Wednesday, Jun 30, 2010
+0.1% MoM +8.7% YoY
Nationwide: June Index
"Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:"
“Provided the economy does not suffer a relapse into
recession, the net impact of the Budget on the
housing market and house prices should be relatively
neutral. This is consistent with the relative stability
seen in the housing market during the last major
fiscal consolidation in the mid-1990s.”
In your dreams mate.
Posted by phdinbubbles @ 07:09 AM (1741 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. phdinbubbles said...
Sorry, that should say June Index. Annual rate falling from 9.8% to 8.7% which of course the BBC try their best to ignore and go with 'House prices rise again in June'
2. mrflibble said...
So the average house now costs £170,000, congratulations, give yourselves a pat on the back.
I'm sticking with my call of this being the peak of the second top in a double top formation. Since the government can no longer prop this charade up then it's now game over.
“Buckle your seatbelt Dorothy, ‘cause Kansas is going bye-bye!”
3. mystie010 said...
I think that the figures are probably right. Where I am people are putting their houses on at stupidly inflated prices. However after about two months they are dropping them by around £5000-£10,000. I am also seeing a very large amount of £350+k properties coming onto the market which I think would skew the figures. I count the number of properties on the books of each agent (very sad I know) and I have monitored this for a while. What I am pleased to report is that our local agents have more properties on their books now than at the point of the last so called crash in 2008 and to be frank they are just not selling at all. Devon is also a very desirable area for second home owners but the market is not moving. I am now just starting to become quietly optimistic.
4. techieman said...
i dont want to be picky Mr F - but i assume you dont really mean "double top formation", in terms of classical TA.... or have i missed something? You probably mean a stair step channel with a secondary retracement recent top lower than the all time high?
5. mrflibble said...
@4. techieman...
Cheers for pointing that out. Although there is much talk of 2007 asking prices the overall selling prices are not quite at the 2007 peak. So with a second top lower than the first I assume we will track the Lifecycle of a Bubble quite accurately? This seems to indicate a lower second top. I guess we need confirmation of a second top before the champagne is popped but it feels like it is here to me. I'm not too bad with calling tops it's bottoms I'm lousy with...
recapture - wine await
6. mark wadsworth said...
I'm a bit disappointed with our second quarter performance.
Up to now, the quarterly inflation adjusted price changes in the post 2007 price crash had tracked those in the post 1989 price crash very closely, but this quarter we're up over a per cent and in the corresponding quarter last time we were down one per cent. Updated chart here. The previous two quarters were slightly wrong as well.
@ Techie, what you mean is a head and shoulders without a left shoulder?
7. Notyethomeless said...
I wasn't going to post, but the recaptcha made me do it...
"populist incumbent"!!
So now prices will stay flat for the rest of this year, then edge up at a few percent a year over the next 4 or 5 years, before taking off again around 2014/2015. Based on memory, that's what various commentators and experts have been suggesting. We wait, and hope.
8. greenmind said...
Was there an election in 1990? If not, that might explain part of the difference.
9. 51ck-6-51x said...
MW - Q.E.
10. mark wadsworth said...
@ Greenmind, there was an election in May 1992 (i.e. in quarter number 14) exactly the same as in May 2010 (quarter 14).
@ 666, nope. QE was a cunning way of borrowing money from the banks, not lending them it. The big difference this time was the £300-billion-plus special liquidity scheme, capital injection, taxpayer guarantees etc.
11. techieman said...
"Techie, what you mean is a head and shoulders without a left shoulder?" Well you could put it that way Mark :-).
"guess we need confirmation of a second top before the champagne is popped but it feels like it is here to me" the true confirmation is when the prior low (i.e. before the DCB - assuming thats what it is!) is breached. Personally though i think you need the turn around to demonstrate some momentum. That can be obtained from 2 consecutive months of "reasonably sized" declines. Once that happens put the shampoo on ice, but only open it when we have breached the prior lows… IMO.