2. techieman said...

wouldnt go that far rumble...

"If we define a crash as a 15% decline, of the previous 27 confirmed Hindenburg Omen signals, eight (29.7 percent) were followed by financial system threatening, life-as-we-know-it threatening stock market crashes. Three (11.1 percent) more were followed by stock market selling panics (10% to 14.9% declines). Four more (14.8 percent) resulted in sharp declines (8% to 9.9% drops). Six (22.2 percent) were followed by meaningful declines (5% to 7.9%), four (14.8 percent) saw mild declines (2.0% to 4.9%), and two (7.4 percent) were failures, with subsequent declines of 2.0% or less. Put another way, there is a 30 percent probability that a stock market crash -- the big one -- will occur after we get a confirmed (more than one in a cluster) Hindenburg Omen. There is a 40.8 percent probability that at least a panic sell-off will occur. There is a 55.6 percent probability that a sharp decline greater than 8.0 % will occur, and there is a 77.8 percent probability that a stock market decline of at least 5 percent will occur. Only one out of roughly 13 times will this signal fail.

All the biggies over the past 25 years were preceded and identified by this signal (as defined with our five conditions). It was on the clock just before the stock market crash of the autumn of 2008. It was present and accounted for a few weeks before the stock market crash of 1987, was there three trading days before the mini crash panic of October 1989, showed up at the start of the 1990 recession, warned about trouble a few weeks prior to the L.T.C.M and Asian crises of 1998, announced that all was not right with the world after Y2K, telling us early 2000 was going to see a precipitous decline. The Hindenburg Omen gave us a three month heads-up on 9/11 (2001), and told us we would see panic selling into an October 2002 low, warned in October 2007 that a multi-month 16 percent plunge was about to start, from the DJIA's all-time high. And it was on the clock three months before the stock market crash of the autumn 2008 into spring 2009 that wiped out 47.3 percent of the stock market's value. Our subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com were informed immediately as these signals were generated. This latest unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen August 12th, 2010 has thirty-six days to find a confirming partner observation."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22097.html

probably better than random, but not infallible

4. techieman said...

:). yes i think he actually means the market moves around then!

rumble look up arch crawford for a modern day nostradamus (you probably wont be surprised that i read alot of the quatrains when i was younger).

the point is you need a pair and then you can forget the rest. only 27 in the last 25 years, and 2 failures sounds pretty good odds to me.

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