Monday, Aug 23, 2010
Ouch.
This is Money: Interest rates may reach 8% by 2012
Leading economic think-tank believes interest rates will need to rise to 8% by 2012 to curb runaway inflation.
Average mortgage payments will rise by £900 a month.
Posted by will @ 11:06 AM (3137 views) Add Comment
34 Comments
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1. mark said...
cool roll on 2012
2. mark said...
cool roll on 2012
3. Peter said...
Seems a bit far fetched for only just over a year away, but I remember the 80's with 15% so who knows!!! Wonder if I'll get 8% on my savings which are making little at the moment.....
4. Wageslavex14 said...
I can't believe how widely this story has been repeated. Interest rates may also reach 1% or 25%. The point is that nobody knows, and Policy Exchange don't know any better than anyone else.
5. Daveats said...
Bring it n the earlier the better
6. smugdog said...
We near the autumn, yet predictions of rate rises for 2010, on this site, have failed to materialize.
Why?
Wishful thinking me thinks.
7. Crunchy said...
Problem. Reaction. Solution.
More blackmail lies ahead.
One world currency? Cashlless society? RFIDs? The magical cure that desperate hungry home loving people will embrace?
Tell me, who or what built the great pyramids? When, how and why? Untill then, all options are on the table of possibilties.
8. will said...
smug @ 3.
Question; Why are interest rates still at a 200 year low?
9. inbreda said...
will - I thought interest rates were at a 350 year low? And teh only reason it was 350 years and not more was because the Bank of England has only been about for 350 years?
Strange times, and personally wouldn't be surprised to see a strange future materialise where interest rates are 80%, much less 8%.
10. smugdog said...
@4
Because of government manipulation, in order to maintain the illusion
and prevent a total collapse. It's not fair but you've got to roll with it.
11. str 2007 said...
This is I think the 3rd time this story has popped up, I even saw it this morning on the BBC News App for I phone, which means the general public will have got hold of it.
Personally I struggle to see this happening , not because of economic fundamentals, but because of Bank of England reesponse to date.
They clearly want to avoid any type of crash and clearly this would crash everything in a very big way.
It seems strange that in an international age you can't move your savings around from country to country to benefit from better interest rates (I think Australia is 4-5% presently). But the fact you can't means there is some sort of international agreement going on to stop the UK for example being completely drained of all deposits.
No, a nice thought but seeing actions to date I'm afraid I simply don't believe this story.
Further if this did happen in 2 years, it would see the country at the point of absolute depression for the the next election.
My personal prediction is 1/8 point interest rate increases every other month for the next 3-4 years or so getting upto a 3-4% base rates very slowly.
12. symo said...
I think that we could possibly be looking at double that 8%. Purely as UK debt will be worthless.
13. str 2007 said...
Symo
I disagree, despite all I think the UK is still respected internationally.
People will still buy are debt at much lower levels.
And this is assuming things go down the traditional route for raising finance and some other wheeze isn't invented for keeping the balls in the air.
8% interest rates would collapse the economy and they just won't do it, other than very very slowly over a long (10 years +) period of time. IMO.
14. general congreve said...
Whatever happens it's all going to go off with a bang sooner or later, then it's gold rush time, yeehaaw!!!
15. bleakhouse said...
I'm a double dipper, so I'm thinking remaining low for an extended period of time. Historically they have remained low for an over extended period time. Is it going to be different this time?
16. uncle tom said...
There is a risk this will happen, but the outlook is too opaque to be certain. A good argument is made that further QE might have this result.
My hope is that a second dip to the recession will not persuade the BoE to indulge risky remedies, but to accept it as inevitable, and sit it out.
A small increase in bank rate would be prudent at this point, as a defensive measure.
17. str 2007 said...
Was the last QE a BoE or Government measure ? or Both ?
IE did the upcoming election influence it's use ?
18. uncle tom said...
"Was the last QE a BoE or Government measure ? or Both ?"
Mostly BoE, I think, taking their lead from the Fed; but there is no doubting the reckless and desperate attempts by the last govt. to get re-elected, regardless of the long term costs to the economy - they certainly weren't urging Merv to show restraint..!
19. bellwether said...
Inflation cannot happen without wage increases consistently outstripping CPI, and thereby creating some sort of monetary expansion spiral.
Private sector wages over last 12 months ran at something like 1.3%, less than half of CPI, add to that the 1 million + additional unemployed over past couple of years, and there seems to be little scope for the creation of meaningful inflation there - ignore price increases due to our weakening currency, which is a situation which has probably stablised in any event. The private sector is now being cut, so again I'd suggest limited scope for inflation to get a foot hold. The thought that the banks being recapitalised will lead to inflation, seems bogus, loans have to be repaid, and post 2008 banks will tend to only lend money where there the creditor offers some prospect of repayment.
20. another alan said...
That this highly speculative piece has got so much coverage is the main story... the utterings of a think tank given so much publicity...
21. mark wadsworth said...
It's all hokum. The most likely course of events is low interest rates for several years.
I mean, if interest rates were 8% I would be jumping for joy, but I'd rather not to wishful thinking.
22. Righttoleech said...
interest rate>RPI would do fine.
23. righttoleech said...
interest rate>RPI would do fine
24. uncle tom said...
MW,
You're nailing your colours to the mast a bit..
..I don't think the status quo is at all stable - there's too much money struggling to find a home, and treasury and gilt yields have become unnaturally low.
My instincts tell me there's an upset looming, although I'm not quite sure what will give first or when it will kick off..
25. Jace said...
If there are less savers for the banks to exploit then the banks will have to go else where for the money they need to lend on, anyone other than the savers is going to expect to make money from lending to the banks.... might cause a surge in savers rates.. hopefully
26. mark wadsworth said...
UT, like I said, I think it'd be great if (real) interest rates went up, but the government is unlikely to allow that to happen. Anyways, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.
27. uncle tom said...
"but the government is unlikely to allow that to happen"
Sometimes, governments are left without a choice..
28. bellwether said...
UT I'd suggest there is nothing unaturally low about treasury/gilt yields in the current environment. There is also seems to no money struggling to find a home given the current yeilds, with plenty more issuance on the horizon.
There also seems to be no obvious driver to interest rates rising. Certainly there is no real inflation in the system as per my previous point, which has to be relevant in any discussion of rising interest rates.
29. uncle tom said...
bellwether,
The paradox is such low yields against such high issuance, which points to excessive money creation...
..whilst the BoE appears to be transparent about its QE program, other central banks are probably playing games - and not just the Fed..
The price of tangible assets, such as oil, could take off if confidence in cash collapses; driving up inflation and interest rates in the process.
30. brickormortis said...
No f**king way. Sorry guys!
31. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...
A couple of interesting points about this and the mainstream coverage it has received.
a) If people believe this it will supress trade (especially in houses) even more so in the future.
Ultimately prices might be stable but trade dramatically reduced.
b) By preparing people for this, it will look good if the Goverement can say that despite all the predictions
they managed to keep infaltion under 5%
32. bellwether said...
Uncle Tom, if you can be bothered take a look at this article, which argues that most of what we think of re QE is just wrong. It is interesting stuff and in terms of conent better than many of the articles that tend to get recycled here
http://pragcap.com/the-myth-of-the-great-bond-bubble
33. Fakiee said...
Is this some kind of PR stunt? The sheep are already a bit wobbly what with a possible double dip and the housing market looking gloomy, then bang out of nowhere 8% interest - now a post pops of with 30% WTF?
This just sounds like manipulation to me (and yes I've just finished making myself a triple prong tin foil hat).
34. uncle tom said...
Bellwether,
- that article link is classic tripe - eloquent language from someone who not only doesn't understand the markets, but doesn't know that he doesn't understand..!
Investment bubbles are entirely rational elements of the market - vehicles that enable those who understand, to fleece those who think they understand..
..but don't!