Wednesday, Sep 29, 2010
For Hash Browne
Daily Express: HOUSE PRICES RISING BUT NORTH-SOUTH GAP IS WIDER
HOUSE prices defied expectations and rose last month to their highest level for two years, statistics showed yesterday. The 0.3 per cent jump reported by the Land Registry contradicts a run of grim data about the health of the market and was greeted with relief by experts.
Posted by little professor @ 02:44 AM (2183 views) Add Comment
29 Comments
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1. little professor said...
Guaranteed to be front page news in the EXPRESS tomorrow!
Tuesday, September 28, 2010 11:25AM
___
2. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
3. brickormortis said...
It fully supports the time lag we experience from land registry. Next month will be negative - for sure!
4. Slartibartfast said...
Daily Express Ratings
Content: Awful (10 votes)
Political Bias: Conservative (10 votes)
Credibility: Very Low (9 votes)
5. slartibartfast said...
Daily Express Ratings
Content: Awful (10 votes)
Political Bias: Conservative (10 votes)
Credibility: Very Low (9 votes)
6. str 2007 said...
Greater by relief by experts.
'Experts' who have yet figured out this indecise is a lagging indicator.
7. str 2007 said...
Oh I hate predictive text.
'greeted' with relief by experts.
8. hpwatcher said...
Closing the tag.
9. hpwatcher said...
Closing the tag.
10. Rantnrave said...
And guess who's cheering the news on in the comments section...
GREAT HEADLINES.
29.09.10, 12:40am
Only a handful of people want house prices to fall. The majority of working people will greet this latest news with a happy face this morning. I think it shows once and for all that the UK is back on track. Lets hope they continue to rise.
11. righttoleech said...
experts = ramping VI scum
12. smugdog said...
Reporting a nationally released housing statistic = ramping VI scum!
How do you arrive at that conclusion then?
13. inbreda said...
smugdog, right to leech didn't mention anything about housing statistics. You made that bit up. He referred to experts. often known as vested interests disguising themselves as experts.
14. mark wadsworth said...
"was greeted with relief by experts"????????
"was greeted with much hilarity by those doomsters over at HPC who point out that HMLR data merely restates what Nationwide told us three months ago" more like.
@ PhD, keep updatin' your fine spreadsheet!
15. pelethar said...
Come on guys. There's nothing wrong with your logic - it's undeniably true that LR figures lag nationwide/halifax by around 3 months - but if this showed a 0.3% drop I can guarantee we would all be leaping on it with glee rather than writing it off.
The Express is irritating, but they printed headlines like this all the way through the 2008 crash, and they will continue to do so every time any one of the surveys shows a monthly rise. Anyone remember the headline they printed after about eight months of consecutive falls last time which took the annual rise to 0.1% - "House Prices Still On the Up"!
My point is we don't do ourselves any favours by just dismissing every survey we don't like as irrelevant or flawed.
16. J-hi said...
This is great! It will simply tempt more sellers back into the market, creating more over-supply and driving prices down further and faster.
17. techieman said...
pletehar - nope dont agree with that. Say If i am trying to sell my house now, would i be interested in the Nationwide indexes to sell it or the Land Reg?
And because it lags , there have been times when the Land Reg was going down and the nationwide going up. So as a seller then should i use the Land Reg to base my sale price or nationwide?
Since nationwide and halifax are on a similar base then they should be compared and contrasted, but phd in bubbles graph says it all really.
18. pelethar said...
I didn't intend to start a debate on one survey vs another - that's been done to death and I think fair to say they all have their ups, downs and foibles. No question that the LR figures are much more of a lagging indicator than others. All I was saying was that it reflects poorly on this site and its users if we continue to trumpet every survey which shows a decline and dismiss every one which shows an increase.
19. mark wadsworth said...
@ pelethar, that is why we ought to just concentrate on Nationwide, which all things considered is the "best" index.
And of course, what any individual cares about is prices in his or her area, in some places prices are rising and in others they are falling.
20. hash browne said...
...if only everything was as predictable as the Express...
...for my next prediction... Nationwide will show prices "easing" by 1.2% and a tiny article will be hidden deep within the Express Money pages...
21. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
22. smugdog said...
Correct MW, the figures only give a broad indication. My area grips on to peak prices for dear death.
Most have no intention of selling and thank Merv very much for the stacks of cash that he has presented them with.
It only matters in your own locality and the area you wish to eventually buy. Local knowledge is king.
23. alan_540 said...
@17 techieman - Have you or PhD got a link to this graph?
24. phdinbubbles said...
@alan_540
If you click on the picture of the Express front page that LP has posted it will take you to the thread with it on. I haven't updated it with the latest LR figure yet.
I think the nationwide should be out tomorrow. Would a third month of falls be counted as a trend?
25. alan_540 said...
Thanks PhD
26. alan_540 said...
That doesn't link to another thread, it's on the Express website. Yes, I think a trend is beginning to emerge... My prediction is bottom of the market by 2018 which gives my kids plenty of time to save up a deposit with any luck.
27. phdinbubbles said...
alan_540
It links to the thread on my browser - I've pasted it again below.
2015-2017ish was the guess I came up with for the bottom a couple of years ago, although the last few years might be a stagnation in nominal prices with slow erosion against inflation. I still think there's some decent nominal falls that need to take place over the next couple of years though.
28. alan_540 said...
I agree with that, thanks for posting your graph, it certainly shows all three indices are pretty much in agreement.
29. estrader said...
@ smugdog - "Most have no intention of selling"
How do you know this? Price rises *and* price falls will spur people into action. I don't know what the intention is of those in my area but I haven't gone knocking door to door to find out...is this what you did?
I think most people in Southern England have no intention of buying.