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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by No6

  1. You are not supposed to notice this. Just go out and buy a £20 DVD player and pretend to be happy.
  2. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-759...pa_n=2&tr_t=buy Seems to be back on the market. Fill yer boots!
  3. At the current rate of upward progress it should hit it by July. And for anyone who wants to take my response seriously, please note that I didn't give a year.
  4. Elizabeth Magpie makes some good points. Seeing what the charts are telling you is a lot easier after the event when everything has happened and nicely stands out for you. Doesn't always work out like that of course. Robert Prechter is an Elliot Waver and he believes the Dow will ultimately go south in a big way. his 1995 prediction was 1000. I don't believe he's moved much on that since. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/g...n/2001/1203.htm A couple more sites below which may be of interest to you. http://goldennumber.net/ http://www.fibonnaci.com/
  5. Take some time and go to Citizens Advice or found out if your local Council has a tenancy relations officer. At the very least they should be able to put you on the right track of what you can do and your options. http://www.adviceguide.org.uk/n6w/index/fa...h_tenancies.htm
  6. Don't worry, all these new retail and office macjobs will pay enough for people to be able to afford these new builds.
  7. For a while there appears to have been a forth way to make money in Baghdad until recently - property. From an article on Reuters. "Estate agents say a sharp spike in sectarian violence in recent months has driven property prices higher in more peaceful areas of the capital, while prices are dropping in more violent neighbourhoods. The old real estate adage "location, location, location" still applies, but rather than the proximity of schools or transport driving the demand for property, as in most of the world's capitals, in Baghdad it's purely down to safety. Fearful of sectarian reprisals that have killed hundreds, families from the Shi'ite Muslim majority and the Sunni minority are being driven out of mixed neighbourhoods and are seeking refuge in areas where bombs and bullets are less common." And we think our housing market is looking dodgy? "Demand to buy houses used to be strong, particularly shortly after the U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, but as violence has steadily taken its grip on Iraq, few people want to risk buying, insteading looking for short-term rents." Location, location, location, now this gives me an idea where Phil and Kirstie should be sent for their next series. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/IBO863827.htm
  8. Yes, as if it's not a civil war already in everything but name. Iraq rarely makes the front pages anymore, unless something big happens. Out of sight, out of mind is an old political game. This site gives a better picture. http://icasualties.org/oif/default.aspx
  9. This was initially on at just under 80 grand, recently reduced to 70. Just looked and Rightmove have it listed as Sold STC. There are clearly still people about with more money than sense.
  10. Talking of muppet, can you guess which one is Henk Potts? Muppet Henk Potts
  11. No, not Banbury, but for my sins I work in Oxfordshire. I know many people who work in Oxford, but don't live there. Don't think they can afford to. Either that or they bought outside of Oxford, normally further North and spend hours every day on the motorway to get to work, slowly putting themselves into an early grave so they can afford to pay a mortgage.
  12. Surely the tenants could buy their house from the housing association, or part buy/part rent, just as Council tenants did in the past? Don't know what the arrangement was in this case when the Council sold off it's affordable housing stock, but you can bet your life the tenants won't be offered the properties at 12-14 grand each. http://www.housingcorp.gov.uk/server/show/nav.549
  13. It concerns me that poor Kirsty doesn't seem to have a second brain cell to rub against the one she's borrowed from her mate Phil. She said: "We need first time buyers to keep the housing market buoyant, and we need the housing market to be doing well to keep the economy healthy. These two requirements simply don't go together when the FTB has been priced out by the inflation of everyone's favorite asset bubble, the housing market. Perhaps the tories will give her a job as Housing Minister if they get in, or Chancellor. She couldn't do much worse than that nice Mr Brown. The economic understanding of both is so similar that if Kirsty became Chancellor you would only be able to tell them apart by remembering that Brown was the good looking one.
  14. I do not believe this. Charter Community Housing paid £12,000-£14,000 each and they are in financial trouble? Ok, they bought 3,680, but you try finding a house for less than 140 grand in Oxfordshire. "THE housing association that bought Cherwell's 3,680 council homes for £12,000-£14,000 each two years ago has hit a financial crisis. The chief executive and financial director of Charter Community Housing (CCH) are 'on leave' and three Housing Corporation experts have been sent in to solve its problems." It goes on in almost comical fashion. "Housing Corporation spokesman Naomi Evans said: "The corporation has placed Charter Community Housing under supervision because of concerns about its governance and business planning." And there's more. "Cllr Pat Cartledge (Lab, Ruscote) said: "We keep getting told how brilliant they've been. Now I'm flabbergasted. These people were meant to be the 'experts'. "My concern at the time of the housing sell-off was that this might happen. Social housing should be in the control of the local authority. There were other options. "But instead we were told to flog the homes for £40 million. I hope tenants won't suffer. I shall be looking to see if promises are kept." http://www.banburyguardian.co.uk/ViewArtic...ticleID=1379630
  15. Useful article below, but pure soft commodity funds seem to be rare. There is always the danger that in any bull market many fund managers simply jump on the bandwagon with few having any track record of knowing what they are doing. Just look back at the tech boom 1998-2000 to see how many new funds were set up then to take advantage of a market going parabolic. Most are still 70-90% down in value today from their bubble top price. Also, many a general smaller/growth companies fund got caught out after re-positioning themselves into tech and not getting out because of the heady gains they could show to attract more customers. I get a little weary of any market once a number of new funds to take advantage of it are started up on the back of the bull run. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2003219,00.html
  16. You could sign up to this site. http://www.bullbearings.co.uk/corporate/
  17. Google taking a battering today on news of slowing growth. On a P/E of about 72 at $360. On that P/E there is still a long way to fall when a growth stock fails to deliver.
  18. According to ADVFN. "By the close today, the FTSE 100 index was 84.4 points lower at 5,791.5. In London today, Alliance & Leicester was the worst performing share, continuing yesterday's sell off following the release of full year earnings numbers on Monday. Merrill Lynch added to the gloom surrounding the mortgage lender when it reaffirmed its 'sell' rating and cut its fair value to 851 pence. Alliance & Leicester was off 56 pence at 1,069 by the close." That should be telling people something. What did the singing pigs have to say?
  19. There may be some life left in the market yet with the ISA end of season mad rush about to begin (well, that's what all the ISA sellers will be hoping for). If so then it might be worth sticking to the old adage "sell in May and go away" or maybe April? I fancy a "correction" sooner rather than later though. Not entirely convinced that it will be a big one mind.
  20. No6

    Ftse In 2006

    I will give him your best wishes. You don't happen to know who No1 is do you? Bit of a sell off today. FTSE down 84.4. Accoding to ADVFN, "Volume was very heavy with 3.891 bln shares changing hands in 371,291 deals". Could be a bout of profit taking or adjusting to the Vodafone news. Some sell off in Miners, but interesting in that one of the big hits was taken by A&L. ADVFN again, "Merrill Lynch added to the gloom surrounding the mortgage lender when it reaffirmed its 'sell' rating and cut its fair value to 851 pence".
  21. Ah, the "never had it so good" argument. 1957: Britons 'have never had it so good' http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/s...000/3728225.stm This sounds familiar as well. "Mr Macmillan painted a rosy picture of Britain's economy while urging wage restraint and warning inflation was the country's most important problem of the post-war era." According to the ODPM, 1957 Average House price was £2330.00.
  22. Young ZZG must have had another life? http://boards.fool.co.uk/Profile.asp?uid=48639570 Before he became HPC's most prolific poster.
  23. Many on here would settle for 30% off of current prices, so you got an almost crash price and it's your dream property. Good luck to you.
  24. No6

    Ftse In 2006

    Here are some interesting thoughts from Bill Adlard, who describes himself as the Elliot wave guru, which arrived in my inbox yesterday. His conclusion speaks for itself. Whatever you think of his views or the methods he uses, the charts look interesting. Here's a chart of Footsie since the 2004 lows with some newsflow jottings. We go from "shares bask in interest rate optimism" in September 2004 to "January retail sales growth lowest in 11 years" in February 2006 via lowest GDP growth, falling business investment, a technical manufacturing recession and a five year high in profit warnings. Nice going!! It does make me wonder where the optimism is coming from. Probably the belief that interest rates will never rise above 5% again. Note how "strongest run of upgrades to analysts' expectations" was met only a few months later with "gloom descends on prospects for world growth and profits"! It seems to be pretty clear that the market's rally is based on some pretty strong optimism coming from somewhere, which is not altogether supported by the emerging data. That's a potential recipe for a sudden reversal. And here's an interesting trend channel in the FTSE 100. Could the Footsie's bull market be just a pullback to the broken trend line? If it is, that's where it will find resistance. Note that the five waves down are clear to see, and the three wave structure of the bull market also stands out. Both legs up are now approximately equal on the log scale. It's another setup for a possible market top. Here's some detail of wave ©. Each major up leg divides into five waves. This is particularly clear in wave 5. We're now in the final stages of wave v (circled). A move below 5681.9 will mean one of two things. It could well mean that the whole bull market is over. I think things are very close to this in the US as well. If it doesn't mean that, the least it could mean is that there will be a retracement of the whole rally from 4283, and the 50% retracement, at around 5000 is a likely target. So there's going to be some money to be made from short positions. I haven't issued a sell signal yet, in fact I've been bullish where others have been bearish for some time, but it's not far off. Footsie could still hit 6000, but the bull market is on its last legs.
  25. That's what they want to do - wear you down. It is difficult, many are in the same boat, but we know what is really going on. Hang in there in the belief that it's a cycle. The VI's will try and scare you, buy now or you will miss the boat. Some will give in, the wise will wait. These things take time to work out. Logic always works it's way through in the end, but when it does, the irrational behaviour will be in the opposite direction of now as prices fall, no takers.
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