Thursday, Jul 29, 2010
Down 0.5% in July YOY +6.6%
BBC: House price inflation eases again, says Nationwide
Rather than blaming the World Cup I will blame those dastardly house builders for threatening to build some more.
One more month of this and the Property Tycoons will be having to dip into their pockets to fund their houses.
Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 07:16 AM (2351 views) Add Comment
15 Comments
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1. paul said...
'Eases'? Oh they mean 'Falls'.
2. str 2007 said...
Paul
I used to think you were a bit paranoid about the beeb but that headline in priceless.
Let's hope this isn't a one off. It'll be the NW first reported fall in about 4 months.
Seems to be plenty of pricefall headlines about at the moment
3. alan said...
Last month the Nationwide said "prices inched up" by 0.1%. That has now been downgraded to 0.0% in todays numbers.
I guess I'm paranoid about wordings too!
4. sibley's love child said...
*Wrings hands*
Excellent.
5. uncle tom said...
Graph watchers might like to compare the price of gold from 1970 with the price of houses over a wider timeline starting at 1980..
..i'd say we're at the start of the second dip - approaching 1981 on this graph
http://encikwan.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/gold-price-inflation-adjusted-2009.jpg
(Think of one year of gold comparing to three years of houses)
6. mrflibble said...
Looks like the second top (return to normal) has now played out. It should be all downhill from here if the infamous life-cycle of a bubble is being followed. It certainly looks that way.
7. greenmind said...
Half percent monthly fall - thats more like it! More please!
8. wdbeast said...
Alan@3 - I agree with your sentiments entirely.
The restatement of last month’s figures to level just means that they “borrowed” 0.1% from this month’s figures to allow them to post a positive number. This allowed for much more positive headlines such as “Inched up” rather than “flat”.
All standard stuff from the spinners who do the stats.
It does however mean that this month’s actual figure is -0.6% (always supposing they haven’t “borrowed” anything from next month).
9. hpwatcher said...
I can already see the people at the BOE talking about another round of QE to support the UKs ''national product'' - housing.
10. uncle tom said...
wdbeast,
To be fair, if they wanted to play games with the numbers, they would never have admitted to a re-statement at all.
That little bit of mea culpa tells me they are probably trying to be as honest as possible; and I'm not sure the Nationwide has anything to gain from trying to ramp the market at the moment.
If I were running that company, I would be worried about a market collapse, but would be even more worried about a return to wild speculation. Letting nature take its course would be the prudent view.
11. inbreda said...
"8. wdbeast said...Alan@3 - It does however mean that this month’s actual figure is -0.6% (always supposing they haven’t “borrowed” anything from next month)"
seasonally adjusted it is probably -2.5%!!!
12. wdbeast said...
Uncle tom- you have a generous nature, you put cynics like me to shame.
I have spent many years manipulating data for publication of listed retail companies and I always imagine others to fudge the numbers as I have been instructed to.
Inbreda – good point, the great LFL debate, just as in retail figures.
13. techieman said...
Actually who cares if they are right or wrong really. They are a reflection of peoples actions not vice versa. I don’t know why people (on here) get so upset by any spin put on these figures of by the media.
If I don’t have my 25% deposit for a house I aint gonna buy one.
I don’t buy into this people looking at the figures and then deciding. If that were right then how did we have the DCB before?
14. alan said...
Yes Techieman,
I agree. I just thought I'd point out the change. I've spent a lot of time re-arranging depreciation policies and the like so that the accounting numbers came out "a tiny bit higher than expectations". That's what the market likes....
You said it before me ...what will bring house prices down quickly is a substantial rise in interest rates or a rise in unemployment. Nationwide's index is just a measure, after all.
15. wdbeast said...
Alan, agreed - We obviously share the same guilt complex, but after all it is the general sentiment that counts.
The media are now starting to to be far more bearish about house prices, it will be interesting to see how these numbers from Nationwide are reported in the press tomorrow.