dances with sheeple
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Posts posted by dances with sheeple
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5 hours ago, fellow said:
Does this mean we can rule out a Summer rate cut?
Fears grow over rate cut delays after US jobs shock
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/05/fears-grow-over-rate-cut-delays-after-us-jobs-shock/
"America’s booming jobs market has dampened hopes of summer interest rate cuts after a shock jump in US payrolls highlighted the strength of the world’s biggest economy.
The US added 303,000 jobs in March driven by faster hiring in healthcare, construction and leisure and hospitality, according to the US Labor Department.
This was up from 270,000 in February and much higher than the 214,000 predicted by analysts.
US borrowing costs spiked as traders pared back bets on imminent rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, which has kept borrowing costs on hold at 5.25pc to 5.5pc for five straight meetings.
Traders are now pricing in a first interest cut by the Fed in September, having earlier bet on a move by July."
The "hopes" of a cut in September will fade just like all the other nonsense about "5 or 6 cuts by the summer"etc., most of the noise is just total delusion from VI`s IMO.
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On 04/04/2024 at 13:32, Dweller said:
If anyone has the time to explain to a dummy what was happening when interest rates were up to 14 - 17% ?
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.aspDo you mean what was happening in society at the time, or what was causing the interest rate hikes?
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On 05/04/2024 at 05:22, Stewy said:
the US Army Corps of Engineers announced it plans to fully reopen the channel leading to the Baltimore port by the end of May – a significant update
Excellent news. Only a few countries in the world would have been so proficient (us included) ✓✓
Ah, sorry, I see what you are saying, the actual channel.
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On 04/04/2024 at 23:00, staintunerider said:
The size of those container ships and the sheer weight of them and the look of that flimsy looking bridge i think a 5 year old could work out in 2 seconds flat what was going to happen....
So why didn`t they strengthen it then?
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On 05/04/2024 at 05:22, Stewy said:
the US Army Corps of Engineers announced it plans to fully reopen the channel leading to the Baltimore port by the end of May – a significant update
Excellent news. Only a few countries in the world would have been so proficient (us included) ✓✓
I thought you said they had already opened alternative routes?
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On 01/04/2024 at 19:58, fellow said:
Wrong:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/01/temporary-ship-route-baltimore-bridge-collapse
"Authorities are preparing to create a temporary alternate channel near Baltimore’s collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge to allow “commercially essential vessels” to enter the city’s port.
The temporary shipping channel will be created north-east of the main artery, near the bridge itself, according to city officials. It will be “part of a phased approach to opening the main channel”, they said in a press release.
Olinda Romero, a representative of the US Coast Guard working with the unified command team, said the channel was currently being used by vessels that are “working hand in hand with the first responders” to clear the wreckage from the scene. It was not yet clear when it will be able to be used by “non-essential commercial vessels", she said.
The temporary channel will have a “controlling depth of 11ft, a 264ft horizontal clearance, and vertical clearance [of] 96 ft,” officials said. That is big enough to accommodate a Coast Guard cutter ship, but too small to accommodate larger commercial vessels.
The Dali, the Singapore-registered ship that struck the bridge last week, measured 984ft long – far too large to fit in the alternate channel – and many other cargo vessels are even bigger."
Interesting, certainly doesn`t look like a "Nothing-Burger" from that angle.
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On 02/04/2024 at 10:36, hotblack42 said:
There are many blow hards in financial services. They don’t work as senior underwriters in Marine or Commercial Property though.
Its not possible for a shiny suited try hard to sell hull & cargo, municipal or infrastructure insurance.
Also co-insurance.
Also, also reinsurance.
It has been possible for idiots to screw up retail lending in banking, or non core personal insurances like PPI or travel. Unsure if that’s still the case though, been working for a medium sized stockbroker since 2015 so out of touch with the big bank / insurer vibe.
It’s a big claim,but it is insured & it’s not big enough to budge the global numbers like Katrina or the like or push up inflation. If inflation goes up we need to avoid false correlation because we won’t then identity & address the real root cause.
Fair points, I don`t think it is a Black Swan inflationary event either, more another inflationary straw in an inflationary wind, and we also have to remember that people died on this bridge working at night to keep it safe for others to use.
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1 hour ago, nero120 said:
You have to understand, these people are the human equivalent of corks bobbing around on the ocean surface, utterly directionless and at the mercy of surrounding forces. This is the only time in history when such people could gain the kinds of windfalls with little to no effort that property has given them over the past few decades, and likely never will again.
Don't expect them to ever let go of that dream. This lot will go to their graves clinging on to such temporary fantasies. Meanwhile the market will continue to be priced at the margin.
Couldn`t have put it better myself.
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13 hours ago, Si1 said:
Future generations will look back on the housing boom of the early 21st century with barely concealed amazement and disdain , especially as low brow society and weak govt mutually supported each other in such a destructive and vain endeavour.
Good way of putting it, it wasn`t just the Can`t be bothered to think much Mob who got caught up though, many people who should have known better got seduced by easy gains from BTL, holiday homes, AirBnB etc. and couldn`t stop themselves "Upsizing", with the help of their friendly neighbourhood banker of course. A right mess that is going to get very messy IMO.
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1 hour ago, scottbeard said:
Why do you think there is a more than 50% job that bridge insurance underwriters are bad at their job? Based upon what?
As I've said MAYBE they did but my starting point would be that they get these things right a lot more than wrong or they wouldn't be in business.
Based upon, when was the last time a ship crashed into a bridge.......and the WHOLE bridge collapsed? You should know by now that just because they work in the financial "industry" or are financial "experts" it doesn`t mean that their models and projections are accurate.
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On 31/03/2024 at 06:20, Stewy said:
They like to think that they weren't pricing for bridge-strike risk, but now apparently are.
It's another Noflation Copium.
No, they were probably pricing for a bump from a ship that caused some structural damage and maybe a claim or two from someone on the boat or on the bridge for injury, not the whole f*ucking thing collapsing! Anyway it doesn`t matter, the U.S data today is screaming no rate cuts.
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On 31/03/2024 at 15:11, scottbeard said:
It feels like just because they never thought about the risk and cost of a ship hitting a bridge that insurers, whose only job all day every day is to consider things like this, cant have done either
Equally when things are particularly rare the data on them is thin, which means there is more estimation than usual. But that doesn't mean that it must be UNDERestumation, especially when it's in insurers interests to price cautiously
This bridge was built in 1977 so they've been collecting insurance premiums on this for 47 years, as well as on all the other thousands of bridges in the world that haven't collapsed. I expect they will be OK
They probably didn`t think that the whole bridge would collapse in the way it did, that is the simple point being made. It is similar to when bankers didn`t think that a little bit of sub-prime here and there would bring down the financial system, this bridge incident isn`t on that scale but to call it a "nothing-burger" as one poster is doing is just idiocy IMO.
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It is psychological, the bigger the gap between valuation and fantasy the harder it is for the seller to keep their belief system about HPI Forever intact.
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2 hours ago, Stewy said:
I don't think this will erode.
Bank of Boomer funds are still sloshing about, and since living is so very cheap, the only place it will go is into HPI for their children, nephews and nieces.
It has already eroded, gone, the sales stats tell us that, all that is left is a number in the seller`s head.
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9 minutes ago, scottbeard said:
The cost of an insurance premium though by and large is:
Likelihood of event happening x Cost of event happening + insurance company expenses + profit margin
For example, take something more mundane - the cost of mobile phone insurance is almost exactly
likelihood of phone being lost/stolen/damaged x cost of a new phone + expenses + profit
The impact on the premium of a new phone costing double or the likelihood of losing the phone doubling are the same!
What I am saying is that the potential cost of an event like this just went up, that is going to be reflected in the premium.
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1 minute ago, scottbeard said:
Maybe...it will certainly be used to INFORM premiums that's certainly true.
But the insurance industry does expect claims from time to time! That's what the premium is all about. And catastrophe claims like this in particular are expected to be very infrequent but then very large when they do happen. So this event is not necessarily unexpected.
However, because of their rarity catastrophes are quite rare, so each one adds a lot of new data. This will certainly have an impact, but not necessarily just a big rise, unless analysis of the situation reveals (for example) that actually such events are a lot more likely than previously realised, or a lot more expensive than priced for.
Any structure that even looks like it could collapse in ways not previously expected will have it`s insurance costs jacked up at the earliest opportunity IMO, they are not pricing the likelihood of the event they are pricing the size of the payout if the event happens?
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On 29/03/2024 at 11:07, Stewy said:
How has this increased the bridge strike risk? 🤔
It hasn`t, but it has shown that outcomes could be a lot more catastrophic than previously thought, therefore the risk premium will increase, and as pointed out already this is all inflationary. The FED are looking for any excuse not to cut, incidents like this just give backing to that excuse.
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On 29/03/2024 at 10:01, fellow said:
The insurance payout for this will be enormous and will likely push up insurance costs for the shipping industry so that's more inflation baked in.
And costs to insure structures that could collapse and cause multiple claims, all inflationary as you say.
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On 23/03/2024 at 00:18, winkie said:
Agree, don't need a logo......quality doesn't always have to have a name attached to it....
Meeow!
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16 hours ago, hotblack42 said:
I wish there was a way to short those headlines. Of course it will - the cost of re-routing and delays. There are also some technicalities around regulated warehousing for controlled materials but I'm sure the U.S. government will quickly issues new licences - business is business.
"It is one of the smallest container ports on the Northeastern seaboard, handling 265,000 containers in the fourth quarter of last year, according to container shipping expert Lars Jensen.
The Port of New York and New Jersey handled around 2 million containers in that same period, and Norfolk Port in Virginia handled 850,000, so the flow of containers to Baltimore can likely be redistributed to bigger ports, Jensen said."Don't waste time reading and watching mainstream news media. The straight dope is on business and trade sites. A Lloyd's exec on the BBC this morning noted that both the ship and bridge are fully insured.I guess some people prefer selective, doomster coverage - reinforces their echo chamber world view. Waste of life IMHO.This event will inconvience wealthy/faux wealthy Americans who have ordered brand new European cars and the folk who make a living from that line of business. Personally I dont give an S. about either of those constituencies.Market reaction:
Of course the bridge was insured, would be very strange if it wasn`t? The "market reaction" is meaningless, markets lost touch with economic reality long ago, this is a euphoric market phase IMO, based on FOMO and Greed, it is too early to say that some of those headlines are not accurate IMO, and as someone else said it is a great excuse for infrastructure spending which is surely inflationary?
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12 hours ago, Mandalorian said:
"State failure". Not "failed state".
Read what I write rather than what you think I write.
"For me, the most obvious symbol of how Britain is on the verge of becoming a failed state is the condition of the roads and litter everywhere"
You can`t have it both ways.
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15 hours ago, scottbeard said:
But those falls are already priced into today's fixed rates, hence why a 5 year fix is now about 4.1% ie well below base rate
That would be more than double what some people are coming off though.
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10 hours ago, Mandalorian said:
State failure.
For me, the most obvious symbol of how Britain is on the verge of becoming a failed state is the condition of the roads and litter everywhere.
A fortune in tax paid and you see the literal decay EVERYWHERE
An incoming government would be wise to fix these two problems as it would be a very obvious (and easy and comparitively cheap) visible symbol of turning the ship around. (Bad metaphor given yesterday, but hey ho)
Britain a "failed state", don`t be ridiculous, in the future maybe when the planet calls time on our little greedy human adventure, but not now, no way, many have been failed by the state but the country still ticks over like a well oiled engine every day.
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On 26/03/2024 at 16:29, shlomo said:
I was in my local spoons a few weeks back and could hear the conversation on the table next to me, one guy said to the other "not sure what i am doing here, alcohol has killed so many people in my family"
Spoons has wiped out so many of the white working class males.
2.50 a pint though....
Will the BoE cut rates in June or August, as currently expected? Poll
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Discussion on Bloomberg yesterday strayed into what could potentially happen to require more hikes. Average UK debt carrier is in deep deep trouble if that happens.