Thursday, Mar 03, 2016

House prices down 1.4% last month. More falls to come?

Halifax: Annual house price growth unchanged at 9.7%

UK House prices February 2016 (seasonally adjusted)
Annual change +9.7%
Quarterly change +3.0%
Monthly change -1.4%
Average Price £209,495

Posted by cornishman @ 09:19 AM (5225 views) Add Comment


1. reticent said...

I've been trying to avoid this place since it emerged that Flashman was posting with multiple usernames (or rather personas), but it's hard not to comment as things have gotten interesting with policy changes and the wider global economy.

This just seems like statistical noise from a slow winter. I have met too many fools rushing to complete BTL purchases before the April deadline to think the market has already turned. But I think the crash is finally upon us.

The foreign speculation shows no sign of picking up again and the BTLs are about to go on hiatus. I don't see things plateauing. In London at least, there is too much supply coming through. Supposedly the 1m+ market has never recovered from the stamp duty changes and the cancelled threat of the mansion tax. Then there's the foreign CGT changes, the Russian embargo, the commodity crash stemming the spending habits of most kleptocrats and now finally the Chinese slowdown. How much these things will trickle down depends on how many unwanted luxury flats get completed in London this year, but I think it's obvious that there is going to be sod-all fresh capital in the market in a few months' time. If a few BTLs/foreigners start selling up, things will snowball. If money starts leaving the country, it could even be that a housing crash prompts capital flight that sets off a sterling crisis rather than the other way around.

Or the slowdown might just continue to be confined to the top-end flats, the developers will slow down the pace of building, the investors will hold their nerve and some unexpected source of foreign capital will sweep in and save the day.

But somehow I doubt it. The articles about how scared luxury developers are and how the city is shorting them suggest otherwise. I think by the end of the summer it will be clear that the spring bounce landed with a thud and there will be some sort of correction. How much tax policy changes and interest rate drops can intervene when the appetite for such measures amongst policymakers appears to have waned considerably, is, as ever, anybody's guess.

Thursday, March 3, 2016 12:41PM Report Comment

2. Dontpanic said...

Its "a slow train coming".

Thursday, March 3, 2016 12:55PM Report Comment

3. sibley's b'stard child said...

Ever so slightly less bonkers than last month. Despite that, the housing market is still clinically insane and requires shock therapy.

Thursday, March 3, 2016 01:13PM Report Comment

4. libertas said...

I can't see it with family houses. Yes, luxury flats may suffer, but there is a huge shortage of 3 bed houses, particularly in London and as we know from National Insurance number issuance, immigration is probably triple what has been reported with much of that flooding into London. There will also be an immigrant rush before the refrendum that will likely be sustained after it due to ongoing European woes.

Plus look for October when 80 million Turks get passport free access to the EU alongside a mass black market for fake Turkish passports for the flood of refugees. As said, these will end up primarily in north east London, in places like Stoke Newington, Haringey and Edmonton, where there are existing Turkish communities. This has been rushed so fast that transitional controls have not even been discussed in the media. This is effectively an amnesty so that they can claim that there are no asylum seekers, when in-fact, these will be converted into EU citizens.

Thursday, March 3, 2016 01:48PM Report Comment

5. techieman said...

Pick the bones out of this lot! :

Mortgage approvals higher. The volume of mortgage approvals for house purchases a leading indicator of completed house sales increased by 5% between December and January. Approvals, at 74,600, were the highest since January 2014. (Source: Bank of England, seasonally-adjusted figures)

Supply remains very low but signs of slight improvement. New instructions by home sellers increased in January for the second consecutive month. This contributed to the first rise in the stock of secondhand properties for sale for ten months. (Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) monthly report)

Number of new homes built increases. Private sector housebuilding completions in England increased by 7% between Quarter 3 and Quarter 4 2015. Overall, private sector completions in 2015 were 20% higher than in 2014; totalling the highest annual total since 2008. (Source: DCLG)

Wasn't aware of the Flashman personas myself! As for the rest .... well limited upside v quite possible downside.

Thursday, March 3, 2016 01:49PM Report Comment

6. libertas said...

Much like how the government claimed that immigration had fallen, by redefining immigration as migration from outside the EU. EU migration is now considered to not count as immigration in the same way that migration between US states is not considered migration.

Thursday, March 3, 2016 01:50PM Report Comment

7. reticent said...

I was mostly talking about London, Techie.

It's not so much of a question of a supply glut as a ton of luxury properties being built for whom the buyers just aren't there anymore. Obviously, they're not all about to hit the market tomorrow but I read and hear that those that have just been completed aren't selling.

Incidentally, I have always meant to ask you but never got around to it before you disappeared last time: would you mind recommending a book/site where one could get a primer on the sort of technical analysis you hold stock by? It seems like the sort of field where it's hard to know what's a reliable source and what's not.

Thursday, March 3, 2016 03:29PM Report Comment

8. libertas said...

reticent, you should be referring to central prime London. There is not a glut of new flats in the suburbs. That will come to pass in future however as a result of soaring suburban prices.

Thursday, March 3, 2016 04:16PM Report Comment

9. techieman said...

Hi reticent. Btw keiser report today has Ashcroft and Keen talking about bubbles in housing apparently.

Ill watch that later.

As for recommending something re tech analysis. I had a bit of a nightmare some time back and went back to the drawing board. ( re indices although Gold and currencies did pretty good).

I wpuld recommend looking at Hurst and Sentient trader. For a quite reasonable amount you can get 3 signals which cones with alot of material to explain how to use em.

Thursday, March 3, 2016 05:44PM Report Comment

10. hpwatcher said...

I've been trying to avoid this place since it emerged that Flashman was posting with multiple usernames (or rather personas), but it's hard not to comment as things have gotten interesting with policy changes and the wider global economy.

Shocking I know.

Thursday, March 3, 2016 06:13PM Report Comment

11. mombers said...

which other personas has flashman posted under BTW? judganjury, what else?

Friday, March 4, 2016 03:14PM Report Comment

12. reticent said...

Thanks TM. Yes, back to basics sounds like the sort of thing I'm interested in. It's very hard to tell new pet theories from more established modes of thinking by searching online without someone who knows what they're talking about pointing you in the right direction. That's certainly what I've found with economics.

I'll check those out, thank you.

@10 I established nothing else. Another commenter made some cryptic comment about one IP address being associated with 4 usernames. The only other comment I could find by them was one claiming several years ago that they used to work for Fubra and the owner of the site and some of the employees use sock-puppet accounts to make the site look more busy (perhaps that's where those rumours began). It was unclear whether they were referring to PG or Flashy, as Flashy had accused PG of having 3 other accounts. I tried looking through dev tools at the source code, but could find no record of IP addresses, so I imagine, if there was any truth to it that IP addresses of posters could only be determined server side. Having wasted some down time on a quiet day at work searching for the use of idiosyncratic idioms, I established absolutely nothing. At that point, I had wasted several hours trying to enlighten J&J's feigned ignorance about issues of intergenerational fairness and several hours trying to spot patterns in old comments to identify sock puppet accounts. Then I decided not to comment anymore. I've been accused of being Flashman more than once I think. As I said when Titaniccaptain said it, there are so few commenters left here, that if sock-puppetry were going on, there would be even less of us, and that would make the whole thing a bit depressing. Once I realised that there was actually some truth to it and I no longer had any certainty that I was holding discussions with real people voicing their own unfabricated opinions, I jacked it in.

I've not really changed my mind tbh. I just wanted to chime in, because it looks like there might finally be some forced sellers (London luxury developers) and a drying up of demand (BTL, foreigners).

I hope that those of you who are not figments of other commenters' imaginations are well and well-positioned for what seems likely to develop into a full-blown nationwide hpc.

Monday, March 7, 2016 10:45AM Report Comment

13. techieman said...

Reticent if u look at sentient trader youtube there will be (prob tomorrow) a video with a half price one month offer. (The vid was done 2day).

just look at the end for the link to the deal.

And no im not on commission or anything.Good luck

Monday, March 7, 2016 09:55PM Report Comment

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