Tuesday, Sep 12, 2017

Halifax trumpets below inflation price increase

Halifax: Annual house price growth pulls up to 2.6%

... on the back of tiny volumes (see the time chart of homes for sale) as signs of "buoyancy". The 0.1% Quarterly increase equates to an average £200 increase over 3 months. Do they really have such a precise survey or is this just noise? Not sure how this, especially the +1.1% MOM figure, squares with the current reports of widespread reductions in asking prices. Is it a case of high variance in survey data because of low transactions volume? Or are asking prices so loony that a reduction in them is consistent with an increase in sale prices?

Posted by nickb @ 10:50 AM (3986 views) Add Comment

3 Comments

1. nickb said...

for some reason the link above does not work - Techie commented on this before, so may be an issue with the site. Try from here
https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/House-Price-Index-August-2017.pdf
or google 'Halifax house price release'

Tuesday, September 12, 2017 11:58AM Report Comment
 

2. taffee said...

Not much has happened yet but all the signs are there

Tuesday, September 12, 2017 06:35PM Report Comment
 

3. nickb said...

I sincerely hope so. The counterargument (voiced in the forums) is that there may only be limited falls whilst interest rates remain so low. Certainly that would be a more viable mechanism for a correction. Meanwhile I suspect there is a drip, drip Chinese water torture effect of falling average real wages, combined with Brexit uncertainty on the market. The Halifax series 1.1% figure is for "between July and August" so may only report on transactions in July, hardly a leading indicator.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017 11:15AM Report Comment
 

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