Thursday, Feb 25, 2016

Reasonable summary of factors

True Publica: Britain’s House Price Crash – 2016 Predictions Mount 8th February 2016 / United Kingdom

All looking very precarious now.... from overindebted brits to evaporation of "funny money" and taxation treatment of BTL. If we were to leave the EU then I think the pound is gonna struggle - and of course liquidating a portfolio or even an individual property is going to be challenging.
Interesting cocktail.

Posted by techieman @ 09:36 AM (4533 views) Add Comment


1. Alan Lubin said...

Couldn't find anything in that article about Enfield so I'm assuming it will continue unscathed?

Thursday, February 25, 2016 11:52AM Report Comment

2. a saver said...

Thanks for posting techieman, really useful to see what the commentators are saying. Some HPCers may have missed the article, as it wasn't accessible right after you posted due to website issues - which seem to be fixed now.
Buying Persimmon shares as soon as the gov announced the heinous help to sell scheme proved to be one of my better decisions (boy there's been some bad ones), but timing when to get out of the housebuilder party is another matter. If the gov were to actually deliver on their promise to get more houses built it might go on a bit longer....

Sunday, February 28, 2016 09:33AM Report Comment

3. britishblue said...

Great article. One to keep

Monday, February 29, 2016 05:33PM Report Comment

4. libertas said...

It is WRONG to compare this to 1988, because that was when inflation and interest rates were in DOUBLE DIGITS and during a time when even the French had to apply for a visa to move to London.

In this crazy parallel world, any negative shock will be met by negative rates and so long as the London market remains better than the abysmal continental European situation, people will continue to flood into London. As we just discovered, 80m Turks are about to gain access to Europe and we will see them front-running this with a new black market in fake Turkish passports being born. Many of these will head to north east London to the establish Turkish communities.

Tuesday, March 1, 2016 09:40PM Report Comment

5. techieman said...

Libby... really what is wrong with you ?

You seem to be confusing things. The comparison with 1988 is the loss of mortgage interest relief at source per person. In that case purchasers AFTER Aug 1988 (it was announced in April - the author got that wrong) were only allowed MIRAS per property.

Everyone knew that and so bid up prices... only to find after that no one could then afford to buy at the inflated prices.

The modern day equivalent is the tax treatment of BTL and the 3% stamp duty rise come April the 1st.

in any case if irs were so high they cpuld come down. Irs being so low is already locked in.

you need to assess whats going to change not where we are now.

Thursday, March 3, 2016 09:09AM Report Comment

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