Thursday, Jun 10, 2010
Not so rosey
Bloomberg: IMF Says Risks to Economy Have Risen ‘Significantly’
Risks to the global economic outlook have “risen significantly” and policy makers have limited room to provide support to growth
Posted by rumble @ 12:42 AM (536 views) Add Comment
5 Comments
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1. paul said...
Oh so the downside risks to the economy are significant so ... interest rates won't rise today to combat the inflationary threat identified two weeks ago.
Business as usual then - Cameron and King's warnings about inflation not being the answer are just water under the bridge.
Back on course for financial ruin then.
2. estrader said...
Such bad news....and there is the ES @ 1061-1063 level...again...
3. techieman said...
Hi estrader... hope you were on the right side or square of the flash crash. Whatd'ya reckon now?
4. estrader said...
Hi Techie, I was out of the market on the day because I missed my chance to short. I was on the phone to a friend finalising plans for her visit watching it all take place on my screen. It was very exciting. Where to now? That 1061-1063 level seems to be like an impenetrable floor (and I don’t mean by 20 points). I’ve noticed time and again that the world is falling apart whenever the market reaches this level but doesn’t move very far below it. It makes me think of something I read in another news article on this site about the 1930’s depression.
“but the strength in stocks was generally ascribed to the more aggressive activity of professional interests committed to the advance.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/clips-from-great-depression-2010-6#march-25-1930-more-green-shoots-17
My opinion is that if the market breaks significantly below this level [1061-1063] and stays below it (doesn’t retrace above it for more than 1 or 2 weeks at least) then I will be (almost) convinced the bear market will continue. If not, then these 100 point rallies and reactions we are seeing are nothing more than a shaking out of the weak hands and the public and the market will continue to advance. Imagine what you could do if you had an (almost) infinite supply of practically free money from the Federal Reserve. My gut feeling is that no matter how bad things get this market won’t be allowed to collapse. Who would want a $700 Billion egg on their face?
But this is all just my opinion. I trade the market in an effort to make money, not to support my conspiracy theories ;)
You be careful around the 1061-1063 level...don’t be in a rush to go long or short there! :)
5. techieman said...
Hi Estrader. Glad to see you were unscathed. "Luckily" I was short going into it but sat is shock and awe and didnt liquidate. However i did do a live trade - while on a thread here (which made some - otherwise i would have looked a bit of a chump!). Havent done a short term trade for a while, but that just looked too good to be true.
Anyway kept the shorts and liquidated after we breached the flash crash low. As you know i was looking to short alot of the way up and had some pain to the top. I actually sold some more and i suppose was lucky my stop wasnt hit @ 1250.
Yes at the moment a bit of volatility and range trading. To be honest i was looking for a quick dowside break of 1040 but paid 1044 for a fair bit, and re-shorted. On those i am suffering a little, although effectively im just jobbing round a short. I do think we will crack 1040 in earnest but not yet. The FTSE interests me, as it looked due for a bounce, again before the bear reinstates. BUT - and its a big but, i think i will be looking, like you for some confirmation, before adding to a reasonable sized short position.
It didnt give you much of a chance to get short, and would have been very easy to get sucked. I thought that would be the case. Anyway
Good Luck!!