Friday, Apr 06, 2018

Bank of England must tread softly to stop housing slowdown turning into a crash

Evening Standard: Bank of England must tread softly to stop housing slowdown turning into a crash

The biggest slowdown has been in the capital, which could have repercussions for the rest of the UK as price moves tend to percolate out of the city. What happens in London doesn’t stay in London.

Posted by becky @ 12:03 PM (2449 views) Add Comment


1. mombers said...

Fewer than half of London homes are occupied by an owner and significantly fewer than half of adults are homeowners (lodgers and adult children living at home are not homeowners). The 'wealth effect' has always been tenuous but even if it is true, it's more than weighed out by the 'poor effect' of people wasting increasing amounts of money on renting, sucking demand out of the economy. Rip the plaster rather than sacrifice a generation to letting real prices fall steadily so as not to upset the rentier class

Monday, April 9, 2018 11:30AM Report Comment

2. stillthinking said...

The renters are looking at the prospect of lower rents and lower housing costs courtesy of Corbyn, and won't care about the potential tax rises because they will still be up on the deal.

With competition housing should have ever more approached the costs of construction and that the Tories have deliberately crashed a free market with intervention is more than enough reason for them to go. Taxes still 40%. No resemblance to idealogical Conservatives at all.

That aside, the government now determines the savings rate. Interest rates do not. Who would save in the current environment if you were 20-30? With at least another 40 years to go to retirement. I don't think anybody would but there is now mandatory enrollment i.e. mandatory savings to compensate for low interest rates.

Monday, April 9, 2018 05:38PM Report Comment

3. mombers said...

@2 If a Corbyn government enabled a correction in prices, we might be able to move up the gottverdammte 'ladder'. Say a house goes down by £200k and my flat goes down by £100k - I'd be £105k better off (5% stamp duty). He'd have to raise my taxes an enormous amount to offset that

Tuesday, April 10, 2018 11:28AM Report Comment

4. britishblue said...

I think anyone would be mad to buy in London now. It is going to take a miracle for May to be re-elected. Brexit may be successful in years to come, but the election will come at a time when it is a nightmare divorce stage. There is likely to be fall out with Russia and Syria over the next few years an whatever route May takes she will be blamed. Interest rates are also unlikely to remain low for another three years. Both the USA and Europe have muted interest rate rises and Libor is shooting up.
So much dirt has been flung at Corbyn that I suspect it will be a case of cried wolf one too many times by the MSM. Corbyn is now favorite with the bookmakers to be the next PM.
If Corbyn gets in he will go on a housebuilding spree not seen since the 50's. The UK has plenty of land and he knows it.. God knows what will happen to house prices but if he starts promoting his house building spree well before the election, he will pull in all the renters and the young and crash the market. The Tories will get the blame for the crash.

Tuesday, April 10, 2018 05:13PM Report Comment

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