Wednesday, Aug 25, 2010
Buyer of 230 properties describes Ze atonomy of a bubble chart
BBC 5 Live: 2 hrs of house price discussions
this is one part (part 5) of a seven parter. the first couple of parts are a "discussion" between jd an peter bolton estate agent. all the parts are at : http://www.youtube.com/user/EverymanNoSix#p/u.
this part is where dave - explains to stephen nolan that rather than being told what to do you should have used that thing between your ears. 1.45in.
i listened to the whole thing - lots of people telling stories of how well they did during the dcb. dave explains the dcb. will post the embedded you tube below. btw saw this on the forum.
aired aug 10th.
Posted by techieman @ 04:42 PM (2415 views) Add Comment
19 Comments
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1. techieman said...
2. jack c said...
Good post (IMO) techie as I missed this broadcast - it will be interesting to see if the market has reached a turning point and we then move down to the fear and capitulation stages (enter Smugdog stage left with his predictable ridicule of the bubble theory/graph).
Hope you are on the road to recovery
3. techieman said...
jack thanks for the good wishes. i actually thought "dave" might be your alias!!!
4. jack c said...
@techieman - I think "Dave" is spot on with his analysis and I could not have got the point across better myself................
5. Sarah said...
I'd put that bear trap at around 1992-95.
6. titaniccaptain said...
My partner in crime over at you know where has been asked to go Radio five.....I think its on the subject of the property boom!!!!.....
You been ill Techie?
7. jack c said...
titaniccaptain - I hope your man is gonna tell them boom and bust is back on the agenda.
As regards TM check out www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2010/08/blog-government-preparing-for-the-next-round-of-bailouts-29916.php
8. titaniccaptain said...
@Jack C
Thanks for the illumination regarding techie.....I had a similar injury except mine was caused by excessive masturbation in a farmyard.....how was I to know you cant milk a bull...lol :-)
9. jack c said...
titaniccaptain - why dont you go on R5 Live rather than renting2, it will be much more fun !!
10. p. doff said...
Hey Titanic, I suppose you know the Welsh invented the condom in 1872 using a sheeps intestine.
The English improved the technique in 1875 by first removing the intestine from the sheep!!!!
11. titaniccaptain said...
@Jack C
Renting 2 has a brain!
@P.Doff
Eye!!!! We sh@g em...then you eat them!!!!
12. debtfree said...
Good post TM, cheers.
The guy bought 230 properties 10 years ago, ain't stupid is he !
13. str 2007 said...
Sorry to hear you're out of typing action techieman.
Hope you can still buy and sell ok.
Thanks for the link - wish that bloke could explain it all on a mainstream TV programme.
He actually has credibility to the house buying public because he has owned so many.
TC
Can you kindly keep your farming activities to yourself - you've put me off my chicken soup. LOL
14. Northamptonbear said...
That was superb. Who was the Irish idiot getting in the way?
15. d'oh said...
Dave is brilliant. Reckons he must read this site. If he is real and bought 200+ properties at the bottom and made a killing over the past decade then good on him.
16. techieman said...
TC - think i will have to pass on the lamb curry from now on.
str2007 - yes i can still click "buy" and "sell" - infact i paid 5075 yesterday for some ftse shorts i had. see that as a jobbing profit - i.e have aready resold some this am and will prob sell some more if it gets higher over the next few days (which it hopefully will).
yesterday i also paid 1040 for some of the s&p shorts i had. both s&p and ftse were oversold and at the bottom of their trend channels. again this is to resell higher up, i.e a jobbing trade but to then maintain the overall short position.
what interested me about the whole show was that remember this was the first time the rics went negative for 2 years and yet people seem to sense there are problems afoot.
SO THE CHART ABOVE DOES LOOK CORRECT.
as for the dcb - i have to say that i wasnt aware of this bubble chart myself before the prediction of the dcb on here, so my analysis was based on stock markets and correlation to other asset classes. particularly res property.
nolans complaints that we was told innit does make me smile - he says we were told that things would go up ad infinitum - well yes that is the definition of a bubble. he says he dropped 200k on property.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/stephen-nolan-i-lost-pound200000-in-house-sale-14128595.html
17. str 2007 said...
techieman
I was on holiday last week so missed someof the action.
I'm keeping an eye out for somewhere to get back in short, inbetween work and days out with the kids.
I said on a link elsewhere that I got the line 'still waiting for the market to crash - ho ho ho ' at a weekend social gathering.
They (the people that went quiet when I was proved right in 2007) have been very churpy of late (and to be fair it has been booming down here). But they haven't been watching the market or news and I think they're going to have to go quiet again shortly.
Lets hope the chart is right and that the government ammo has run out.
18. Fubared said...
Caller number 1 - so your house is 'worth more' is it? - estate agent tell you that did they? Have you actually sold it? - no, you're just going off someone who has a vested interest.
Caller number 2 - markets are a reflection of sentiment are they? - rubbish, if that were the case then being confident would keep bubbles lasting forever. What happens is the price outstrips the ability of FTB's to purchase and without new market entrants, you can't have a sustainable market.
At least caller 2 recognises that estate agents wil tell you what you want to hear, not actually the truth.
19. Fubared said...
"15. d'oh said...
Dave is brilliant. Reckons he must read this site. If he is real and bought 200+ properties at the bottom and made a killing over the past decade then good on him."
Yeah - if I had a fiver for everytime I heard someone claim they bought at the bottom and made a kiling then I would have 2000 properties by now!
However he is right in most of what he says, but if he really believed what he said then when he did his 'weeding' he would have got rid of everything - because even 'good properties' will decline eventually. No jobs, no tennants, empty property, vandalism = increased costs for landlord with no income. Even if you're debt free this will take it's toll.