Thursday, Apr 08, 2010
As Mad as a March Hare?
Halifax: March: +1.1% MoM +5.2%YoY
"House prices increased by 1.1% in March, partly offsetting February's 1.6% fall. This was the eighth rise in the past nine months, taking the average price to 9.1% above the low point reached last April.
....
There are signs that an increase in the number of properties available for sale is beginning to reduce the imbalance between supply and demand. This should help to contain the upward pressure on house prices."
Posted by phdinbubbles @ 09:13 AM (2089 views) Add Comment
18 Comments
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1. 51ck-6-51x said...
Click here for a PDF.
2. mrflibble said...
If I go see a psychiatrist and explain to him that the majority of the UK population is completely nuts and that I am perfectly sane he would rapidly conclude that it is me who needs to spend some quality time in a rubber room.
Sanity in the UK obviously comes in the form of licking the Estate Agents window where the 7x your income houses are listed...
My conclusion - the majority of the UK population is nuts - call the men in the white suits - another hpc loon is on the loose...
3. mark wadsworth said...
"Whatever it takes"
Also, what Mr Flib says.
4. greenshootsandleaves said...
One semi in Croydon (asking price £415,000) is certainly doing its bit to ease the supply shortage: it is now unexpectedly re-available after being 'sold STC' no fewer than three times. Any advance on 3?
5. Superted187 said...
I would echo greenshootsandleaves.
I've seen several properties being listed as "sold" only to be re-listed a few days later
6. mark said...
houseprices going up is good how?
7. amjidk said...
WTF?
8. becky said...
Looking at the price/earnings ratio in the table, it seems they are using the National average price against the earnings for London males!!! Surely this is stretching credibility a bit? If you’re going to be regionalising the earnings then shouldn’t you be comparing it with that same regions house prices (i.e. London)?
9. doomwatch said...
mrflibble @2. I've felt like this since 2002 and the wife actually thinks I'm a nutter. I warned on this web site MANY
years ago that the fabric of UK society would be broken by the madness of property speculation and house
price inflation. Nobody listens to me though as I'm not an Eton stooge.
10. amjidk said...
the higher the prices go, the bigger the fall, will be, i think the tax rises after the election will (hopefully) do the trick..
11. 51ck-6-51x said...
heh just tried my earlier link... oops!
Actually, click HERE for a PDF - sorry.
12. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
The price price index has no realistic relevance whilst base rates are at 0.5%.
A general election and hardly a mention of house prices being far too high - all parties seem scared of facing the issue...
I would imagine most parties would look at those figures and relate to them as being a positive indicator - when the truth is far from that.
13. 51ck-6-51x said...
becky said, "it seems they are using the National average price against the earnings for London males"
- Yep, it does not look right. Taking Nov 2009 as the reference (since it was the time of the last ASHE release by the ONS):
typical house P = £167,451
P/E = 4.66
-> E = £691.0
But E should be 531.1 for "full-time male employees" putting the correct P/E at 6.06.
N.B. Average full-time London male E = 689.9, so if they used that the P/E should have been 4.67. Maybe they rounded to the nearest £/week first.
Are you going to email them?
14. timmy t said...
Don't forget the other fantastic news - petrol is now £1.20 a litre... price rises are good, isn't that right?
15. 51ck-6-51x said...
becky
OK... they are using mean earnings, not median earnings (the headline ASHE numbers are median)
However, looking at the same ONS data this only gives April 2009 (not Nov) and stood at £643.0 per week (gross), whereas they seem to be using 686.1 (even if they double count the overtime et al they'd only get to 683.1) and estimates start in Feb.
Hmm.
Regardless this is still not a great measure, since the house price is "mix adjusted" which is attempting to find the "typical" house - this is more like a median than a mean.
Of course a better measure would be Price / Median Available Income ...where the denominator would account for implicit outgoings like tax, basic food and utilities.
16. becky said...
5@ 1ck-6-51x
Thanks for that. I think it's quite important to focus on these figures because they are part of what the commentators use over the years to show if houses are over or underpriced. Like you say, it seems they're using a "median" for the house but a "mean" for the salary which is a bit dubious!! If you "mix adjust" one then you should "mix adjust" the other.
Finally, I've said this before but don't see how they can still get away with basing it on just male earnings. This was probably a valid assumption 30-40 years ago when housebuyer=male but times have changed since then. Perhaps we should get Harriet on to it!!
17. paranoia blue said...
becky @ 16
Agree with your point, completely.
However, please don’t use the term “Harriet” - you may well be censored by admin for inappropriate language ;)
18. Property Babe said...
This is before the stamp duty cut has had an affect. Expect to see 10% year-on-year just in time for the election.
Ful marks for effort though - "This will lead to a bigger crash" and "I know a house that hasn't sold so the Nationwide and Halifax are both wrong." How about "It's low volumes so it doesn't count."
ROFL