Thursday, Apr 01, 2010
Daddy bear has your dinner
Telegraph: House prices to end 2010 lower
Capital Economics' Ed Stansfield tells Robert Miller that houses are still over-valued and prices will fall further in 2010. "More over-valued now than at the peak of the 1980's boom" Yummy yummy bear food.
Posted by tpbeta @ 06:37 PM (1780 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. cyril said...
Not immediately relevant to this article maybe, but I went to a Lib Dem meeting light night and Vince Cable had a slot - he was 10x more bearish in the flesh than he is on the telly - the audience seemed stunned into silence at the level of doom & gloom. Obviously too scary for the general viewer.
2. str 2007 said...
Well don't keep us in suspence cyril, what did he say ?
3. greenshootsandleaves said...
While Cyril is pondering what I am sure will be a *nice* reply, I'd like to draw attention to the recent spate of (1)properties that manage to 'sell' (STC) several times over; (2)frenzied rewording of the descriptions; oh and yes, (3)asking prices drifting down. Methinks the DT may well be right for once.
4. cyril said...
@2 Vince was just making fairly obvious points that everyone on HPC knows already, but most normal people seem to have forgotten. Basically he reminded people that have been lulled into a false sense of security because of massive govt borrowing, low IRs, QE etc. but we are in for a rude awakening because (a) the eye-watering amount of public debt needs to be paid back and (b) the productive base of the economy has been shot to bits over the last few decades. Nothing to worry about there then.
5. doomwatch said...
Even a broken watch is right twice a day. Ed is just turning into a broken record. Yawn.
6. str 2007 said...
greenshoots
Yes I noticed a tag on rightmove for a house down here 'reserved' which is a first for a secondhand house. This was the second 'offer ' on the house which had preiously fallen through. Needless to say it's not reserved anymore and is back on the market.
Some houses are still selling down here (South Hampshire) and expensive ones aswell. But the Spring bounce hasn't sprung yet IMO.
cyril
Yes I agree, I was very tempted to get in last Dec/Jan time looking at the actual cost of money ie houses were 20% off but money was another 30% off (ie interest rates at 3.5% instead of 5.5%) making things look sensible to me (and quite a few others as it turned out.
However with concern about not just what was going out but what may come back in I sit here about £100k tax free worse off than if I had bought about a year ago.
But if things do turn nasty after the election, which I suspect they might.... well let's just see what happens.
7. markj69 str05 said...
@str 6... Don't be too disheartened, you'd have only lost £100K had you been able to 'flip' your investment within the timescale. I certainly wouldn't want to be selling at the moment!
What i'd really like to see is the stats on actual prices for 'flipped' properties YoY. Rather than the averages which can be calculated to achieve a required outcome (Seasonally adjusted!), and are also influenced by several variable (Number of high value properties sold, area, etc...).
I also agree with you comment:
'But if things do turn nasty after the election, which I suspect they might.... well let's just see what happens.'
So true. So very very true.
8. fubar said...
Doomwatch said:
"Even a broken watch is right twice a day" Well I beg to differ, my broken digital watch just says 99:-L when I put a battery in it. Which seems to sum up many commentators when it comes to the economy/recovereh/unwinding disaster that is afoot.
9. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...
Between May (when I moved here) to Christmas I watched the house at the end of the road with interest.
Since it has just appeared on Mouseprice I now know what happened.
May to November. On the market for £400K. Sold STC twice falling through each time.
Early December. Price increased to £415K and it sold
.
.
.
.
.
.
For £380K
Makes a bit of a nonsense of Rightmove asking prices.
10. alan_540 said...
tenyears... sounds like a pretty good result for the seller.
11. Smiling said...
blimey daddy bear...if this is the coup de grace, it's a sad day for doomsters. After all, this is the same capital economics that predicted 35% fall 2008-2010!
For anyone on this site, still clinging on to hopes of owing a house anytime soon, please don't look at american job numbers today.
Mind you the way doomsters normally work, +224,000 on the job numbers is good because interest rates will go up, which in turn will kill the recovery and all the good folk at HPC will get a house with cash from the tinpot under the bed...
12. smugdog said...
Pat yourselves on the backs my boys, with 2010 already in the bag.
However, news from my contacts in the construction machinery
manufacturing industry inform me that it has gone absolutely
manic in the last month, both home and OEM's.
Considering this was the first industry to go into free fall going into
the recession, it appears an excellent indicator going forward.
Are my contacts dependable? Take a good look at who supports George's pledge.