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Bearfacts

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  1. I think the RICS reports are a good leading indicator of where we are going along with mortgage approvals. Both of which are strongly indicating continuing falls. I wont be buying until RICS balance hits single figures and mortgage approvals hit 80k and as yet they are no where near these levels. There is still a long way to go do not be sucked in by the media and government ramping.
  2. ABSOLUTELY and yet if you read the media reports of this you would get the impression that booming is exactly what the market is doing. Mind you I have only read the Times and the beeb reports. The 0.1 pick up in sales per EA from rock bottom is absolutley laughable.
  3. As I predicted slightly fewer surveyors are reporting falling prices as compared to the previous month due to a pick up in buyer interest and record low interest rates not to mention the usual seasonal changes BUT the overwhelming majority of surveyors are reporting prices falling and expect that to continue. Not that I would have gleaned that from reading the Times this morning - absolutley no mention of the continuing fall in prices just a big ramping story reporting the increase in buyer interest - unbelievable. Same on the beeb. Still trying to figure if this is journos persuing their own vested interests or influence for Downing St. Can anyone access the historic figures from RICS .......... I have a feeling -73% is still very low and way more than was ever seen in the 90s crash ?
  4. This non story was just featured on Absolute radio as one of its headlines and trumpeted as good news on the housing market or for homeowners or some such nonsense. Gawd they really are desperate - question is are the media being leant on to push 'good news' or is it just the producers who have property portfolios - bit of each I suspect.
  5. All the estimates I have seen suggest a very small 'improvement' in the sense that the balance of surveyors reporting falls v gains will be slightly less than it has been but still massively negative, infact much much more negative than it ever was during the last crash. No doubt many in the media will report it as an improvement in the housing market when it will just be a case of things falling at a slightly slower rate or in reality falls being slightly less widespread. Rather like all the other supposed green shoots which in reality are just showing a slowing rate of collapse. Undoubtedly the report will focus on an increase in buyer enquiries - not really surprising as it is peak buying season.
  6. DOH - there it is right on the home page and I didn't read it. O.K I get the picture, trend was probably 3.5 before the latest bubble. Including the latest bubble has pushed it up to 4. So as prices continue to fall then the trend will fall with it too. Its OK I wasnt thinking of buying yet. I believe we have a way to go - probably another 20-25%. Incidentally I see Forex factory has estimates for the next RICS release showing balance of surveyores reporting falls v stable or rising as being 77.2% from 78.3% last month. Assuming the estimates are accurate any guesses on the headlines ? Massive improvement in housing market ?
  7. Thanks to both Newdman and Hamish for your input. The picture is becoming a little more clear. What matters is consistency over time i.e if the trend has been measured against average earnings overall in the past then measuring it now against male full time earnings only would be misleading. I feel sure the 3.5 figure was average earnings. Hamish - I take your point that house buyers probably tend to have higher than average earnings but that is immaterial as the long term trend has always been measured against all eaners. Lets compare oranges with oranges. Newdman you seem to have confirmed my suspicion that the Haliwdie and David Smith are being very selective over the time frame they have chosen to generate their trend ratio in order to push the trend up so that they can claim we are nearing trend. And thanks Hara too. I know this has been discussed before but having read Mr Smith's claims that we are near trend I just wanted to air it for discussion and elicit some other informed opinions.
  8. Just found this on the ONS site: The results of the 2008 ASHE show that median weekly pay for full-time employees in the UK grew by 4.6 per cent in the year to April 2008 to reach £479. Median earnings of full-time male employees was £521 per week in April 2008; for women the median was £412. The top 10 per cent of the earnings distribution earned more than £946 per week, while the bottom 10 per cent earned less than £262. Between April 2007 and April 2008 the distribution of gross weekly pay widened, with a 3.5 per cent increase at the bottom decile, and a 4.4 per cent increase at the top decile. Median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees were highest for 40 to 49-year-olds at £539. Male employees reached their highest earnings in this age group at £598, whereas women reached their highest earnings for 30 to 39-year-olds at £480. Earnings increased until employees reached these age groups and steadily decreased thereafter. Median full-time weekly earnings in London were £613, significantly higher than in other regions, where they ranged from £418 in Northern Ireland to £500 in the South East. The full-time occupations with the highest earnings in 2008 were ‘Health professionals', (median pay of full-time employees of £977 a week), followed by ‘Corporate managers’ (£727) and ‘Science and technology professionals’ (£691). The lowest paid of all full-time employees were those in ‘Sales occupations’, at £272 a week. The percentage difference between the median level of full-time earnings in the public sector (£523 per week in April 2008) and the private sector (£460 per week) narrowed over the year to April 2008, following annual increases of 4.3 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively. Reinforces my belief that Haliwide are fiddling/distorting the stats and we a re still a long way from trend. My guess is that the trend was 3.5 x av earning upto about 1999 before the monster bubble and that this last mega spike has pushed up the trend if you measure it from 1983 only.
  9. From The Sunday TimesApril 12, 2009 A question of overcorrectionDavid Smith: Home Economics Everybody agreed that house prices were overvalued before they began to fall more than 18 months ago. The question was how they would work off that overvaluation: gradually or suddenly. The financial shock, coupled with the abrupt withdrawal of mortgage finance, was big enough to give us a rapid correction. So where are we now? How much overvaluation is left? The Nationwide building society suggests that, by the end of last year, “real” inflation-adjusted house prices, at an average of £156,828, were just over £5,000 above the long-term trend . The further fall in prices during the early part of this year has closed that gap, which means that house prices are now back on trend. The Halifax, meanwhile estimates the house-price-to-earnings ratio (average house prices against average male full-time earnings) at 4.34. This puts it within 9% of the average since 1983 of 4. Some criticise the Halifax’s measure, but it is one of the few that has been calculated on a consistent basis over time. Some will say the Nationwide and Halifax are vested interests. What about the International Monetary Fund? It famously said UK house prices were 30% overvalued, which means they needed to fall 23% to get back to correct value (work it out). The falls recorded by the Halifax and Nationwide suggest we are pretty close to that point. Life would be a lot simpler, of course, if the market neatly corrected an overvaluation and settled on its long-term trend. In the real world, however, overvaluations lead to periods of undervaluation. The rise from the mid1990s was from a position in which prices were undervalued by a record amount. How big an overshoot might happen this time? The freeze on mortgage finance is thawing, but we are not yet at the end of the process. The Halifax’s house-price-to-earnings ratio provides a guide: it has fallen by 26% so far in this correction, against 38% in the early 1990s. The pattern then was that it dropped sharply at first in the recession, as prices fell and earnings continued to rise at a strong rate. It then fell gradually for about three years as prices stagnated and earnings grew, albeit at a slower pace. History never repeats itself exactly, but it does provide useful clues. Firstly, David - I don't recall you saying house prices were overvalued or many others either. Secondly these stats look very dubious to me. I simply cant believe that prices to earnigns are anywhere near trend. I believe the long term trend was 3.5 x average earnings ( a little less than £25k according to the ONS ) not 4 x average male full time earnings ( and I don't believe these can possibly be the 35k the Halifax claims ). By my reckoning the trend price should be about 3.5 x 25k i.e £87k not 4 x 35k i.e 140k. I think there is willful manipulation of stats and misinformation being sown by VIs - can anyone clear this up for me please ?
  10. As a bit of an HPC veteran I have noticed that every Easter, without fail, the VIs of the property business roll out a property ramping piece of propoganda under the guise of it being a bit of interesting factual research, in order to boost the market at peak buying time. Sadly, the media happily pick these press releases up and print them without any critical analysis, probably because it is a quiet time for genuine news stories. From memory the articles tend to be along the lines of 'Market Towns show steepest house price gains' , 'Beach hut sells for £150k' , 'Seaside towns show biggest gains' etc etc etc. All used as a kind of Trojan horse to reinforce the message that prices are rising and will continue to do so - so buy now. Now I know the Express has, as usual excelled itself in this area already, with its coverage of the CEBR report but I don't doubt there will be other stories. I was just speculating on what the angle will be this time. My guess is it will be either a piece claiming that certain areas are 'bucking the trend' or it will be about the first hints of green shoots appearing if not both. Any other guesses. ( Yes I am a little bored this afternoon !)
  11. +1 . Didnt BOA and Citi pull a similar stunt to start the latest rally off a month or so ago ? Seems that the profits were actually something to do with tax payer cash being pumped into banks via AIG and nothing to do with any pick up in the economy. I doubt its coincidence that Well Fargo release a statement regarding projected profits after the market has started to slip back again. Haven't they just changed the accounting rules too so they can value assets as they please rather than mark to market ? I have always found that scepticism serves you well in life - sadly.
  12. A local chain of EAs are pulling a similar stunt here in Kent with nice little pictures of green shoots - just in case you dont get the message. I cant recall the stat they gave exactly but it was based on a comparison of Oct - Dec 2008 to Jan -March 2009 and well, what do you know, there has been an increase in buyer interest. This is of course absolutley no surprise, to any informed person, because they are comparing the slowest season for house buying with the peak season - it will almost always show an increase in buyer interest. Don't panic they are just taking advantage of the latest ramping on behalf of the VIs in the media and Joe Public's stupidity. Yes, it might pull in one or two more gullible fools but it ain't gonna turn this sucker around.
  13. I don't think we should just walk on by whilst hard working property investors struggle. I think offering real help is the right thing to do. We should do whatever it takes to protect hardworking speculators because it is the right thing to do. And because we have low levels of debt we can afford to offer real help to people worrying about their property portfolios. I'll get my coat. Good to see you back RB, for a while I thought you'd gone over to the dark side.
  14. Oh dear the Bull euphoria didn't last very long did it, I thought they'd at least have had the weekend of feeling smug - just 24 hours seems a little harsh - oh well such is life. Oh to have been a fly on the wall when Brown saw these figures - wonder if its taken the wind out of his sails. Rinoa - as the 'end is nigh' said fair play to you for showing up atall, but please do let us have your thoughts.
  15. Don't worry - I herby predict by this time next week - G20 and Nationwide data will all have been forgotten as the relentless stream of 'bad' economic news rolls in. In fact I expect this mini bout of bull euphoria to evaporate like a spring mist as soon as the Halifax data comes out - could even be tomorrow. Enoy your moment bulls - it won't last.
  16. Just realised haven't heard from Realistbear in a very long time - where is he , does anyone know ? His input is sorely missed I feel. Tell me he didn't cave in and buy a house ?! Or was he bought off by property VIs ?
  17. I find this data unbelievable for the following reasons: Mortgage approvals are 44% lower than this time last year when prices were falling fast. Mortgage approvals are still way below the level at which prices would even stabilise. Latest RICS survey showed the vast majority of surveyors reporting falling prices and expecting prices to continue falling. On Monday Hometrack data showed prices falling 0.9% for the month. No economists were expecting this i.e there was nothing in any other data to indicate that prices might actually be going up. Looks to me like another statistical blip, like the Jan Halifax data, ( possibly inspired by Brown ). Annoying as it is, I expect normal service will be resumed next month and probably next week when the Halifax figures are rolled out. Still looking forward to the Express headline tomorrow - my guess - 'House Prices Soar Again'
  18. I think they started getting a bit excited when the number of transactions started to pick up and mis read that as a sign that the market was turning - when the reality was probably that a few more people were buying at substantially reduced prices as vendors cave in and start to get real. Spookily enough the same thing seems to be happening over here. The Telegraph had a headline stating that the housing market had been 're-ignited' yesterday based on the BOE approvals numbers ( showing approvals had surged to 44% down Y.O.Y ). I think that misplaced 'optimism' should be snufffed out tomorrow morning when the Nationwide stats are rolled out.
  19. I think Nick Robinson might have just got himself crossed off the Downing St Christmas card list ! Was it my imagination or did Brown look slightly embarrassed by the question ?
  20. As I suspected the threshold is around 80,000 approvals to stabilise prices 6 months down the line. Cut and pasted from BBC website : "February's household borrowing figures suggest that housing market activity may finally have turned a corner," said Vicky Redwood at Capital Economics. "However, approvals have a long way to go before they get to levels that are no longer consistent with falling house prices - in fact they need broadly to double
  21. Actually thats what the BBA said. Don't get too excited - I am sure this is purely seasonal - approvals still way down from levels at which prices might even stabilise. Prices still falling and will continue to fall - long way to go. Incidentally why do you want prices to increase - are you an EA 'Speculator' or what ? Please state your interest.
  22. Qute a big jump BUT is this anything more than the usual seasonal pick up ? have a feeling the threshold at which prices start to pick up is somewhere around 80-90 thousand - so still a very long way down - expect a pick up in VI ramping but further price falls for at least the next 6 months.
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