Tuesday, Jun 15, 2010
Grant Shapps talks sense - shock (even though his 'remedies' will do nothing to help)
Guardian - Comment Is Free: Our homemade fertility crisis
... the fact that there are more IVF twins in Britain today actually turns out to have something to do with housing. The charity Shelter has released a fascinating piece of research this week that reveals that higher housing costs are forcing couples to delay starting a family. Britain's acute housing shortage means that the average age of a first-time buyer without financial help from family or friends is now 37 years old, up from 33 in 2005 and just 29 in 1997. And this postponement of settling down is having a knock-on effect in delaying the point at which women, on average, are trying to start a family.
Posted by mark wadsworth @ 01:44 PM (1708 views) Add Comment
15 Comments
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1. matt_the_hat said...
Less slaves for the boomers - we will need more slave ships from poland again soon.
2. matt_the_hat said...
The problem with boomers is this -
You offer to take a friend out for a fish & chips then you expect a 3 course meal in a Michelin star restaurant in return. Sorry Mr g doesn't work like that.
3. mark wadsworth said...
What's striking about those FTB ages is this:
1997 - average FTB age 29 = average year of birth 1966
Twelve years later:
2009 - average FTB age 37 = average year of birth 1972 (six years later than 1966).
If we go on at this rate, we'll reach a stage where nobody born after the mid 1970s will be able to afford to (or wish to) buy.
4. Simon68 said...
"If we go on at this rate, we'll reach a stage where nobody born after the mid 1970s will be able to afford to (or wish to) buy"
Yeah, this is the plan. We will follow Japan to offer 100 year mortgage covering 3 generations, and those born after 1970s are still repaying their grand-pa's mortgage debts.
5. doom&gloom said...
You can blame the ingrained UK 'home ownership' culture. There's no shame to raising a family in rented acommodation in a country such as Germany.
6. mick rupert said...
Nice to see that article from back in January. Wonder if Grant Shapps really thought he'd actually be elected to do the job! Always interesting to see whether a politician complies with his pre-election commitment.
Anyway, apart from the HIPs and the CGT increase, he seems to be somewhat quiet on the subject of housing us all. Could it be he is quietly expecting a crash??
@Mark Wadsworth, you're not far off on the date there, mid-70s+ does seem to be the cutoff and is my demographic, except my lot seem to be roughly split into two... those who took on massive risk blindly and loving the ZIRP (a few BTL in that category too), and those who acted more cautiously as it seemed perfectly reasonable, if you thought it through and bothered to read up on economics or history, that we were (are) in a massive property bubble that cannot be sustained.
Still, the ongoing and seemingly unquestioned allegations about a shortage of property do disturb me. Is there really enough evidence to overturn this as being a VI myth?
Brilliant reCaptcha: cannot chortle :)
7. Cashrichassetpoor said...
@4.
Although there is no shame in raising a family in rented acommodation in the UK rentees have a lot less rights and a lot more expense than rentees in Germany.
8. mark wadsworth said...
@ MR, I'm one of the lucky (just about) pre-1966 cohort, so yah boo sucks to you young folks! You just want it all and you want it know now! When I were lad my take home pay was only five shillings a week (although admittedly I could pay off the mortgage with that) and we didn't even have colour telly etc.
As to "shortage" this is a complete and utter myth, it is just that housing is allocated very unevenly (widows in three-bed semis vs young couple in small flats, rather than the other way round). To my mind, either we allow more semi's to be built or the two groups swap places (I am indifferent as to which). The same sort of picture emerges with social housing.
The fun bit is this link which Rumble added to an earlier thread. Any "shortage" which there may or may not be will dissolve of its own accord, as there'll simply be far fewer people competing to buy (or indeed rent) whatever comes on the market.
reCaptcha: enough popcorn
9. uncle tom said...
There is a shortage of housing, but one that is not hard to solve.
MW's desire to force widows into tower blocks will never pass muster, and isn't necessary, either..
All that is needed is:
1) Effective control of immigration, to ensure no further population growth.
2) Punitive taxation of property that is unoccupied, including that held by govt depts and agencies.
2) Incentives to local government to ensure not only an adequate supply of new housing, but also to ensure that the mean floor area and plot size of new build is no smaller than the mean floor area and plot size of the existing stock.
Control of population would all but eliminate the growth in demand, while up to half a million empty properties might be freed up by a tax change.
A completion rate of 25,000 homes per month, over and above those constructed to replace properties that have been demolished; would be a sensible and manageable objective.
Taken together, these measures would ensure there no was no general shortage come the next election.
10. mark wadsworth said...
UT, I think it's a bit harsh accusing me of "forcing widows into tower blocks".
Firstly I pointed out that allowing more new builds would solve the problem most admirably.
Secondly, aren't the NIMBY's forcing young people to live in tower blocks? Why shouldn't the boot be on the other foot for a change?
When I am old and grey I would much rather everybody left each other in peace, I live where I want to live (provided I can afford it without sponging off the state) BUT AFAIAC young people are free to build their own houses. I have never, ever signed any petition complaining about potential planning or new construction and I give people short shrift if they ever ask me to sign such a thing.
11. tenant super said...
I was born in 1976 and bought in 2000. Theoretically, Mr TS and I could combine resources to buy a three bedroom semi in suburbia and still have low mortgages, partly thanks to us both making significant downpayments over the years, but I am unwilling to hand over that amount of cash to those evil widows even if I wanted to join the ranks of merry housewives.
12. nomad said...
"evil widows" :-(
Sense of perspective please tenant super.
13. tenant super said...
Sorry late to respond. Yes, that was a poor attempt at a joke!
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