Wednesday, Apr 28, 2010
May is gonna be a big month
Market Oracle: Greece Government Bond Market Panic Crash, Yields Hit 18%, Portugal Next?
It did not take too long for contagion to spread (one day), smack in the face of EU statements that contagion was no risk. Why the EU would put themselves in a position to look so foolish is beyond me.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:20 AM (1537 views) Add Comment
37 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Let’s look at the resonances with the Calleman model
The beginning of May (next week) resonates with:
Black Death (1347-1351)
Collapse of the Lombard Banking System in Europe (1348)
250,000 people killed in the worst single massacre of the Khmer Rouge period (Autumn 1978)
So what can we expect?
A massive crisis with the Euro-zone which will propel gold to $2,200 by 19 May according to the Armstrong model, or 2-3 June by other models
The Euro zone will survive though.
The rainy season is nearing its peak in Haiti with over 200mm expected in May. There are an estimated 2m people living in temporary shelters that will be hit by floods and disease.
Let’s hope that the colloidal silver manufacturers turn up with their wonder drug to treat the victims. If they do and the mainstream media turn up to film the carnage, they might just stumble on a story they hadn’t bargained for.
If colloidal silver “goes public” then expect silver to hit $200 by 19 May or 2-3 June.
Gold stocks mainstream mania won’t peak until 2-3 of June. As per usual the small guy gets wacked as June is a terrible month for precious metals.
2. uncle tom said...
s2r1,
I've lost count of the number of the number of 'resonance' predictions you've made, but surely you must have noticed by now that not only is their no rational reason why they should work, but also that they don't work..
Market players are always very myopic - they lack street wisdom, and most should get out more.. - they look one step ahead, and not two..
..take the market reaction to the Greece/Portugal sovereign issue. To me it comes as absolutely no surprise, and in my own mind was priced in ages ago, so there should not have been any adverse reaction in the markets.
If you want to dabble with economic prediction, ditch the voodoo models that have no rational base, and focus simply on contemplating the day after tomorrow from a rational and logical perspective..
3. sold 2 rent 1 said...
UT,
You don’t understand the models.
The whole process of “believing in them” is a process of evolution of global consciousness.
The models do just enough to convince a small number of people, but mainly keep the majority of people unconvinced. This process continues, gathering a few more supporters each week/month.
The “tipping point” happens at the event horizon (of the consciousness singularity) which is when 95-99% of the population will say “blimey, those guys were right”. But at that point in time all the models beak down and are irrelevant.
You have decided to be a member of the “unconvinced” brigade. That is fine. The question is, will you walk into the “event horizon” blind or will you awaken before the “event horizon” happens?
Whilst you have free will to decide which side you want to be on, the rate at which people can awaken is fixed and so you have to be pretty determined to get where you want to be.
Saying all that, it probably doesn’t matter whether you cross the “event horizon” blind or not. Everyone has different roles to play and it is what happens after the “event horizon” that is more important.
4. uncle tom said...
S2R1
You seem to be arguing that if enough people believe the theory, then that in itself will make it self-fulfilling.
Yes to a point.
However, those who look at the fundamentals will be able to anticipate the behaviour of the theorists; so if there are enough theorists to move the market, the fundamentalists will be able to profit at their expense..
5. sold 2 rent 1 said...
UT,
"However, those who look at the fundamentals will be able to anticipate the behaviour of the theorists; so if there are enough theorists to move the market, the fundamentalists will be able to profit at their expense.."
The theorists don't move the market. The mathematics of the universe moves the markets. A theorist may have a minor understanding of several models, but there are dozens of models of which the complexity of any one is way too much even for the most advanced theorist.
You missed the point though.
The point at which the models break down is the “end of fiat money” so there is no market after that point.
6. sold 2 rent 1 said...
UT,
You need to link what I am saying to Stephen Hawkin's "black hole" singularity to grasp what I am saying here.
7. titaniccaptain said...
@S2R1 I am not sure about colloidal silver.
It could be you in a few years time!
And why are you not on all fours worshipping me for my seminal date prediction??????? OK I was a day out but in theory I wasn't because it was still the 26th on Easter Island.....not bad considering the date matched up with gold's highest point to date.
You need to tear up the Mayan Calender and get the South Wales Valley's Calender......I will be doing some Videos on the Valley's Calender and its prophetic powers very shortly.
I discovered it at the back of my mother's throat whilst checking for subsidence. My mother exhaled and out flew the sacred calender that looked very much like phlegm but with mystical bits in and what looked like dates started to appear before my very eyes.
Three days later mother sneezed and out came the decryption codes which looked like snot but I was not so easily fooled as to dismiss this sacred information as a simple sneeze......
As I spent days tirelessly deciphering the hidden dates it came to my attention that I had in fact become the chosen one and that I must kneel down and gaze into a rabbit's ear as to learn my new name as a prophet.
The Rabbit's ear spoke to me.
My new name and title is Egwahnoodlufffharhrh the Unpronounceable.
8. tudorian said...
@all
I'm no theorist, follower of models or technical analyst. I am a UK resident and home renter.
I have a prediction ............ I've come to this opinion from observing the world around me, the situation that friends, family and colleagues find themselves in. Its a fairly simple simple prediction, and as yet I have heard any arguments that convince me that I may be incorrect.
Here it is .......
I predict that the economic maelstrom in UK and Europe will intensify, more jobs, both public sector and private sector will be lost and that house prices have a long long way yet to fall
9. cat and canary said...
isn't Egwahnoodlufffharhrh an icelandic volcano?
10. tudorian said...
@ C&C
second time I've lol'ed at my desk today
11. sold 2 rent 1 said...
TC,
You do know you are out of control - LOL
Regarding your 26 April prediction – sorry no cigar.
You didn't even give an indication of what it would be. Big deal that Greece got downgraded to junk status and gold leapt $20 to $1170. You seemed to indicate the event would be more spiritual and global. It wasn’t.
Gold didn’t hit its “highest point to date” as you say. It was at $1225 last December
To stop any old Tom, Dick or Harry making random predictions, here are some rules for any predictions made this site:
Any prediction must include a reasonably tight date range
Any prediction must have a description of what is likely to happen
Any prediction must come with a named source. No anonymous prophets please!!!
12. denzil said...
Oh my lordy.
It's the first time I've visited here in many months having become very frustrated over the blinkered view of many bloggers to accept anything they didn't agree with as a lie. What I didn't expect (I should have known better) was S2R1 banging on about the resonance of current events with the Calleman model and correlation with events in history. It's reassuring that some things never change. Must dash, need to top up the motor with dark energy so I can escape the HAARP pulses.
Rgds
Denzil
13. sold 2 rent 1 said...
As for collioidal silver. Here is the response to the blue man video.
14. titaniccaptain said...
@S2R1..........out of control? this is me restrained like Hannibal Lecter on a day trip to Bristol Zoo.
"Any prediction must include a reasonably tight date range"..........................cough lol rofl rofl rofl coming from the Archdruid of inacurate predictions? lolololol.
"Any prediction must have a description of what is likely to happen"...........................I did.....I said it would be a seminal date on a thread about Gold then the date mentioned gives a huge rise in the price in Gold to its highest level.....also the news of the finding of Noah's ark and the potential beginning of the collapse of the bond markets.....put two and two together.
"Any prediction must come with a named source. No anonymous prophets please!!!"...........OK the prediction came from me.
Me thinks you have a dose of prediction envy!!!!
Sorry S2R1....love ya to bits.
Anyway have you thought about the health benefits of being dead?
Think about it you get no health problems at all. No irregular heart problems, no cancer, no shortness of breath and you don't have to worry about anything..
15. happy mondays said...
TC, The being dead bit, not sure if you have twigged it, but a slight flaw in your plan? nice idea though!
16. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Also on the Calleman model, we are nearing the date 12 August 1982; when the DJIA bottomed and the beginning of secular bull in stocks started - K-Wave Autumn (1982 - 2000)
12 August 1982 maps to 13 May 2010.
So we could have a low in general stocks around 13 May and see the solution spark a rush into precious metals.
It wouldn't surprise me if the general stock market continues up through the summer months to form a mighty bubble for a 90% crash this October
17. titaniccaptain said...
@S2R1
Remember these dates for me because I will forget them.....
June 14th
October 18th 26th and 28th.
18. letthemfall said...
There's certainly a huge black hole out there, and it's gradually sucking in all the reason in the Universe.
19. sold 2 rent 1 said...
TC,
No prediction envy here.
I missed the Noah's Ark story - that must be relevant somewhere in my models.
What tools did you use for your prediction?
20. titaniccaptain said...
God told me
21. letthemfall said...
titanic
Good heavens
22. titaniccaptain said...
Indeed letthemfall
23. sold 2 rent 1 said...
TC,
Dates.... but no description!!!
14 June
- The gold mania will be over by then so a big drop in gold/silver price could happen.
- We are into the football world cup too.
- I will be taking notice of the final season of Big Brother as it is no coincidence that this will start in Calleman's mapping to 1984 (George Orwell's novel). 1984 roughly maps to 8th-26th June 2010, and your date (14th) is in the middle of this. 1984 is the "end times" resonance year.
October 18th 26th and 28th.
October has already been scheduled in for a massive deflationary wave to hit with a corresponding stocks crash. Power will be transferred from West to East this month, with a global consciousness change.
Resonances are with:
1989 – 1992; Nikkei crashing and collapse of Soviet Union (Calleman)
1873-1879 – long depression in USA (Timewave zero)
1605 The Gunpowder Plot – (Calleman)
If you are looking for a low in stocks this month I am going for 8 October 2010
24. sold 2 rent 1 said...
TC,
"God told me"
So you've learnt to tap into a higher state of consciousness.
Well done.
Next time your there…. “GET BLOODY DESCRIPTIONS WITH THOSE DATES"
25. titaniccaptain said...
Gold is going to go nuts S2R1....if the the end is in June then so be it....BUT....it will go nuts....right off the chart.
And if I am wrong......ah well....what do you expect from a fat bass player?
26. sold 2 rent 1 said...
TC,
"Gold is going to go nuts S2R1....if the end is in June then so be it....BUT....it will go nuts....right off the chart."
You misunderstood my point about 1984. Calleman's model will resonate with Orwell’s 1984 in June, but the cycle we are in is not the final cycle.
The final cycle takes place in 2011 where we will see change that is 20 times faster than in the period 1999-2010
So June will only be a resonance of the “end times”, and the resonance will be so subtle that most people won’t even notice it. They will be too busy watching Big Brother or the World Cup (which I will be watching too.)
27. titaniccaptain said...
Did you know in the Bible it mentions gold being worthless in the end times?
28. titaniccaptain said...
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/goldgodmoney.htm
http://niv.scripturetext.com/ezekiel/7.htm
29. titaniccaptain said...
Sorry HPCers...............just us loonies talking the usual bol****s.
30. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Just noticed that GOLD and GOD are one letter apart.......uuuuuuuummmmmm........with the letter L being the difference.
Could L be for Lucifer?????
31. sold 2 rent 1 said...
TC,
"Did you know in the Bible it mentions gold being worthless in the end times?"
Yes. We had this conversation the other day. Refer back to 16 April Blog
32. titaniccaptain said...
I cannot respond to that question because I have discovered that you bring the idiot out in me S2R1....the rest of the time I am a normal respected upstanding member of my community.
Now leave me alone to drink my green tea and nurse my hangover.....and no I don't want any smurf juice to make me better lol.
33. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Fair enough.
BTW, if you are giving yourself 2-3 days either way with your October dates, then you can claim any event in late October as your prediction come true
More details please
34. Titaniccaptain said...
@S2R1
"if you are giving yourself 2-3 days either way with your October dates, then you can claim any event in late October as your prediction come true"..............yup :-)......great isn't it lol.
If I were to give too many details it would spoil all the fun.
Sorry if I sounded rude.
35. nomad said...
So what the hell should I do with my £85.68 savings?
36. titaniccaptain said...
S2R1.........there was a second part to that which I failed to send with the key.
Sorry if it came out sounding a bit harsh.......wasn't meant to....it sort of made sense with the second bit lol
37. enuii said...
Just read a times article on the proposed triple sized bailout for the Greeks (120Bn) of which 80Bn will come from other member states and was wondering whether we (the UK) will be chipping in. i.e. will we be borrowing more money to just give it to the Greeks and will the Portugese and Spanish also be potential recipients of further largesse?