Monday, Nov 06, 2017

Forget rates rise, expect another crash

Jack Rasmus: China shifts policy, predicts Minsky Moment of global financial instability

The Fed knows that raising rates will boost the $ and threaten US offshore profits, the US construction sector and debt-based consumer spending. So any rise will be token and insignificant. Capital incomes are protected monetarily and fiscally by the state in the US, Europe and Japan It comes to an end when Trump's tax cuts (part of the reason for global growth) play out and when China - the engine of global growth - reins in its own bubbles. Expect another financial crash in late 2018 or 2019.

Posted by icarus @ 07:45 PM (5471 views) Add Comment


1. techieman said...

All sensible stuff..... except ... timing is everything .

Thursday, November 9, 2017 08:43AM Report Comment

2. jack c said...

TM - could you do a re-write on this one for the housing market ?

Thursday, November 9, 2017 10:24AM Report Comment

3. icarus said...

TM - 'timing is everything'. Yep, and he puts a date on it.

Thursday, November 9, 2017 06:41PM Report Comment

4. techieman said...

Hi Icarus. .. yep had read the whole thing before i posted... it's just the deflation of bubbles of historic proportions are more or less impossible to time, especially when , as he says, central banks are throwing kitchen sinks at it.

So he maybe early or maybe late. Ricards also has about the same time frame.

A year or two out might sound academic but in the meantime the shorts get obliterated. .(and the strs are made to feel stupid) .. until judgement day of course.

Friday, November 10, 2017 09:11AM Report Comment

5. jack c said...

TM - your last

Friday, November 10, 2017 09:37AM Report Comment

6. icarus said...

Hi TM - he also mentions triggers - China reining in as well as Trump tax cuts playing out, so there's a clue to anyone speculating. OTOH, without speculation he's put the crash in a fairly narrow time frame, from which HPC people can benefit (If he's right).

Friday, November 10, 2017 11:42AM Report Comment

7. techieman said...

Hi Jack.... Jimmy Jones ?.Sometimes feel like I'm on my jack Jones as the perma bear left in the room. Personally I think we are closer to the bubble bursting ... is it close... but no cigar ? Been there before !

Friday, November 10, 2017 03:21PM Report Comment

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