Monday, May 08, 2017

Trend or Blip?

BBC News: UK house prices in first quarterly fall since 2012

UK house prices are "stagnating" and have actually fallen in the last three months, according to the Halifax.

Posted by wdbeast @ 10:12 AM (5654 views) Add Comment

6 Comments

1. cyril said...

"Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, said one reason why prices were slowing was that property had become too expensive for many people"
What a refreshingly simple analysis. Makes a change from people going on about lack of supply all the time.

Monday, May 8, 2017 12:14PM Report Comment
 

2. magnifico said...

What, no spring bounce?

Monday, May 8, 2017 01:46PM Report Comment
 

3. happy mondays said...

Really!! No Sh#t.

Tuesday, May 9, 2017 08:35AM Report Comment
 

4. hpwatcher said...

This will be interpreted by BoE as an instruction to 'Print'.

Tuesday, May 9, 2017 08:40AM Report Comment
 

5. libertas said...

Just looking at the inflation adjusted house price graph on this site. The trough of the correction is closer to the average trend than 1996 by a significant margin. I contend that mass immigration is resulting in utter chaos and that the falling inventories of surveyors could result in the hyperinflation of some residential categories.

I truly believe that prices will smash upwards through the trend line given how close it is and it could be utter chaos. We have almost 2 years of unfettered immigration now with an accelerating trend towards Europeans front-running border controls. Anybody who can, who seriously plans to move to the UK in the next 5 to 10yrs will do so in the next two, before Brexit is complete. At which point, immigration records and systems will be so shot that any new rules will be unenforceable for a long period, with an amnesty being the only practicable solution.

This includes, for example, any South American who can get a Spanish passport and use it to legitimately enter the UK. Head to some parts of South London and it is as if you were in S.America right now.

Saturday, May 13, 2017 12:08PM Report Comment
 

6. libertas said...

The recent pause and upwards flick in the graph looks like the little nook that appears in the chart around the year 2000, just before prices smashed upwards past the trend-line and way beyond.

If Sterling collapses, this could accelerate the trend, compounded by a BOE who will ignore inflation if Brexit negotiations are going poorly. So we could see 5% plus inflation alongside 0.25% interest rates as the BOE tries to protect the manufacturing base against trade wars, making UK assets like housing more and more affordable, if, say, the pound heads towards parity with USD and Euro.

If we head towards runaway inflation, after negotiations maybe go better than expected, BOE may then panic to the Hawkish side if prices get out of control with an interest rate hike that smashes housing, but this is likely to be after 2020 or, around that time to get it out of the way before the 2022 election.

The Tories will be able to do what they like until the mid to late 2020s as Labour finally fragments into New and Old Labour, with New Labour likely forming an alliance with the Liberal Democrats.

Saturday, May 13, 2017 12:13PM Report Comment
 

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