Fears of a second house price crash. All we've seen recently is a mild 22.6% correction followed by a 9.6% sucker rally. The real crash that will take us down to well below the long-term average PE, as in the mid-1990s, is still to come. That's how long-term averages are formed. Unless you think it's all different this time.

..it's good for the banks (and of course we need a financial system - read "THIS financial system" - don't we?). US tax credits pulled forward housing demand, which of course is slumping with the ending of the credits. What was achieved by the credits? Well, they enabled sellers to get a higher price, courtesy of the taxpayer. This was good for the banks holding the mortgages that otherwise would have been underwater. But it also meant that buyers paid more than they otherwise would, so they'll lose when they sell. And what about the banks etc. who issued those new mortgages? Not to worry, they're insured by Fannie/Freddie/Taxpayer. Is the government propping up the market primarily for banks or for homeowners? I think it's the former. (Article ends with a bleak outlook for the economy.)

House prices are plunging by more than £90 a day amid fears that Britain is heading into a double-dip housing recession. In August, the value of the typical home has slumped by nearly £2,850 to an average price of £166,507. The figures, from the Nationwide, the country's biggest building society, show average prices dropped 0.9 per cent last month, following a -0.5 per cent fall in July. Many economists suspect this is the start of a serious slump with the most pessimistic predicting prices could fall by 20 per cent over the next couple of years.

With his £4,000-a-year benefits, the fake beggar made a total income of £27,000 - more than the average nurse, teacher or soldier. Last night a spokeswoman for the TaxPayers' Alliance said: "It's a disgrace that he's only received a slap on the wrist for claiming benefits on top of his illegal income. Charlatans like this leave us all worse off." Mr Terry told press outside the court hearing that: "I was never an aggressive beggar like the ones you see clutching on to a bottle of cider. People will tell you I was polite and never gave them any hassle."

There is music, drinks, food and smart people, but this is not an ordinary party; it is the launch of yet another real estate development in Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest city. Construction of the properties that are up for sale has not yet started and buyers will not get into their new homes for another two years, yet the competition for the best spots is fierce. When a customer decides to buy, the estate agent has to rush through all the relevant the documents before a competitor closes the deal. "Last night I didn't have any sleep because we spent all night closing deals," says sales supervisor Thiago Davidian. "My team sold more than 50 units yesterday and more are going as we speak."

Posted by jack c @ 03:37 PM 9 Comments

I fear for the UK economy. It seems very much like the phase two I and many others predicted is begining. The government stimulus, creation of public sector jobs, cheaper money than the original cheaper money and gimmick schemes like car scrappage and reduced VAT have been coupled with renewed Conlib cuts to send the economy right into reverse - where it was going before the stimulus came in.

Another useful summary of the numbers of homes coming onto the market, selling and comparisons with past years. Interesting stuff.

The Swedish central bank raised its benchmark interest rate Thursday to help head off inflation as the country’s economy surges, highlighting the divergence of growth in Europe. The Swedish Riksbank raised the benchmark rate, known as the repo rate, to 0.75 percent from 0.50 percent. It had been raised from a record low of 0.25 percent in July.

"The news that the Royal Bank of Scotland is to cut another 3,500 staff from across the UK is a horror story," Rob MacGregor, national officer at the Unite trade union, said in a statement. Since 2009, RBS has axed more than 20,000 jobs. The latest cuts come on top of a decision in May to shed 2,600 posts at RBS's insurance and British retail banking operations.

Posted by mark @ 12:25 PM 10 Comments

Britons will lose the equivalent of a typical annual salary off the value of their home by the end of next year, new figures reveal. Economist warn the gloomy economic outlook and the reluctance of banks to lend money will push prices even lower, leading to a second house price crash.

Posted by mark @ 11:08 AM 11 Comments

Naval-gazing economists who can't (or won't) see the elephants in the room.

In a short and desultory article, the beeb finally acknowledges that property is not a one-way-bet. They'll be desperately hoping that the Halifax figures say something different.

Posted by paul @ 08:17 AM 7 Comments

U.K. house prices fell the most in six months in August as increased supply of property gave buyers more bargaining power, Nationwide Building Society said.

This plateau isn't very flat

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 07:06 AM 50 Comments