Friday, Mar 09, 2018

Can't believe how quiet you lot have been about this

FT: Foxtons profits slump as London home sales ‘near historic lows’

Their share price has been dropping ever since 2014 yet this blog almost went silent during much of that time.
Seems to be waking up a bit now. Where's everyone been??? Are there better places to go?
"Profits at Foxtons have slumped nearly two-thirds as the London-focused estate agency grapples with a slowdown that has pushed sales activity in the capital’s property market to “near historic lows”"

Posted by sneaker @ 05:06 PM (2192 views) Add Comment


1. britishblue said...

There are different phases of a crash and we are well into one in London now.
Phase 1 buyers become less desperate to buy, sellers stop increaseing prices. This effect the time taken to sell. It takes much longer. This was the phase we entered in London, late 2016/ early 2017.
Phase 2. Transactions go down but prices stay the same. Buyers become more discerning, they will buy the house in the street that has had the extension, the new kitchen, the makeover. They get more value for their money, but this does not effect the housing indices as a three bed houe in the same street is a three bed house. Less desirable houses get stuck with their sellers waiting for prices to recover.
Phase 3. Stand off between buyers and sellers intensifies, transactions fall to lowest levels. This was happening in later 2017.
Phase 4. Valuers start down value houses after prices have been agreed, sellers eventually drop prices in the region of 10% . This is the period we have now entered into in London. Most properties are selling at at least 10% lower than what the sellers expected to achieve, some at 20% less.
Phase 5. The price drops start feeding into the housing indices. The press start reporting on it. Sellers blink and reduce prices more, probabte houses start selling at bargain prices as builders and investors dont want to take the gamble. Buyers will only offer for lower prices than properties are being marketed for. This is is what we will see for the rest of the year, then a house price crash will be in full force.
What is the basis for this analysis. Well i run a removal company and i have seen phases 1 to 4 like a slow motion car crash and every customer I meet i discuss their expereince in selling their house.

Sunday, March 11, 2018 01:48PM Report Comment

2. tom101 said...

I like your insight Britishblue especially from the perspective of your profession. What are you noticing regarding particular areas? We bought last year and after spending a long time looking and talking to other people looking to buy homes. There seemed to be considerable amount of buyers waiting to purchase and waiting for discounts. Wouldn't this mitigate a crash in prices with the supposed 'fear of missing out' on that price drop? There was also quite a significant trend of people wanting access to schools and moving away from the centre. Sellers also did not seem desperate to sell on the whole. We saw a lot of properties and I'm guessing with reletively stable employment back then the urgency wasn't there. Mind you Brexit could be influencing matters more now.

Monday, March 12, 2018 08:16AM Report Comment

3. cornishman said...

Phase 6: Government steps in and moves the goalposts.

Phase 7: Same old, same old...

Monday, March 12, 2018 06:55PM Report Comment

4. jack c said...

Cornish @ Monday, March 12, 2018 06:55PM

Alternatively - Phase 6 - Tories let prices fall significantly, Phase 7 - the wealthiest 1% buy everything up on the cheap

Tuesday, March 13, 2018 09:02AM Report Comment

5. cornishman said...

Jack, that's what should have happened in 2005!

Tuesday, March 13, 2018 12:11PM Report Comment

6. jack c said...

cornish @Tuesday, March 13, 2018 12:11PM

They had ammunition in 2005 but I'm not convinced they have many (if any) bullets left now !

Tuesday, March 13, 2018 07:03PM Report Comment

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