Bearfacts

Class act as usual FP, you even had that eejit Nolan agreeing with you in the end. high time you were back on the Englsih media giving it to the masses straight. We miss you.

He really is an **** isn't he ?! Scarey thing is he's in charge of the country and the money. Mind you he isn't exactly alone in this delusion. Several economists have failed and are still failing to recognise that there was a speculative housing bubble prefering instead to blame those nasty Americans and the banks for turning off the credit taps.

Correct me if I am wrong but doesnt this imply that the banks now have 2.3bn x 10 less to lend ? 23bn is quite sizeable , so if they loose that every month credit should become even tighter inspite of Browns best efforts.

FWIW the solicitor we used for the conveyancing of my father in laws house has also been made redundant. This is in the S.E.

From today's times : http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5778765.ece There’s still a long way to goHome economics: Richard Donnell Some years ago, I prepared a detailed chronology of “who said what” about the housing market between 1988 and 1994, during the last downturn. While there are a lot of fundamental differences between then and now, there are some important similarities when it comes to the factors needed for an eventual recovery. Unlike this time, there were few warnings about a potential fall in property prices. Yet as the downturn unfolded, one theme began to recur: despite an economy on the slide, most commentators talked of a pickup in the housing market being “just around the corner”. The reality was, of course, to prove very different. For this reason, we should treat with caution recent claims that pent-up demand is feeding back into the market. Such reports give hope to struggling sellers and desperate agents, but with levels of activity at rock bottom, we should not read too much into what is, in effect, no more than a small pickup in interest. True, some opportunistic cash buyers are snapping up deals, but the number of transactions this year is still expected to be 10% down on 2008 levels. Property has certainly become more affordable for those in employment and with access to mortgage finance. Indeed, by the end of this year, the proportion of income needed to service an average mortgage will be back to the lows last seen in 1993. This is an important milestone, but largely academic given falling economic output, rising unemployment and the restricted availability of credit. These factors all had an impact on the timing of the recovery in the last cycle; it took three years from the point when affordability hit a record low before prices and activity began a sustained national recovery in 1996. This was how long it took for consumer confidence to improve and the flow of credit to resume. The same factors will be crucial this time, too. An important difference from the 1990s is the fall in the number of new homes, which means a shortage of supply will become a real issue – perhaps sooner rather than later. When demand finally stirs, prices could firm quite rapidly, but the timing will depend on the severity and length of the global and domestic economic downturn. GO FIGURE -The increase in the number of inquiries and viewings has yet to translate into an equivalent increase in the number of sales, says the National Association of Estate Agents. The monthly market survey found that, in January, the number of househunters on an average estate agent’s books had risen to 242 from 200 in December, but sales remained at six per agent. - Rightmove, the property website, says asking prices for homes on sale in Britain rose by 1.2% last month – but attributes the increase to a burst of “false optimism” among vendors rather than a genuine market revival. Its findings show that for properties to sell, they must have at least 25% knocked off their peak asking price. Richard Donnell is director of research at Hometrack. David Smith returns next week Think we shall be seeing at least one set of figures showing falling prices this week .......

Sibley - you have a bizarre idea of cheap. Even after the falls of 20% we have seen property is anything but cheap - it is still woefully overvalued by any measure you care to mention. Probably unlike yourself I know how much it costs to construct a house ( having built one ) and it is a tiny fraction of the price people like yourself are still trying to charge. As for your idea that people wont sell their house cheap - that is a curious piece of logic. IF someone wants to sell their property they can only get what someone else is prepared to pay for it right now. Granted some misguided fools might wait for 5 years or ten or however long it takes for prices to rise again but many will have to sell for a variety of reasons including loss of their job, death , divorce etc and they will have to take the best offer right now. As for the new measures that Labour are about to bring in that is simple speculation at this stage and nothing else they have tried thus far has worked in any case. So do be a good fellow - go back to staring out of the window wondering where all the buyers have gone.

I agree the program was a complete waste of time. What I found fascinating/ irritating though was the attitude of the couple who bought the flat for £135K in Thamesmead that had been sold originally for £300K. Instead of looking at the evidence of the dramatic fall in its value and worrying why and that they may well be catching a falling knife their first though seemed to be that they could 'do it up and make some money' ! How ingrained is that notion in the British pscyhe - its almost as bad as the notion that we all respect the Royal Family, tjat the Queen mum was the nations favourite granny etc ?! Inspite of the crash in prices that they have first hand experience of they actually are convinced that they can make money on the flat - I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

But but but DEFLATION is the enemy at the gate .... Gordenron said so .. slash interest rates now ... oh you already have ..... print money - oh you already have ...... debase the currency - oh you already have ..... any suggestions ?

So lets see now; consumer spending booming, inflation 50% over target - what should the MPC do ? slash rates to historic lows obviously.

Much as I fundamentally disagree with the state bailout for homeowners in the US and UK, at least Mr Obama had something sensible to say about the mess. From yesterday's Telegraph ( can't find the link ): Acknowledging that government must 'set rules of the road that are fair' and that 'bankers and lenders must be held accountable for ending the practices that got us into this crisis' he added that ' individuals must take responsibilty for their own actions and all of us must learn to live within our means again.' He distributed the blame for the crisis amongst lenders in search of unrealistic profits, speculators gambling on rising prices, lenders who took advantage of buyers and buyers who ' knowingly borrowed too much.' Brown has been very fond recently of playing President Obama says. ...... I wonder of he'll be following the President's lead this time ?!

I really don't see the problem here surely all Mervyn needs to do is take a £20 note from his wallet , take a red felt tip pen and add eleven noughts after the 20 - sorted - see its easy - no problem.

Couldn't they just print the money ? - oh hang on

Seems the cash rich intelligence poor are having their day. Caught the tail end of some piece on Sky had an interview with an property auctioneer saying that there was a pick up in interest. He did also state quite categorically that he believed prices in the general market would fall another 10 or so percent this year and that only realistically priced properties were selling. Definite attempts are being made to ramp the market this year - again.

He's probably too busy dealing with all those 'savvy investors' who are 'snapping up property to add to their portfolios because they are shrewd enough to realise the market is 'bottoming out' inspite of the imminent depression !

Excellent - should take the wind out of the rampers sails. Yes, I know it is a lagging indicator.

I think you'll find that the Rightmove figures always jump this time of year - due to misplaced optimism about Spring bounces and greed on the part of EAs and vendors. Mrs BF works in a local EAs in the S.E (though it looks like not for much longer ) and she states quite categorically that there has been no pick up in buyer enquiries in our part of the world. Also we have been trying to sell my mothers flat since August when it went on the market asking £230K we have just had to reduce it to £145K .... still no interest whatsoever and this is in a very desirable village a stones throw from the absurdly overpriced ( supposedly desirable ) Sevenoaks - hotspot of the S.E. Anyone who thinks house prices are going to rebound during the worst recession for 100 years is frankly deluded and shouldnt be allowed out on their own.

+2 . I think there will be a real appetite for this sort of revelation especially if it comes hot on the heels of Mr Moores whistleblowing. It's a chance to do something really valuable, important and right too.I daresay the media would be happy to reward you financially for a scoop, might ease any financial concerns you may have. On a human level - good luck whatever you do. I used to do a job I hated and it made me ill for years - my self esteem withered every day I was there. Finally I plucked up the courage and left and now work in a completely different sector and I've never been happier. I actually look forward to going to work somedays !

Twas just the other day I was thinking how the country desperatley needs someone to stand up and: 1. State clearly in black and white the real reason we are in this mess ( the media and politicians seem to manage to talk around the issue all the time without ever directly mentioning excessively inflated property prices due to excessively easy and cheap credit as the root cause). 2. Challenge Brown and his insane policies effectively - yes the Tories have had a stab at it but they too seem terrified of upsetting the homeowners of middle England. Then out of the blue Mr Moore appears on a mission and he seems to be doing this for all the right reasons too. This has made my day. Just hope I'm not geting my hopes up too high ... I'm starting to believe that Brown wil have to go and we can get rid of Zanu Liebour soon too. The perhaps some sanity will return, we can let the neccessary adjustment happen and then start to rebuild an economy based on sustainable growth and one with ethics too.

Can't begin to tell you how much I hate that face. When I finally buy a house I am going to treat myself to a punch bag and print his vile features on it then punch and kick the feck out of it.

HE must have headed the ball pretty hard because its knocked one of his eyes off centre. Or perhaps its just the after effects of having climbed too far down the back of Mr Obama's trousers. Please Gordon don't show us your tongue !

Great picture - he really does look like a cadaver doesn't he - had he been engaging is some heading practice with a recently polished football just before the picture was taken ?

Accotrding to the sage of Downing Street .... the UK's housing market is different to the US and Spain. So expect us to follow the exactly same path within a month or two.

From today's Times: Halifax hikes the cost of its fixed-rate deals Homeowners are warned that fixes are unlikely to fall any further and may even start to climb James Charles Homeowners have been warned to lock into competitive fixed-rate homeloans after the first signal from lenders that the cost of new mortgages could be set to rise. Halifax, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, hiked over a third of its fixed-rates for new customers yesterday, prompting fears that the downward trend in rates over the past six months is about to reverse. Melanie Bien, director of Savills Private Finance, the broker, said: “Wholesale mortgage costs are not likely to fall much lower. Lenders who want to offer rock bottom rates will have done so. Fixed-rates are unlikely to drop any further and could even start to increase.” The average rate on a two-year fix has fallen from 7.08 per cent in July last year to 4.95 per cent yesterday, according to Moneyfacts.co.uk, the financial website. A number of lenders have offered fixes as low as 2.29 per cent in the last month as the cost of wholesale mortgage funding tumbled to its lowest level in decades. Related Links Mayfair owners take their homes off market Buyers lining up, but mortgages out of reach Halifax blamed a rise in swap rates for its hike in rates, but brokers say that it has been too hasty. Two year swaps, the money-market rates that banks use to fund new mortgage lending, had risen from 2.08 per cent at the end of January to 2.2 per cent earlier this week. But yesterday they fell back to 2.01 per cent. Ray Boulger, of John Charcol, the broker, said: “It is easy for lenders to blame swaps but the reality is that lenders wants to slow down the pace of new lending by reducing competitiveness.” Halifax has pushed up the cost of fixes by 0.2 percentage points across its range of two, three, five and ten year deals. A two-year fixed-rate deal for a borrower with a 40 per cent deposit has increased from 4.49 per cent to 4.69 per cent, with a £499 fee, adding £25 to the monthly mortgage repayments on a £150,000 interest-only home loan. The increase follows a similar move by Cheltenham & Gloucester (C&G) to push up rates on longer term fixes. Both high street lenders are owned by Lloyds Banking Group (LBG), the mortgage giant which controls 40 per cent of the market for home loans in the UK. An estimated 2 million homeowners reach the end of their existing mortgage deals over the next 12 months, and will have to decide whether to fix or not. Many are expected to revert to their lender's standard variable rate, which can be as low as 3 per cent after a series of rate cuts by the Bank of England. Lenders continue to restrict the most competitive deals to homeowners with a 40 per cent deposit, shutting first-time buyers out of the market. Thousands of homeowners have also been deterred from remortgaging because their ratio of their mortgage to the value of their home as increased as property prices fall, pushing them onto more expensive deals. Gordon won't be very happy !

Why do they even bother with their ridiculous fan charts ? How often have they been right ? - presumably not very often otherwise inflation would have been on target for the last ten years or so. The fact that they keep revising growth forecasts down shows how reliable their growth fan charts are too - they are just telling where we are at and where they hope we will be not where we are going. What a complete waste of time and money and yet the media reproduce them as though they were gospel.

I thinkl the low levels of transactions make for a very efficient market - it is doing just what it should be doing returning prices to levels people can realistically afford.