understand that the fiat money system is rapidly approaching its nemesis and that gold is the ultimate safe haven and is set to soar as currencies become worthless, but that won’t help it much short-term during the crash phase, which is likely to result in a heavy reaction in gold back probably to its long-term uptrend support line. Silver will be treated as a base metal and will plunge precipitously as in 2008, which it is now perfectly set up to do. PM stocks will tank and many PM stock investors will be devastated as their cheerleaders slink into the shadows. All of this looks very, very close." I'm holding onto my Au but I'm also preparing myself for some pain in the next year or so.
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