Sunday, Dec 24, 2017


Torygraph: Housing shortage could put Corbyn in No 10

I think this guy is absolutely dead on. Corbyn is going to win the next election and housing is going to to be a big part of this. The whole point of the Tories is the individual and capitalism, which allows an unfettered market to be guided by supply and demand. Yet when there is a shortage of workers in the UK, wages don't go up, immigration does. When there is a shortage of housing, production does not increase because its all throttled by planning permission. This is all government interference in market economics, the -whole- purpose of the Tories existence. I think, also, that the only way to get to a Conservative party that isn't a continuation of New Labour is to go through a term of Corbyn.

Posted by stillthinking @ 09:02 AM (7347 views) Add Comment


1. britishblue said...

When a two bedroom terrace on the outskirts of London is more than 500k and in 'better areas' approaching a million and the average salary in London is 35k ( less for the under 30's) , it doesn't take Einstein to realise there is a problem of epic proportions for young people ever wanting to own a home or rent a decent one. Add on a student debt of £50,000 with 6% interest rates and then you realise that the youth in the UK is totally screwed. In the old communist countries like Poland and Czech Republic, everyone had free education, when they got married or had kids were provided a home by the government, a guaranteed job, childcare whilst they were at work and an opportunity to have a normal ( albeit hard up) family life. It is sad that we live in one of the richest countries of the world. that our GDP is the fifth largest in the world, that we have the prized international language, yet for a young person growing up today they have less stability than countries that were communist. There will become a breaking point and it will be anything apart from the establishment. Despite what the media says, Corbyn is a moderate socialist. If things don't change, there maybe an appetite for an extreme pivot to the left from where Corbyn is.

Monday, December 25, 2017 12:04AM Report Comment

2. sneaker said...

Why has it taken 10 years for this headline to appear?

Why have we not learned that housing - again and again and again - is the most fundamental issue of society and the ultimate cause of all financial crisis?

Japan - housing bubble peaked late 1980s - 20 years of stagnation
USA - S&L crisis early 1990s, housing bubble of mid 2000s - worldwide strife ever since
UK - housing crisis peaking now - this time it's different?

Thursday, December 28, 2017 04:15PM Report Comment

3. mombers said...

'“As Mrs Thatcher knew instinctively, the housing market is key to turning socialists into capitalists,” he added.'

WTF? I suppose that individuals under capitalism strive for monopoly. This works great when there is competition as any time profits get too high, more suppliers enter the market. But what competition exists in housing? Even with the most liberal planning laws, there is only so much that you can build on a piece of land, and building more tends to increase the unit cost anyway (compare city centre to rural housing). And when incumbent landowners are given state sanction to deny any increase in supply whatsoever, you get a completely rigged market. The faux capitalists then have to deal with a growing army of dispossessed and we may well get someone really terrible in #10...

Thursday, December 28, 2017 05:01PM Report Comment

4. icarus said...

Most credit is for assets already in place, especially mortgages (80% of all debt issued). This proportion has increased steadily over the past 50 years while lending to the real economy has been static. Extending credit for assets already in place bids up their price. Property rents become mortgage interest, which inhibits wage rises, commodity prices, consumption and capital expenditure (debt deflation). Debt-leveraged buyouts and real estate purchases turn business cash flow into interest payments, while a rising share of taxation (especially in the Eurozone) goes to paying interest to banks and bondholders.

As creditors recycle their receipts of interest, amortisation and capital gains to more lending for real estate, shares and bonds a rising share of employee income, business revenue, real estate rents and taxes goes to debt service.........

Since it's Christmas see

Friday, December 29, 2017 12:38PM Report Comment

5. sneaker said...

It is amazing how successive governments just sit and watch, unravel or unwilling to do anything about the social catastrophe unfolding across the nation.

If a government doesn’t sort out a social calamity that touches us all, what is a government for?

“Ah well, anyone under 45 might be almost unable to afford a house and the government will have to pick up the bill when they retiee, but at least we left the free market to it! And a lot of offshore oligarchs who don’t vote or pay tax have washed their fortunes into property.”

That’s basically where we are and it’s why people voted Brexit and Trump.

Yet still pundits can’t understand why.

Monday, January 1, 2018 06:16PM Report Comment

6. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...

Does anyone have figures on how much it actually costs to build a typical house these days ?
By build I mean the Rebuilding cost.

A couple of things that make me suspect it is low are

My Uncle's Bungalow in Selston is better than my £360K one here in Dorset but only worth about £100K
Some Joker near here has applied for planning permission to demolish a very nice looking 3 bed bungalow (probably worth £400K +)
and build two three bed chalets. That implies that nearly all the value is in the land and that the building is just something that can
be knocked down and replaced.

On of the best comments I ever read here was that the "Red Yellow and Blue wings of the Home Ownerist party won't let prices drop.
However, if the owners are a minority and prices rise too much that might change.

Rather than Mrs Thatcher the event that helped people get on the "housing ladder" the most was the slump in the early 1990s.
After complaining that they couldn't afford flats several of my colleagues bought houses after that.

Monday, January 1, 2018 10:41PM Report Comment

7. nickb said...

Hope the article is right in that we get a term of Corbyn or two. What does this country have to offer the young under the current regime? However, I'm not buying that it is a "shortage", the available stats are not consistent with this. It is asset price inflation driven by cheap (low interest) credit: more and more mortage credit chasing the housing stock.

Wednesday, January 3, 2018 03:29PM Report Comment

8. britishblue said...

ty@6. £80,000 build a 3 bed semi in most parts of the country if you took the land out of the equation.

Thursday, January 4, 2018 11:44PM Report Comment

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