Bearfacts

Have to say I spat my coffee out when I read this this morning - just unbelievable spin - think I need to change my subscription to a journal that is a little more honest and unbiased - the sport maybe ? I think thr Times journos have their own agenda - must have a few BTLs between them. I think Ms Boyle has just invented a new wrod for crash its called stabilisation - as in Buddy Holly Dies in Terrible Plane Stabilistation.

Actually Rinoa is right - there is a discrepancy between the Halifax and Nationwide figures - the average house price according to the Halifax is about £7K more than the Nationwide - perhaps this is the month when we close the gap - so expect a fall of about 5% then ?

Quite so however , at risk of repeating myself, surveyors are saying prices are falling still by a very large margin and transactions are down significantly from the same time last year when prices were falling at 2%+ per month. Against that background a rise in prices would be amazing / unbelievable. The evidence suggests to me that we should be seeing falls of 2% plus.

According to Forex estimates - 1.0% ( thats minus 1%). I should point out that they were wide of the mark with the Nationwide data last week estimating -1.4%. I'm going for -1.5% inspite of all the VI ******** - transactions are way down from last year even. Mortgage approvals are falling again and the surveyors still report falling prices by a wide margin. I think the Spring bounce / bull trap has passed already - price falls to accelerate form here. Thought - Mrs BF ( works in local EAs ) says most buyers are cash buyers at the mo -- mostly STRs who havent got the patience to wait. She says they are buying but at significant discounts i.e 30% ish. Thing is these transactions wont show up in Haliwide data as they only deal with sales requiring a mortgage.

Had a similar problem with the sale of my mothers flat. Perhaps the situation is a little different as we werent inherinting it. However my brothers and I were managing the sale as mum is not able to cope with all of that stuff. The flat went on sale last August at a ludicrously inflated price of £230K - I tried pointing this out to my brother but he simply wouldnt listen. We spent the next six months chasing the market down, again with me trying to persuade my brother to see reality, to little avail. I suggested we needed to get ahead of the curve but he wouldnt be persuaded. Finally in March the agent advised us to cut the price to £160 K.- my brother reluctanly gave in. We then got an offer of £149K, we accepted and it seems to be going through. When we finally got the offer my brother mocked my ability to read the market - even after I had told him the market was going to fall back in 2006. I sent him lots of data and facts but it made no difference - he would simply not believe what he didnt want to hear and I think that is your real problem - infact I think that problem is widespread - people wont believe what they dont want to believe - I suppose that is the essence of denial. Anyway good luck.

Just to summarise then, interest rates cut to zero, hundreds of billions of tax payers money propping up the banks and being used to encourage more lending. Billions of tax payers support to stop repossessions and encourage shared ownership schemes, massive ramping by the vested interests, and the best the market can return at peak buying season is down 0.4%. Think we have a way to go yet. Rates can only go up, taxes are going up, unemployment is going up. Theres only one direction for house prices and it aint up.

This is the best bit: Mr Dooks told the BBC that the general trend was still upwards, and banks were continuing to lend. But he added that there would be monthly fluctuations in housing market statistics given the economic climate. People were reluctant to buy a home with property prices still falling and unemployment rising. "We are not at the bottom of the market for house price falls, we have some way to go," he said. Understatement of the day award goes to ............. Gordon will be really pi**ed off.

Stock market rallies have succesfully predicted 10 out of the last two recoveries.

According to Forex factory the forecast is -1.2% and its due out on Thursday. My guess is -2.5% - prices are still heading down according to RICS, there's a big seasonal adjustment to factor in and they will have to compensate for last months errant figures.

According to Forex factory the forecast is -1.2% and its due out on Thursday. My guess is -2.5% - prices are still heading down according to RICS, there's a big seasonal adjustment to factor in and they will have to compensate for last months errant figures.

And how does the FTSE react to this cataclysmic news --- it soars of course, up 2.5% as I type. The words rational and market are clearly an oxymoron.

Albert Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results. By this definition I think we can clearly state that the Treasury, BOE, Brown and Darling are utterly insane.

My daughter believes that we have fairies at the bottom of the garden - does this mean she is right ?

I wasn't aware that 'spline' was the authority on housing data. One thing I will agree with you on though is falls being around 35% - from here that is. As it happens Capital economics agree. There's a good article in the Times today from Seema Shah ( Capital Economics ) ( for some strange reason I can't get the link ) so I'll just quote the important bits: Affordabilty is not a good guide to house prices. As now, in 1992 affordabilty was 10% better than the long term average but prices continued to fall until 1995. Interest rates are abnormally low and will rise over medium term for this reason av houseprice to av earnings is a better guide. Based on NWide data prices need to fall a further 25% to return to long term average. Experience suggests prices undershoot by at least 10% so a further fall of 35% looks likely. Prices expected to fall significantly this year and next. Seema is standing in for David Smith - he must be furious - expect a rebuttal of these arguments next week form the world s least succesful economics forecaster.

No that is complete boll*x. Prices stabilise at somewhere between 80k and 90k approvals - which just goes to show that Hamish hasn't got a clue what he is talking about. Current level of approvals is 39k so just under half the volume needed to even begin to stabilise prices. Dream on Hamish. Still the government's handling of the economy is just desperate and unbelievably stupid / reckeless/ selfish - it just beggars belief. They seem to be in total denial about the root cause of the recession i.e too much debt and massively inflated property prices. Totally unable to see that they were persuing a failed business model and now think the best bet is to try and revive that model and prop it up with tax payers funds that they don't have but are prepared to steal from our children. I don't know wether to laugh or cry. Their incompetence is truly staggering. Their naked self interest offensive. Their mismanagement of our money criminal.

I can see no reason why prices should rise. Despite a small pick up in transaction volumes they are still at extraordinarliy low levels. The Rics survey shows the vast majoirty of surveyors reporting falling prices - why on earth would you expect prices to pick up ? You are allowing yourself to get carried along by the VI ramping campaign.

So basically our wonderful caring socialist government our ripping off the old , the vulnerable and the prudent in order to bail out the reckless lenders. borrowers and speculators. This is plainly blatantly unfair/ criminal and as such has the capacity to destroy our society/ democracy.

Just had a quote for an annutiy for my mother's care home fees - bit of a shocker. The quotes have risen significantly since last Autumn when I made my original enquiry. I have a strong suspicion that this is, in part, due to the slashing of interest rates by the BOE. So nice to know that old folk on their last legs are being penalised so that the reckless borrowers and speculators can carry on spending beyond their means.

Good to see you back RB ( the big beast of HPC returns ). Can it be coincidence that the latest round of VI ramping occured during your absence from HPC ?

Quite so, but the point is they are rising NOW before those little green shoots have even manged to break through the topsoil. It seems some speculators were getting a lazy lob on because rates were so low and maybe just maybe the bottom was in sight ( in their deluded minds anyway ). This news ought to cool their ardour. Poor old Gordon - did everything he possibly could to force interest rates to record lows to try and revive the dead housing market, and what do you know, the instant they get there those bar steward bankers start cranking the rates back up again. The only way is up yeah baby !

Why thank you for asking SU - Mrs BF is actually very busy at the moment - don't panic she works in lettings. Her last comments were that there had indeed been a pick up in interest from buyers and a pick up in actual sales too. HOWEVER that is because Oct - Dec had been totally dead i.e no sales and no interest at all. They now have a couple of sales going through but at 30%+ off the peak price. All the buyers they are seeing are expecting at least 30% off peak or they are not interested. Will keep you informed as the situation develops.

Rumours of a bottom being reached in the housing market prove to be correct - fixed rate mortages are heading back up. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle6104731.ece. April 16, 2009 Barclays to put up the cost of fixed-rate mortgages Sixth biggest lender will scrap popular deal and hike longer-term fixes tomorrow by up to 0.4 per cent James Charles Barclays is set to increase the cost of fixed-rate mortgages despite the Bank of England leaving interest rates unchanged this month. The move suggests that the mortgage market has bottomed out. Other lenders are expected to follow suit in the coming weeks So interest rates heading up, unemployment heading up, disposable incomes heading down can only mean one thing for the housing market - TIMBER !!!!!

Clutching at straws a bit here Rinoa. Sales per surveyor increased from 9.6 per agent to 9.7 per agent - thats approx a 1% increase from record lows. Considering HM Government has thrown every incentive it could at the market that's a pretty poor return and probably just reflects the usual seasonal pick up - same with buyer enquiries. Prices are still tanking. FWIW Mrs BF ( works in local EAs) says that yes they are seeing more enquiries and interest but that it could hardly have got any lower from the last quarter 2008, which was basically nothing. she says there has been a small pick up in sales too BUT the sales where they are going through are going through at 30% off peak prices at least. P.S Any comment on the DCLG data Rinoa ?

Oh dear makes a bit of a mockery of the beebs headlines about the housing market building momentum - funnily enough they have'nt reported the DCLG data.