Monday, Sep 20, 2010
And the bad news just keeps coming
Telegraph: UK mortgage lending slides to 10-year low
UK mortgage lending fell to a 10-year low of £11.4bn in August, further reinforcing fears that the recovery in the housing market is fading.
Posted by mark @ 11:28 AM (2039 views) Add Comment
15 Comments
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1. ontheotherhand said...
Looking at the CML commentary, their tactic is pretending that they saw this coming and so it is not really news.
"The second half of 2010 was always going to be challenging...It is no real surprise that the tone of some of the recent economic data and commentary has been rather downbeat"
Hmmm. Not surprising? Really? 5 months ago in April they said, "the outlook is for a gradual improvement later in the year", in March they said, "It is difficult to pick out underlying trends in the housing and mortgage markets at the moment", and in January they confidently made predictions, "The start of the New Year brings some reason for optimism. 2010 will almost certainly be a better year than 2009."
2. mark wadsworth said...
"fears"???? "hopes" more like :-)
3. Peter said...
So where's the bad news? :-)
4. hpwatcher said...
Looking at the CML commentary, their tactic is pretending that they saw this coming and so it is not really news.
The CML are absolute buIIsh*tters - always have been.
5. braindeed said...
RE ontheotherhand @1
There are loads of commentators that would love that sort of research - it would make any CML rep very nervous under interview conditions..lovely
6. quiet guy said...
Assuming this trend continues, we will end up in a situation where house prices are substantially cheaper but getting a mortgage to take advantage of that will be very hard unless you have loads of cash and a spotless credit history.
7. Frosti2k2 said...
good, surely thats how mortgages should be ?
8. str 2007 said...
Ontheotherhand
Observations such as yours above is why I love this site.
It's all in the detail.
9. braindeed said...
Re Quiet Guy @5...
"...... but getting a mortgage to take advantage of that will be very hard unless you have loads of cash and a spotless credit history."
....that's the historical norm, unfortunately - you can't have loose credit and stable prices.....we've got to decide which is better. In my day, there was a face to face with the Branch Manager
10. drewster said...
ontheotherhand,
Nice find, thanks!
11. peter said...
Given unlimited money printing - oops sorry QE! - there is no reason why the average house price shouldn't eventually be £10m or £100m.
The fact that the economy would have been devastated in the process completely escapes the 'experts' at the CML.
In their crazed world rising house prices = good news; falling prices = bad news. No exceptions. Pay them no heed.
12. Crunchy said...
11. peter
A wheelbarrow or a cashless chipped society?
I can assure you whichever one you pick, that isn't going to happen.
This boom and bust marks an end of an era. There will be much more efficient ways to transfer wealth in the future.
DOMINATION.
13. quiet guy said...
@Frosti2k2 & braindeed
Agreed. Bringing back responsible lending is necessary and desirable.
The reason I brought this up is that I'm wondering just how bad mortgage rationing could get when house prices fall. You already need about 25% to get the best deals. Just as bankers went stupid and loaned in excess of 100% LTV during the height of the boom, will they overreact on the way down and make getting a mortgage very difficult?
14. braindeed said...
quiet guy@12 said...
" will they overreact on the way down and make getting a mortgage very difficult?"
Guaranteed
15. Lal said...
There is obviously a delayed reaction in the housing market in regards to lending and the affect on people and the price they put their properties on the market for. If these figures are correct and the lending is at a 10 year low.... then how can the market remain level? We should see a significant decline over the Christmas period - coupled with the lay off's that are occuring in the public sector we should see a signficant reversal in the market... and this could be the spark that starts the big down turn.