Clueless Carney

Torygraph: Mark Carney doubles down on likely interest rate rise in face of 'inflationary' Brexit

As pointed out in the comments, the inflationary overshoot Carney so eagerly ascribes to Brexit might just be because the BoE dropped interest rates on the news and applied additional monetary stimulus.

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:45 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, Sep 19, 2017

What nonsense | HPC saw it coming

BBC News: The collapse of Northern Rock: Ten years on

The "experts" want to ABDI-cate all responsibility for being clueless. This very forum provided sound insight into the CDO crsisi over 10 years ago.

Posted by lvmreader @ 06:52 PM 0 Comments

Sunday, Sep 17, 2017

Its not Carney you should consider..

Torygraph: Is the Bank of England running out of rhetorical firepower on interest rates?

Carney has bluffed to get the market to anticipate rate hikes thereby tightening for him, and has done so many times successfully as the article explains. As the BoE are truthfully in charge of setting the rate then if the market doesn't tighten on his behalf and he is forced to raise, they are wrong-footed, and if they do tighten in anticipation then the BoE does nothing. Its like being a successful blackmailer. Where this cunning plan breaks down though is if inflation starts breaking out outside of the financial markets i.e. wage inflation. I have often wondered for all the CPI, RPI talk, the only thing they ever consider is wage inflation, because all of the data on wage inflation is to hand direct from inland revenue, and if wages aren't going up then neither are prices.

Posted by stillthinking @ 12:07 PM 0 Comments

Wednesday, Sep 13, 2017

Foxtons bashing

Moneyweek: What Britain’s best-loved estate agent can tell us about UK house prices

Estate agents’ fortunes can tell us a great deal about which way the housing market is going. Foxtons’ share price is in freefall.

Posted by frizzers @ 10:18 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, Sep 12, 2017

Halifax trumpets below inflation price increase

Halifax: Annual house price growth pulls up to 2.6%

... on the back of tiny volumes (see the time chart of homes for sale) as signs of "buoyancy". The 0.1% Quarterly increase equates to an average £200 increase over 3 months. Do they really have such a precise survey or is this just noise? Not sure how this, especially the +1.1% MOM figure, squares with the current reports of widespread reductions in asking prices. Is it a case of high variance in survey data because of low transactions volume? Or are asking prices so loony that a reduction in them is consistent with an increase in sale prices?

Posted by nickb @ 10:50 AM 3 Comments

Tuesday, Sep 5, 2017

Is buy-to-let lending about to get tougher?

Every Investor: Is buy-to-let lending about to get tougher?

Andrew Turner, chief executive of Commercial Trust, reveals what is happening behind the scenes which could have an impact on buy-to-let. The future for buy-to-let mortgage landlord applicants could get a lot tougher in the coming weeks, as new Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) rules around lending money come into effect.

Posted by andrew pelis @ 04:39 PM 1 Comments

Sunday, Sep 3, 2017

We can afford banks bailouts, HS2, F-35 and Restoring the Houses of Parliment but not social housing

Independent: Rogue private landlords given £2.5bn a year of public money, new analysis reveals

Billions of pounds of taxpayers' money is being given to rogue landlords who are renting out homes that don't meet basic health and safety standards, new analysis of Government data has revealed. Over the next five years, they will receive more than £12bn in housing benefits – enough money to have helped build more than half a million new homes.

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:37 AM 16 Comments

Wednesday, Aug 30, 2017

People questioning monetary policy

Torygraph: Be careful what you wish for in cheering on sterling's slump

An article that questions the benefits of devaluation, and by implication ECB policy.

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:54 AM 3 Comments

Thursday, Aug 24, 2017

Net migration is falling, soon negative?

Grauniad: Net migration to UK drops to lowest level for three years

Title says it all. It seems hard for our media commentators to spot developments for which the appropriate response is not "build more houses". I wonder how they will get there with this one?

Posted by nickb @ 10:25 AM 2 Comments

Sunday, Aug 20, 2017

A sustainable trend?

Notayesmaneconomics Blog: Is housing a better investment than equities?

"Moving onto the conclusion that housing is a better investment than equities then there are plenty of caveats around the data and the assumptions used. What may surprise some is the fact that equities did not win clearly as after all we are told this so often. If your grandmother told you to buy property then it seems she was onto something! As to my home country the UK it seems that the Chinese think the prospects for property are bright." As noted in the comments, regional variations, taxation, liquidity and the bailout of exposed banks in 2007 are factors in this complicated discussion.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:07 PM 5 Comments

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